The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 3 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, let’s go game-by-game instead.
Miami Heat (-1) @ San Antonio Spurs — 221.5 total
Heat (111.25 implied points)
The Heat lead the slate in implied team total, which makes sense given their matchup. The Spurs have really struggled defensively this season, ranking just 24th in defensive efficiency.
The big injury to monitor for the Heat is Tyler Herro. He’s missed the past two games because of a knee injury, and he’s considered questionable for today’s contest.
Jimmy Butler stands out as the top option on the Heat, particularly on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. That’s a really low price tag for Butler, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.55 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool).
He leads the team with 12 Pro Trends, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75 ranks second.
After Butler, it’s hard to decipher who to target for Miami. Bam Adebayo has been excellent for the Heat this season, but his play has fallen off a bit recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.03 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of those contests. He scored just 39.00 DraftKings points in his last game, yet his salary still jumped from $8,200 to $8,800 for today’s matchup. He also has the worst individual matchup on the (+0.61 Opponent Plus/Minus).
Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Butler (22) of the Miami Heat.
Still, it’s hard to completely write him off on a two game slate. He owns the third-highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and his recent play should result in modest ownership.
Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic stand out as excellent value plays on FanDuel. Both players own a Bargain Rating of at least 95%. Nunn is the starter and should be expected to play more minutes, while Dragic has been more effective on a per-minute basis and is slightly cheaper.
Meyers Leonard looks like a nice value option on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,700, and he’s currently projected for 27.2 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a lot of playing time for such a minimal salary, and players with comparable minute projections and price tags have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.94.
Finally, Herro could be worth some consideration if he’s able to suit up. He’s increased his production to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he wouldn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $4,500 salary. Make sure to monitor his status using the new Labs Insider tool.
Spurs (110.25 implied points)
The Spurs’ implied team total ranks second on the slate, and they’re currently dealing with a couple of injuries as well. Rudy Gay is listed as doubtful for this contest, while Dejounte Murray is questionable.
It’s really hard to ignore LaMarcus Aldridge at just $6,900 on DraftKings. His numbers have been down recently — he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six games — but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of the nine games prior. Overall, Aldridge has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.40 with a comparable price tag as a member of the Spurs, so this seems like a nice buy-low opportunity.
Aldridge’s poor numbers can likely be attributed to the stellar play of DeMar DeRozan. He has quietly been one of the best players in fantasy recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.59 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his production to 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over that time frame.
DeRozan has been priced up pretty aggressively — his salary has increased by +$1,500 over the past month — but that’s still too cheap if he’s going to continue to produce like he has recently.
Pictured: Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan (10), Photo Credit: Michael Reaves-Getty Images
DeRozan and Aldridge both own 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied for the most at the position. Both players are projected for significant ownership, but it might make sense to choose just one of them. They have a correlation of just +0.02, so it seems unlikely that both will put up GPP-winning performances in the same game.
Most of the fantasy value on the Spurs is concentrated around those two players, but they do have some interesting options in the backcourt. Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes, and Derrick White are all priced between $3,400 and $4,100 on DraftKings, and all three are projected for between 23.4 and 25.8 minutes. White has been the best producer by a wide margin recently, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute, which makes him the preferred target for guaranteed prize pools. He also stands out on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 74%. Forbes has been the least productive of the trio, but his 80% Bargain Rating is the top mark on DraftKings.
Speaking of bargains, it’s impossible to ignore Trey Lyles at $3,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, which makes him one of the best values on the entire slate. He’s not expected to see a ton of minutes, but he has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Lonnie Walker and Marco Belinelli each saw a spike in playing time with Gay and Murray out of the lineup in their last game, and both players posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Neither player offers a ton of upside, but they would enter the punt play conversation if both players are ruled out again.
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets (-1) — 213.5 total
Pacers (106.25 implied points)
The Pacers own the lowest implied team total on the slate, and for the most part, they’re pretty healthy. The only real injury they’re dealing with is Jeremy Lamb, who popped up on Saturday’s injury report with a hip injury. He’s officially listed as questionable. The Nuggets have been one of the worst matchups in fantasy this season — they rank 10th in defensive efficiency and 29th in pace — so the Pacers will likely be the lowest-owned team on the slate.
That said, it would be a mistake to write them off completely. For starters, Malcolm Brogdon remains priced down across the industry. His $6,800 salary on FanDuel is particularly egregious, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his three games since returning from injury. He’s yet to return to his full pre-injury workload, but he’s still projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Brogdon has averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage in 31.5 minutes.
Domantas Sabonis also has the ability to put up a ton of fantasy points. His ceiling projection of 62.4 DraftKings points ranks first on the slate, yet his $7,900 salary makes him just the fifth-most expensive option. He also leads all players with 13 Pro Trends, and his individual matchup isn’t as bad as some of his teammates. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.51.
Myles Turner was playing next to Sabonis a lot early in the season, but his playing time has waned a bit recently. That said, he’s actually been more effective, increasing his fantasy output to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged 29.5 DraftKings points per game over that time frame. He’s a viable option at $5,700.
T.J. Warren is coming off a huge game in his last outing, scoring 42.0 FanDuel points over 33.5 minutes vs. the Timberwolves. That continues a string of excellent recent performances: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.40 over his past 10 games. He’s been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but his $5,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Justin Holiday is a low-upside player — which is not ideal for GPPs — but he does provide a lot of minutes at a cheap price tag. He’s currently projected for 28.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
Aaron Holiday has started with Lamb out of the lineup recently, so he’d be an interesting target if Lamb is ruled out today. Holiday has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is elite for a $3,800 player.
Nuggets (107.25 implied points)
The Nuggets’ implied team total is only slightly higher than the Pacers, but their injury situation makes them a much more appealing target. Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and Paul Millsap have all been ruled out for today’s contest, which definitely increases the value for the rest of the roster.
Of course, any analysis of the Nuggets has to start with Nikola Jokic. It’s nearly impossible to predict what you’re going to get from Jokic on a given night, but he should offer a bit more stability with the team being shorthanded. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.0% with Harris, Murray, and Millsap off the court this season, and he played a whopping 43.8 minutes in their last contest. That game did go to overtime, but that still puts Jokic on pace for around 38 minutes on today’s slate.
Credit: Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Will Barton stands out as one of the strongest plays of the day on FanDuel. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.2% with all three injured players off the court this season, and his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.05 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, and he’s also coming off more than 43 minutes in his last game.
Malik Beasley finished third on the team in minutes in that contest despite coming off the bench. He played more than 39 minutes, which makes him an interesting option at $4,500 on FanDuel. There’s no guarantee he sees that much playing time again today, but he doesn’t need to given his average of 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Michael Porter Jr. entered the league with a tremendous amount of upside, but injury concerns caused him to slip further than expected in the draft. He missed all of last year with injuries, but he looks fully healthy now. He’s been dominant in his past two games, scoring 43.5 and 39.1 FanDuel points despite playing less than 29.5 minutes in both contests. Overall, he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has the opportunity to play plenty of minutes given their current injury situation. He’s a steal at $5,200 on FanDuel.
Jerami Grant, Monte Morris, and Torrey Craig all started in their last game, but none of them finished with as many minutes as Beasley or MPJ. I wouldn’t expect a big bounce back from Craig, but Grant and Morris both have appeal as buy-low options. Grant could certainly see a few additional minutes in this contest, while Morris has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Last but not least is Mason Plumlee, who might be the biggest X-factor on the team. He played nearly 27 minutes in their last game and has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. That said, he’s more expensive than most of the other value options on the team. He has nice upside, but he also has some bust potential if he sees a reduction in minutes.
Photo credit: Garrett Ellwood-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured above: Nuggets SF Will Barton
