The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Luka Doncic continues to put together some absurd stat lines in his second NBA season. He’s coming off 33 points, 18 rebounds, and five assists yesterday vs. the Pelicans, and he did it in just 28.5 minutes. Overall, he’s averaged 1.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and only Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in the same stratosphere over that time frame.
He’s in a great spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. They’ve played at the fourth-fastest pace this season, and the Mavericks’ implied team total of 117.0 is the top mark on the slate. Doncic is a particularly strong option on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Kris Dunn has been an excellent fantasy producer this season, averaging 0.96 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s started to see more playing time recently. He’s played at least 29.4 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s currently projected for 29.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries, minute projections, and per-minute averages have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.57 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Dunn also has an excellent matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve struggled defensively this season, giving Dunn an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82.
The Hawks are dealing with a bunch of injury concerns at the moment. Allen Crabbe and De’Andre Hunter have both been ruled out, while Kevin Huerter will be limited to just 15-20 minutes.
That should result in an increased workload for Trae Young in an amazing matchup vs. the Nets. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position. He also leads all FanDuel point guards with 11 Pro Trends.
Damian Lillard stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He has a tough matchup vs. the Kings, who have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, but Lillard has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69 with a comparable price tag. He’s also projected for just 9-12% ownership, which makes him an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The Jazz will be without Mike Conley today, which makes Donovan Mitchell an appealing stud option at SG. He has the potential to post an increased usage rate and assist rate with Conley out of the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
Mitchell has also seen his price drop by -$700 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $7,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
The Hawks have two interesting value options at the SG position on FanDuel. DeAndre Bembry should make his fourth start of the season, and he’s been fantastic in his first three opportunities to run with the first unit. He’s averaged 35.5 FanDuel points in those contests, and he’s logged at least 29.6 FanDuel points in each. That kind of production would make him an awesome value at just $4,700.
Evan Turner is more of a wildcard. He’s not expected to see as much playing time — he’s currently projected for just 22.1 minutes — but he has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s dirt cheap at just $3,600 and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.35.
Jimmy Butler is coming off his best game of the season yesterday vs. the Toronto Raptors, scoring 62.25 DraftKings points in 41.1 minutes. That game did go to overtime, but he should see another increased workload today with Goran Dragic out of the lineup. He’s underpriced at $7,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Buddy Hield has carried a massive workload for the Kings recently, who have been playing without De’Aaron Fox. He’s logged at least 37 minutes in each of his past four games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of them. Bogdan Bogdanovic is currently listed as questionable, and Hield would become one of the strongest options of the day if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to absolute dominate for the Milwaukee Bucks. He’s on pace to set new career-highs in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, and he’s still contributing an average of 2.7 blocks + steals on the defense end. Add it all up, and he’s averaged a mind-boggling 1.96 DraftKings points per minute this season.
The only problem with Giannis has been that the Bucks have been blowing so many teams out of the water. They’ve won their last two games by an average of 41.5 points, which has limited Giannis to an average of just 20.8 minutes per game. Not even Giannis is capable of paying off his lofty price tag in such limited minutes.
Hopefully, that won’t be a concern today vs. the Detroit Pistons. Milwaukee is currently favored by just 8.5 points on the road, which means we might actually get to see Giannis play at least 30 minutes. If that happens, he has the potential to be the highest scoring player on the slate by a wide margin.
Harrison Barnes is someone you’re never excited to roster, but he’s been getting the job done recently. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past month on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$500 over that time frame.
His current $5,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%, and he should see another healthy workload for the shorthanded Kings. He struggled in his last contest, but he averaged 33.4 FanDuel points over his four previous contests.
Evan Fournier has been on a major tear recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.34 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games. He’s taken advantage of the absence of Nikola Vucevic, which is not surprising given his average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in that situation this season.
Bojan Bogdanovic has seen his price drop by -$800 on DraftKings after his last game, which makes him an interesting buy-low option today. He’s increased his average to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Conley off the court this season, and he has the potential to see a few additional minutes on today’s slate.
Anthony Davis has not been able to duplicate his success with the Pelicans in his first year with the Lakers. His usage rate has remained largely intact — his 30.6% usage rate with the Lakers is actually higher than his mark last season — but his field goal percentage of 48.0% would be a new career-low. With that in mind, he’s a candidate for positive regression moving forward.
He’s a particularly interesting buy-low option on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by -$600 over the past month, and his current $9,400 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. Davis hasn’t had a comparable price tag very often, but he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.08 in those situations.
Frank Kaminsky is one of the best pure values of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 33.4 minutes in his last outing. His matchup vs. the Magic is not ideal — it results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.03 — but it’s hard to pass up that kind of production at such a low price tag.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and the lone exception was when he fouled out in just 19.3 minutes.
He has the potential to carry a large workload today for the Grizzlies, who will be without Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke. Jonas Valanciunas is also questionable, and his absence wouldn’t leave a ton of depth behind Jackson in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt.
Jabari Parker has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential to see a few additional minutes today given the Hawks’ current injury situation. His price has decreased by nearly -$1,000 since its peak on DraftKings, and his matchup vs. the Nets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93.
Andre Drummond has struggled a bit since Blake Griffin rejoined the rotation, which has caused his salary drop by -$1,900 over the past month on DraftKings. That makes him an elite target today vs. the Bucks, who have struggled against opposing centers this season. Drummond owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86, and he posted a Plus/Minus of +1.76 in his first matchup vs. the Bucks this season.
Drummond leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Wendell Carter Jr. has seen a nice boost in playing time recently, logging at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past five games. He’s coming off 37.4 minutes in his last contest, and he’s going to be an interesting fantasy option if he continues to see that much playing time. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with an increased role.
Bam Adebayo has displayed a nice ceiling recently, scoring at least 42.0 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. He remains pretty reasonably priced at just $7,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Rudy Gobert has been an awesome value over his past 10 games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.21 on FanDuel. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.25 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$400 over that time frame. He has a tough matchup vs. the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.87, but he’s underpriced at $7,800 on FanDuel.
Photo credit: USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Mavericks F Luka Doncic (left), Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo (right)