NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Jan. 11): Bounce Back Spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo

Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Jrue Holiday missed some time recently with an illness, and the team took it easy on him when he returned to the lineup. He played 19.5 minutes or fewer in his first two contests, and he also sat out on the second leg of a back-to-back.

However, Holiday returned to his usual workload in the team’s last contest, racking up 33.8 minutes vs. the Knicks. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he’s undoubtedly underpriced at $7,200 on DraftKings. His salary has gotten as high as $8,600 over the past month, and it reached $9,000 earlier this season. Holiday has had to take on a slightly larger role with Khris Middleton unavailable for most of the year, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season. Add in an excellent matchup vs. the Hawks, and this is a great buy-low opportunity with the veteran guard.

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Value

We’re still waiting on the Suns’ injury report for the second leg of their back-to-back set, but they were absolutely decimated on Tuesday. The team was without Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Cam Payne, and Cameron Johnson, opening up tons of value with the rest of the roster.

There’s a chance that Paul is able to return on Wednesday, but if he’s out, Duane Washington Jr. should continue to provide outstanding value in the backcourt. He’s been a usage monster for the Suns recently, posting a usage rate of at least 32.5% in three straight games. He hasn’t played a ton of minutes in those contests, but he’s made up for it with elite per-minute efficiency. Washington has scored at least 27.0 DraftKings points in all three games, including at least 31.25 in his past two. Overall, he’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should continue to thrive when he’s on the floor.

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Fast Break

Ja Morant is a strong stud target on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. His average of 1.44 FanDuel points per minute is easily the top mark at the PG position, and his matchup vs. the Spurs comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22. The Grizzlies also lead the slate with a 126.0 implied team total.

Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso both stand out as solid value guards. Both players are projected for at least 27.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and both players are very affordable across the industry.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

We’re only halfway through his first season with New York, but it’s safe to say that Brunson is the Knicks’ best point guard in a really long time. There were plenty of skeptics when he signed a four-year, $104M contract this offseason – myself included – but he has been worth every penny. He has thrived after escaping Luka Doncic’s shadow, averaging 21.6 points and 6.5 assists per game.

Brunson has been even better recently. He’s taken on a massive workload since R.J. Barrett went down with a finger injury, increasing his usage rate by +6.6% over his past four contests. He’s also played at least 38.4 minutes in each game, and he’s coming off 59.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Brunson has been priced up over that time frame, but he draws one of the best possible matchups Tuesday vs. the Pacers. They rank fifth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency, so Brunson can continue to be relied upon if Barrett is sidelined.

Brunson is best utilized on FanDuel, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating and eligibility at both guard spots.

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Value

Mikal Bridges took over as one of the Suns’ top offensive options in their last game. He racked up 55.3 FanDuel points over 40.6 minutes, and he increased his usage rate to 21.0%. Bridges is not a particularly high-usage player – he has a usage rate of just 17.7% for the year – but he’s going to have to take on a larger role given their current injury situation. Despite his recent production, Bridges’ salary has actually decreased for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Nuggets, and his $6,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.

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Fast Break

Anthony Edwards is another strong target on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s increased his production to 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he draws a phenomenal matchup vs. the Pistons.

You can add Coby White to the list of appealing value options for the Bulls. He’s projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.86 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Bulls are another team that will be important to monitor on Wednesday. They’ve listed DeMar DeRozan as questionable, and he’s yet to miss a game this season.

If he’s unable to go, LaVine figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.1% with DeRozan off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. LaVine has also started to heat up after a relatively quiet start to the year. He’s racked up at least 44.5 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’s gone for at least 50.25 in three of them. That gives him a nice ceiling at his current price tag against a mediocre Wizards’ defense.

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Value

Landry Shamet was also sidelined for the Suns’ last game, but he seems most likely to return to the lineup on Wednesday. He was reportedly “begging” coach Williams to play on Tuesday, but the team decided to hold him out.

Shamet has been an excellent source of value in five games without Booker and Payne this season. He’s averaged 32.5 minutes in those contests and responded with an average of 26.6 DraftKings points per game. He erupted for 47.0 DraftKings points against the Nuggets on Christmas, so he can clearly find success in this matchup.

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson is back to playing around 30 minutes per game for the Timberwolves, and that’s enough for him to return value on most slates. He’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 31.0 DKFP in three of his past four games. He’s underpriced at $5,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%.

As usual, Jaylen Brown stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and Brown would get a boost if Marcus Smart or Robert Williams is ultimately ruled out.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ran into a tough matchup Monday vs. the Knicks, who are one of the best teams in basketball in terms of rebounding and defending the paint. Those are the areas where Giannis has thrived this season, and they were able to limit him to 46.0 DraftKings points in 36.4 minutes.

That doesn’t figure to be the case on Wednesday. The Hawks have been shredded on the interior this season, allowing the fifth-most points in the paint per game, and they also have the fifth-worst team rebound rate. If that’s not the perfect matchup for Giannis, I don’t know what is. He’s also a bit cheaper than usual at $11,800 after spending most of the year priced above $12,000.

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Value

Joe Ingles has had a quiet start to his Bucks’ tenure, with the team easing him back into action after suffering an ACL tear last year. However, he’s coming off 28.1 minutes in his last contest, and Ingles has displayed excellent upside for his price tag of late. He’s priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in two of his past five contests. Ingles shouldn’t command much ownership on this slate, making him an excellent GPP target in stars-and-scrubs builds.

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Fast Break

De’Andre Hunter has seen a nice spike in value for the Hawks recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 32.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four. His $5,000 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position.

Domantas Sabonis has turned in some excellent performances of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.58 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Sabonis has a dream matchup Wednesday vs. the Rockets, and the Kings’ implied team total of 123.25 ranks second on the slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Things have not gone well for Rudy Gobert in his first season with the Timberwolves. The team is struggling – they’re currently in ninth place in the Western Conference – and Gobert has averaged just 14.0 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. All three of those marks are among the worst of his career since taking over as a full-time starter.

However, Gobert has started to show some signs of life. He’s racked up three straight double-doubles, finishing with at least 34.25 DraftKings points in each. He’s had at least 44.5 DraftKings points in two of those contests, and his minutes have trended upward as well. Gobert should be able to keep the momentum rolling in a potential smash spot vs. the Pistons. They rank tied for last in defensive efficiency, and they’re 29th in terms of points in the paint allowed per game.

Value

Isaiah Stewart was a surprise scratch on Tuesday due to a shoulder injury, and the Pistons really can’t afford to lose any more big men. They’re already playing without Jalen Duren and Marvin Bagley, so Stewart is set for a big role if he can return to the court. He logged 35.1 minutes in his last contest and responded with 40.75 DraftKings points. Stewart has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season, so he should continue to provide value with a few additional minutes. The matchup vs. Gobert and the Timberwolves is tough, but Stewart is underpriced if he can suit up on Wednesday.

Fast Break

Alperen Sengun went through a brief slump, but he’s back to providing excellent fantasy value. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.52 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his minutes are trending in the right direction. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and Sengun has averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. If he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly underpriced at $6,300.

Jonas Valanciunas should continue to provide a bit more value than usual for the shorthanded Pelicans. He’s racked up at least 41.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and the team needs his offense with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out with injuries.