NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Nov. 29): Luka Doncic Eruption Spot?

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

There are only six teams to choose from on Tuesday, so this slate is lacking a bit for star power. However, the Mavericks are available, so Luka Doncic headlines the point guard position. Doncic has put together an incredible season for the Mavs, leading the team in points (33.1), assists (8.4), rebounds (8.7), and steals (1.7) per game. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute.

The scary thing is that Doncic has done all that while playing for the slowest team in the league. The Mavericks rank dead last in pace, so Luka typically has fewer possessions to rack up stats than other top players. That shouldn’t be an issue on Tuesday, with the Warriors playing at the fastest pace in the league. The Mavericks’ current implied team total of 113.25 points represents a sizable increase from their season average (109.1), which ranks just 27th in the league.

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Value

The Clippers are going to be very thin in the backcourt on Tuesday. John Wall will join Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Luke Kennard on the bench, and most of the Clippers’ remaining reserves are big men. That leaves the starting backcourt to handle most of the playing time at the guard spots.

That includes Reggie Jackson, who has turned things around after a slow start to the year. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.44 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his usage rate by +2.7% with all four of the current unavailable Clippers off the court. Jackson remains a bit underpriced on FanDuel at just $5,500, making him one of the better options at the position.

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Fast Break

The Knicks have been searching for a competent point guard for basically my entire life, but it seems they finally have one in Jalen Brunson. He’s been outstanding for the Knicks of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.03 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 45.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, and his $7,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

The Pistons’ injury report is going to be important to monitor on Tuesday. Cade Cunningham remains out, but Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Marvin Bagley are all questionable. If Ivey joins Cunningham on the sidelines, Killian Hayes will continue to run the team’s offense. He’s put together back-to-back games with at least 37.25 DraftKings points, and he leads the position with a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anfernee Simons hasn’t been asked to do quite as much this season as he did last year with Damian Lillard out of the lineup, but he’s still been very useable for fantasy purposes. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, and he’s currently projected for more than 38 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.5% with Lillard off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.12 DraftKings points per minute.

The Clippers represent a tough matchup, but Simons still has significant upside at his current price tag across the industry. He leads the SG position in ceiling projection by more than 13 points on DraftKings.

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Value

Terance Mann is another excellent source of value for the Clippers. He’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings, and he’s currently projected for more than 34 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.70 (per the Trends tool).

Mann has also seen one of the bigger boosts in value with George, Leonard, Wall, and Kennard off the floor this season. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, compared to just 0.76 for the year.

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Fast Break

Amir Coffey is the least appealing of the Clippers’ wings on Tuesday, but that should keep his ownership reasonable. He’s also expected to see around 30 minutes in this contest, and he’s dirt cheap at just $3,900 on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he doesn’t need to do much to return value vs. the Blazers.

Spencer Dinwiddie has increased his per-minute production to 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s another member of the Mavericks who should benefit from the pace-up spot vs. the Warriors, and his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.49 is the top mark at the position on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

There really are no studs to consider at small forward on this slate, with only three players priced above $5,700 on DraftKings. No one is priced above $6,800, so the pickings are slim at the top of the pricing spectrum.

R.J. Barrett stands out as the best choice if you’re “paying up.” Barrett hasn’t had the greatest season, but he continues to see tons of minutes under head coach Tom Thibodeau. He leads the position with approximately 37 projected minutes on Tuesday, and he’s averaged a healthy 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Knicks also have one of the best matchups of the day against a Pistons squad that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency.

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Value

Like Jackson, Norman Powell got off to a dreadful start to the season for the Clippers. He couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, shooting just 37.7% from the field and 22.6% from 3-point range in October.

However, he turned things around in November, and his shooting percentages are now back to around his career norms. That has unsurprisingly had a nice impact on his fantasy numbers, and he increased his output to 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He leads the team with a 31.4% usage rate with George, Leonard, Wall, and Kennard off the floor this season, so he should be able to return value against the Blazers.

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Fast Break

Justise Winslow hasn’t been quite as effective on a per-minute basis as he has been in the past, but that hasn’t stopped him from providing value of late. He’s played at least 37.2 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight contests. He leads the position with a +2.85 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

If the Pistons are shorthanded again, Saddiq Bey would be worth some consideration at $5,400 on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he posted a 24.3% usage rate with Ivey and Bogdanovic out of the lineup in their last contest.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jerami Grant is one of the most underrated players in the league. He spent most of the early part of his career as a role player, but he was able to put his full skill set on display in Detroit. He’s been able to combine the best of both worlds this season in Portland, and he’s carried a large workload recently with Lillard out of the lineup. He leads the team with a 29.7% usage rate in their last four games sans Lillard, and he’s had a usage rate of at least 30.4% in back-to-back games. Grant has unsurprisingly returned value in three straight contests, yet his price tag has remained stagnant at just $7,300 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, making him an excellent option.

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Value

We’re not quite done with the Clippers just yet. Marcus Morris Sr. has been arguably their best player with George and Leonard sidelined of late. He’s having one of the most efficient scoring seasons of his career, shooting 49.0% from the field and 39.0% from 3-point range, and he’s seen a team-high +8.6% usage bump with the four unavailable Clippers off the floor. That’s over a really small sample size, but it should surprise no one if he sees a nice usage spike on Tuesday. Morris has already averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has the potential for much more vs. the Blazers.

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Fast Break

The Warriors recently made the decision to stagger Steph Curry and Draymond Green’s minutes, and it has helped Green tremendously from a fantasy perspective. He’s racked up at least 11 dimes in two of his past three games, and he even managed 19 points in his last contest. That kind of scoring production is an outlier, but Green can still pile up the peripherals with the best of them.

Julius Randle shouldn’t carry a ton of ownership on this slate, making him an interesting option for tournaments. The Pistons have been one of the worst teams in the league at defending the paint, and Randle does a lot of his damage near the rim. He carries a bit more upside than usual in this spot.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Ivica Zubac erupted for a Wilt Chamberlain-like stat line on Sunday, finishing with 31 points and 29 rebounds. Only eight players in league history have had a 30-30 game, with Dwight Howard being the last to accomplish the feat. Zubac just narrowly missed out on joining that exclusive club, but he still finished with 76.75 DraftKings points.

That kind of performance is obviously an outlier, but Zubac does bring a pretty high ceiling to the table. He’s the type of player that can average well over a fantasy point per minute, but his playing time can be volatile on a night-to-night basis.

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Value

Mitchell Robinson is back to manning the middle for the Knicks, and he’s coming off 31.6 minutes in their last contest. He finished with 34.75 DraftKings points, and if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly underpriced. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $4,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

Jusuf Nurkic is the other high-priced player to consider at the position on Tuesday. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet, so he has multiple paths to value against the Clippers.

Kevon Looney is not the most exciting player to roster in DFS, but he’s typically reliable. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.86 on FanDuel this season, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 67% of his games.