NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Mar. 14): Buy Low on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been in and out of the lineup for the Thunder recently, but he is not listed on the injury report for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Nets. That suggests that he’ll suit up after missing their last game, and when SGA has been in the lineup recently, he’s handled a full workload. He’s played at least 36.1 minutes in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 55.0 DraftKings points in three of them.

SGA’s price tag has also plummeted to $9,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He was priced closer to $11,000 at times this season, and he’s actually increased his production to 1.51 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Ultimately, SGA has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.39 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), so he stands out as a clear buy vs. the Nets.

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Value

The Spurs are limping toward the finish line, and they’re going to be particularly thin at point guard on Tuesday. Tre Jones and Malaki Branham have both been ruled out, so Devonte’ Graham should earn his second straight start at the position. He racked up 31.8 minutes in the team’s last outing and responded with 31.75 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder.

Graham is currently projected for around 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a strong 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also draws an elite matchup vs. the Magic, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.46. That’s the top mark at the position, so he checks a lot of boxes on this slate.

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Fast Break

Killian Hayes was slightly disappointing in the Pistons’ last game, but he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus with 30.75 DraftKings points across 28.8 minutes. Hayes has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to carry a larger workload than usual given the team’s injury situation. He’s too cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Monte Morris is another fantastic value option at point guard. The Wizards are going to be without Kyle Kuzma on Tuesday, and Morris has increased his usage rate by +2.4% with Kuzma off the floor this season. He’s also increased his assist rate by +7.3% in four games without Kuzma and Rui Hachimura, resulting in an average of 26.45 FanDuel points per game. Morris also draws a juicy matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Wizards, Bradley Beal is an excellent stud target at $8,200 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and Beal has played some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, and he has at least 45.0 DraftKings points in five of his past six.

Unsurprisingly, Beal has also been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Kuzma out of the lineup this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.1% in five games without Kuzma and Hachimura, resulting in an average of 44.95 DraftKings points per game. Add it all up, and he is undoubtedly too cheap for a matchup vs. the Pistons.

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Value

We’re still waiting on the Pistons’ official injury report on the second leg of a back-to-back, but assuming they’re without Jaden Ivey and Alec Burks, R.J. Hampton should see a solid handful of minutes. He’s currently projected for 23 minutes at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and Hampton has averaged a respectable 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season. He played just over 24 minutes Monday vs. the Pacers and responded with 27.5 DraftKings points, and that kind of production seems repeatable. He stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Fast Break

Devin Vassell has posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games since returning to the lineup, but his fantasy arrow is pointing up. He’s logged at least 31.2 minutes in back-to-back games, including 33.2 minutes in his last outing. Vassell has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so better performances should be coming in the future. The Spurs have also listed Keldon Johnson as questionable, and Vassell leads the team with a 25.6% usage rate with Johnson off the floor this season.

Jalen Brunson is doubtful for the Knicks, so Immanuel Quickley should continue to handle most of the point guard responsibilities. Quickley has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s increased his production to 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for just under 34 minutes vs. the Blazers, and his $6,900 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Believe it or not, the top implied team total of the day belongs to the Magic. They’re currently implied for 119.25 points vs. the Spurs, which represents a massive increase from their season average of 111.6. Most of that stems from the matchup, with the Spurs ranking fifth in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency.

That makes Paolo Banchero a far more appealing target than usual. Banchero appeared to hit the rookie wall earlier this season, but he has picked up his play over the past few weeks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five of his past seven games, and he’s scored at least 38.0 FanDuel points in four of his past five outings. He’s a strong pay-up option on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%.

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Value

Caris LeVert is only eligible at shooting guard on DraftKings, but he has SG/SF eligibility on FanDuel. Regardless of where you play him, he stands out as an excellent option on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are going to be pretty shorthanded in a phenomenal matchup vs. the Hornets, with Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen both ruled out with injuries.

LeVert has moved into the starting lineup whenever Mitchell has been out this season, and he has thrived in that role. He’s averaged 33.2 minutes in 11 contests without Mitchell this season, and he’s responded with 30.5 DraftKings points per game. The Hornets represent a significant pace-up spot for the Cavaliers, so LeVert has outstanding upside at his current price tag across the industry.

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Fast Break

Deni Avdija is another member of the Wizards who should benefit from the absence of Kuzma. He’s seen a significant spike in playing time in six games without Kuzma and Hachimura this season, averaging 30.3 minutes per game. Avdija has averaged 26.96 DraftKings points in those contests, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s massively underpriced at $4,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Josh Hart’s price tag has dipped to just $5,600 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s handled a sizable workload since joining the Knicks, and Hart is projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, Hart has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

I think it’s safe to say that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s wrist is feeling pretty good. He returned to the lineup following a three-game absence on Monday and was as dominant as ever, racking up 64.4 FanDuel points in just under 34 minutes. He scored 46 points on a 47.4% usage rate while adding 12 rebounds, four assists, and one steal.

There’s always the chance that Giannis could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, but as long as he’s in the lineup, very few players on this slate can match his upside. He’s averaged 1.75 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and Nikola Jokic is the only other player above 1.55. Giannis is also the clear best value among the mega studs on FanDuel, where his $11,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

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Value

Eugene Omoruyi put together a huge game for the shorthanded Pistons on Monday. He totaled 17 points, six boards, two assists, and three steals across 32 minutes, resulting in 34.0 DraftKings points. That’s probably on the high side of what you can expect from Omoruyi on Tuesday, but he’s projected for another 32 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s another player who seems massively underpriced on DraftKings, where his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

Evan Mobley carries much more appeal than usual with Mitchell and Allen out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.3% with Mitchell, Allen, and Kevin Love off the floor this season, which is the top mark on the squad. His average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario also represents a significant increase from his average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute for the year.

Mobley is also popping in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations tool:

If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Cavaliers, Cedi Osman is worth some consideration on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s increased his production to 0.80 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell, Allen, and Love off the court. His playing time can be a bit volatile, but he should see at least 20 minutes given the team’s current injury situation.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Kristaps Porzingis is coming off a dreadful performance in his last contest, finishing with just 25.7 FanDuel points vs. the 76ers. That said, he was limited to just 25.1 minutes in a blowout loss, and going up against Joel Embiid and the 76ers is about as tough a matchup as possible for a big man. Things should be significantly easier against the Pistons, and Porzingis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25 on FanDuel.

Porzingis also figures to benefit from the absence of Kuzma. He leads the team with 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with Kuzma and Hachimura off the floor, and he’s projected for more than 35 minutes in our NBA Models. Porzingis has cleared 50 fantasy points in three of his past six games, and he’s in a great spot to do it again on Tuesday.

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Value

Wendell Carter Jr. stands out as a phenomenal value on DraftKings, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.23, and he’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Carter is coming off 47.75 DraftKings points across 41.6 minutes in his last outing, and that was against a significantly tougher opponent in the Heat. He won’t see as much playing time on Tuesday, but he can make up for it with better efficiency.

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Fast Break

Anthony Davis has been slightly disappointing of late, but he can continue to be targeted with LeBron James sidelined. He’s averaged 54.22 DraftKings points per game in 15 games without James this season, and he’s projected for around 10% ownership across the industry.

Mark Williams remains out for the Hornets, so Nick Richards should handle most of the center minutes Tuesday vs. the Cavaliers. It’s a tough matchup, but Richards has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s projected for just under 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $5,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.