NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Jan. 31): Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic?

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Tuesday’s matchup between the Hornets and Bucks has some blowout potential, with the Bucks listed as 11-point home favorites. However, this game also has massive fantasy appeal if the Hornets keep things competitive. The total currently sits at 244.0 points, which is the top mark on the slate by 12 points.

LaMelo Ball stands out as an elite point guard option on FanDuel, where he is priced at a comically low $8,000. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Ball has averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute this season. Ball has had a comparable salary in eight previous contests this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.70 (per the Trends tool). His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position, and he leads the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus. That makes him very tough to avoid.

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Value

The Cavaliers have taken it easy on Ricky Rubio since returning from an ACL injury he suffered last season. He’s yet to eclipse 20 minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from providing some fantasy value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on DraftKings, and Rubio can do damage quickly. Rubio has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 19.1 minutes in his last outing. Rubio doesn’t have the greatest ceiling, but he has the potential to provide decent value at just $3,200.

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Fast Break

Immanuel Quickley is another potential source of value at the position. He’s seen a slight reduction in playing time since R.J. Barrett returned to the lineup, but he’s still projected for just under 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Quickley has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 26.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. The Lakers also represent an excellent matchup, ranking fifth in pace and tied for 20th in defensive efficiency.

The Lakers are going to have LeBron James and Anthony Davis back in the lineup on Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean you can’t use Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is priced at just $6,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and his average of 1.24 FanDuel points per minute is the top mark among Tuesday’s point guards. He’s still projected for around 30 minutes vs. the Knicks, so he has the potential to pay off this reduced price tag.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Shooting guard is the weakest position on Tuesday’s slate. Only five players are projected for a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and all of them are $5,100 or cheaper. That makes it a good position to save some salary.

If you are paying up, Paul George is probably your best option. He’s seen a reduction in value with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, but he still has the top ceiling at the position. He erupted for 61.0 DraftKings points two games ago, and he has at least 42.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five.

If you are paying up for George, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel given his 96% Bargain Rating.

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Value

Grayson Allen stands out in a tier of his own at the position on DraftKings. He’s played some of his best basketball recently, increasing his production to 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Allen has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past seven games, including three games with at least 28.25 DraftKings points.

Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Hornets, and Allen is the clear top option from a value perspective.

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Fast Break

Jrue Holiday has SG eligibility on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.26 over his past 10 games. He has failed to return value in three of his past four outings, but two of them have been blowout wins. He’s played 30.3 minutes or less in those contests, and Holiday typically plays closer to 35 minutes in competitive outings. Overall, he’s a nice bounce-back target.

Quentin Grimes is another potential value option. He’s very affordable across the industry, and he’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Lakers. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.98. Grimes is a poor per-minute producer, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James is an interesting contrarian option on Tuesday’s slate. He’s projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings, which makes sense with Davis back in the lineup. James is still priced like Davis is sidelined at $11,600, so most DFS players are expected to focus their attention elsewhere.

Still, James has been balling regardless of who he’s been sharing the court with recently. He’s coming off 66.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, and that was with Davis in the lineup. He’s also posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.08 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.

The Knicks are a subpar matchup, but getting some shares of James at virtually no ownership makes some sense in tournaments.

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Value

Pat Connaughton is another potential value option for the Bucks. He hasn’t been quite as good as Allen on a per-minute basis recently, but his average of 0.75 DraftKings points per minute is still respectable. He’s also expected to see a few additional minutes, with Connaughton currently projected for 30.2 minutes in our NBA Models.

Given the matchup and how good the Bucks have been offensively of late, getting a few pieces from this contest is definitely advised.

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Fast Break

You can add Zach LaVine to the list of underpriced studs on FanDuel. His $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his dual SG/SF eligibility gives him a bit more flexibility as well. Even in a bit of a down year, LaVine has still managed an average Plus/Minus of +4.42 with a comparable salary this season.

Herb Jones warrants some attention on DraftKings, where he’s priced at just $4,200. The Pelicans are getting a bit healthier, but they’re still playing without Zion Williamson in their frontcourt. That should leave a solid handful of minutes for Jones, who has scored at least 21.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six games. He’s averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has some appeal at his current price tag.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has certainly looked studly over his past three games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them, and he’s scored at least 70.5 DraftKings points in his past two. He’s taken his already sky-high usage rate and cranked in to 11 in those contests, posting an average usage rate of 45.6% over his past three games.

The scary part is that Giannis hasn’t even played many minutes recently. He finished with 73.75 DraftKings points in just 30.3 minutes on Sunday, which is insane per-minute production. Giannis ultimately seems like he’s on a mission at the moment, and the Hornets are certainly not the team that is going to slow him down. They rank 20th in points in the paint allowed per game and 19th in team rebound rate, so Giannis should be able to keep the good times rolling.

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Value

Patrick Williams has quietly taken a step forward over the past month. He’s still not going to blow you away with his per-minute production, but he’s increased his output to 0.79 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame. That’s a solid figure for someone who costs just $4,900. He’s played at least 30.7 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He’s gone for at least 31.0 DraftKings points in two of those contests, so he has some upside as well.

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Fast Break

As good as Giannis is, you could make a case that Julius Randle is the better stud at the position from a per-dollar perspective. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where Randle is -$3,000 cheaper than Giannis and owns a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s averaged a studly 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and the Lakers rank just 25th in terms of points in the paint allowed per game. This is also a #RevengeGame for Randle if you’re into that sort of thing.

Larry Nance Jr. isn’t expected to see a ton of playing time for the Pelicans, but he’s typically pretty efficient with his minutes. He’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He’s gone for at least 24.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five, making him a solid selection at $4,100.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is coming off a rare subpar performance Sunday vs. the 76ers. That said, I think we can give him a pass. Not only was that game played at a slightly weird time, but he had to battle with an angry Joel Embiid. Embiid is one of the best defensive centers in basketball, so that’s a tough ask for anyone.

Still, it’s not like Jokic was a disaster in that contest. He finished with 24 points, eight boards, and nine assists, giving him nearly another triple-double. He’s now triple-doubled in six of his past eight games, and he’s fallen just two rebounds and two assists shy in his two misses.

Jokic has been the safest producer in fantasy this season, and he has plenty of upside as well. He might not have quite as much upside vs. the Pelicans as Giannis does vs. the Hornets, but he should come at a significant ownership discount. He’s projected for less than 15% ownership on DraftKings, while Giannis is projected for nearly 32%.

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Value

Mark Williams has served as the backup to Mason Plumlee this season, and he’s provided solid useability in that role. He typically plays between 18 and 20 minutes per game, and he’s averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He remains too cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.

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Fast Break

Isaiah Hartenstein is another potential value option at the position. He’s not nearly the same per-minute producer as Williams, but his minutes are a bit more secure. The Knicks are currently without starting center Mitchell Robinson, and Hartenstein has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He’s also underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 82%.

The Bucks are still without Bobby Portis, so Brook Lopez should continue to handle most of the center minutes in Milwaukee. He’s scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 35.0 DraftKings points in 32 minutes on Sunday.