NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Feb. 7): Target LeBron in his Chase for History?

Tuesday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props on Monkey Knife Fight.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Jalen Brunson is coming off a slightly disappointing performance in his last contest, finishing with 39.25 DraftKings points. However, he continues to play all the minutes he can handle. He racked up more than 39 minutes in that contest, and he’s played at least 38.4 minutes in four of his past five games.

Brunson could be asked to do even more than usual on Tuesday. R.J. Barrett is questionable with an illness, and Brunson has seen a team-high +3.3% usage bump with Barrett off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he’s averaged 39.1 minutes and 45.85 DraftKings points in five full games without Barrett this season.

Even if Barrett is able to go, Brunson stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. His $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.

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Value

The Nets are going to be an important team to monitor on Tuesday. There’s a chance that new acquisitions Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith could be available to make their debuts, but their statuses are currently unknown. T.J. Warren could also rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, while Kevin Durant remains sidelined.

If Dinwiddie is unavailable, Edmond Sumner should continue to serve as one of the team’s top backcourt options. He’s started each of the past two games, and he’s responded with 40.0 and 36.75 DraftKings points. He’s played at least 32.6 minutes in both contests, and Sumner has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Despite his recent production, his salary has barely budged on DraftKings. He’s still priced at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. The Suns are a tough matchup, but Sumner is simply too cheap to pass up if Dinwiddie is inactive.

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Fast Break

Jamal Murray has been a phenomenal source of value for the Nuggets recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.93 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His price has slowly crept up, but he draws an elite matchup Tuesday vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 121.75 ranks third on the slate.

Trae Young is down to $9,400 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that number. Young has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.15 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), and he’s scored at least 47.8 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. This also stands out as a solid matchup vs. the Pelicans, with the 237.0-point total ranking second on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram got the night off on Sunday, and the Pelicans cruised to an easy 32-point win without him. He’s expected to return to the lineup Tuesday vs. the Hawks and should step right back into his usual role. He’s currently projected for more than 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Ingram has scored at least 45.75 DraftKings points in two straight games, and he should continue to do a bit more scoring than usual with Zion Williamson out of the lineup.

Ingram is way too cheap at $7,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 82%. His 11 Pro Trends also rank first at the shooting guard position.

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Value

Cam Thomas is another elite value target for the Nets on DraftKings. His $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Thomas has been ridiculously good in his last two outings. He came off the bench two games ago, and he racked up 59.0 DraftKings points in just 29.1 minutes. He moved into the starting lineup on Monday and responded with another 58.0 DraftKings points.

Thomas is due for some shooting regression – he’s shot 59.6% from the field and 68.8% from 3-point range in his past two contests – but Thomas is a certified bucket. He’s played at least 26 minutes in 24 career games, and he’s averaged 30.8 DraftKings points in those contests. He should exceed that threshold again on Tuesday, and he clearly has elite upside for his price tag.

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Fast Break

The Pelicans getting healthier is a negative for C.J. McCollum’s fantasy stock, but his salary has seen a massive decrease recently. He was priced as high as $9,100 on FanDuel in January, but he’s down to just $7,600 Tuesday vs. the Hawks. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and McCollum has still averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again.

DeMar DeRozan wasn’t really needed Monday vs. the Spurs, and he chipped in just 19 points in a 24-point win. DeRozan has now posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, but he’s still been a solid source of value for most of the year. He’s down to just $8,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.

NBA Small Forward DFS Picks

Stud

LeBron James is obviously going to be a focal point of Tuesday’s slate. He’s just 36 points from becoming the league’s all-time scoring leader, passing the legendary Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. There’s a very legit chance that happens on Tuesday. The Thunder have played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and the Lakers’ implied team total of 122.75 ranks first on the slate.

If there’s one thing that DFS players love, it’s a good storyline. There’s a chance that LeBron tries to go all out and break this record tonight, but he could also do it at home Thursday vs. the Bucks. His numbers have been down since Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, and LeBron has scored 46.75 DraftKings points or fewer in back-to-back games. His salary is up to $11,200 on DraftKings, and he’s a candidate to be over-owned on this slate.

If you are going to play LeBron, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel at $10,300.

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Value

Herb Jones is not the most exciting player to roster in DFS. He’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and most of what he does best doesn’t show up in the box score. Still, it’s hard to ignore him at $4,900. He’s projected for a whopping 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.76.

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Fast Break

Kyle Anderson is questionable for the Timberwolves, but if he’s able to suit up, you can definitely use him in your lineups. He’s been an excellent source of production with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should approach 30 minutes if he’s in the lineup, making him a strong value at $4,900 on DraftKings. If he’s unable to go, Jaden McDaniels would be worth considering instead.

Kenrich Williams has one of the best individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on FanDuel. His minutes are pretty hard to pin down – he’s played as many as 33.2 and as few as 10.5 in his past four games – but Williams has averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That gives him some upside at $4,900.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Julius Randle continues to get the job done for fantasy players. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.25 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s returned value in three straight games. He’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his 13 Pro Trends rank second at the position.

Despite his recent production, his salary has decreased to just $9,100 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Magic. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Randle has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.24 with a comparable salary this season. He’s also seen a significant spike in production in games without Barrett, so he would be one of the strongest plays on the slate if Barrett is ultimately ruled out.

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Value

Isaiah Hartenstein has fully solidified his spot as the Knicks’ preferred center with Mitchell Robinson sidelined. He was initially splitting time pretty evenly with Jericho Sims, but Hartenstein has averaged 31.5 minutes over his past four games. He hasn’t started any of those contests, but he’s seen more minutes than Sims in each.

Hartenstein has PF eligibility on FanDuel, giving him some added viability. He’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he stands out as one of the better per-dollar options at the position.

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Fast Break

Xavier Tillman fits a very similar profile as Hartenstein. He’s taken over as the Grizzlies’ top center option with Steven Adams out of the lineup, and he also has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel. Tillman has been even better than Hartenstein over the past month, averaging 1.03 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games. He’s coming off 31.9 minutes in his last outing, and his matchup vs. the Grizzlies comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86.

If you’re looking for a punt play on DraftKings, you could do worse than Dario Saric. He’s priced at just $3,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s played at least 21.5 minutes in three straight games. He’s not projected for quite as much playing time vs. the Nets, but Saric has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially return value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is the clear top stud on this slate, and the gap between him and the rest of the field is particularly wide. His median projection is nearly nine points higher than LeBron’s, who ranks second in our NBA Models. There isn’t even that large of a gap between Jokic and LeBron from a salary perspective, so it’s hard to argue against Jokic for the top spot.

The back-to-back MVP has played exceptionally well recently, increasing his production to 1.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.08 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 70.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three. He continues to triple-double in basically every single game, giving him the safest floor in fantasy. The Timberwolves also represent a strong matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81, so he’s a strong option to build around on Tuesday.

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Value

Hartenstein and Tillman are the best values at center, but Jonas Valanciunas is a strong target in the midrange. His minutes haven’t been very consistent recently, but he’s averaged a stout 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s down to just $6,100 on FanDuel, so he’s capable of returning value quickly against the Hawks.

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Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic is priced at just $8,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. He also leads the position with 15 Pro Trends, which is not a number that you see on every slate. Vucevic has been absolutely balling of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.98 over his past 10 games, yet his price tag has barely budged. His matchup vs. the Grizzlies also comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.8, so there’s plenty to like with Vucevic on this slate.

The Thunder switch their starting lineup basically every game, if not every half, but Jaylin Williams has played at least 20.6 minutes in back-to-back games. Both of those games were blowouts, but it’s possible that his role with the team is growing. He’s a viable punt play at $3,100 on DraftKings, especially against a Lakers’ squad that has struggled against big men all season.