Thursday features a two-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Coming off a career-high 51 points last night, Jrue Holiday is the stud point guard to get exposure to despite playing on a back-to-back. Holiday shot 20-30 from the field last night while accumulating eight rebounds, eight assists, and 75.5 DraftKings points. Even more impressive, he accomplished that feat in only 32 minutes. That type of ceiling was great to see, with Holiday scoring less than 26 DraftKings points in three of his previous four games.
A victory against the Celtics tonight will basically solidify the Bucks as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. This is the rubber match as both won on their home floor. Holiday has dominated the first two games of this matchup, averaging 31.5 points per game while shooting 60% from the field and 61.1% from behind the arc. We may not get another 50+ point game, but Holiday is arguably the best guard option on this small two-game slate.
Value
CJ McCollum is only eligible at point guard on DraftKings but has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel. He has a positive projected Plus/Minus on both sites, as McCollum is averaging over 20 points and a career-high 5.9 assists per game in his first full season with the Pelicans. Zion Williamson remains out with an injury, which gives McCollum the most significant boost in usage rate, which climbs to 28.7% with Williamson off the floor.
The Pelicans have won five of their last six games as they will play their second to last road game of the regular season. With an even record of 38-38, they are right in the mix in the gauntlet of the Western Conference. They are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Nuggets with an implied total of 111 points, the lowest among the four teams. Prioritize McCollum on DraftKings, where he has an 85% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray has averaged 21.8 points and eight assists in his last six games, as the Nuggets have basically locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Murray may get the luxury of playing without Nikola Jokic, who is questionable with a calf injury. With Jokic off the floor this season, Murray is averaging a team-high +5.1% usage rate differential and 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. Keep an eye on Jokic’s status, as Murray would be a great play on both sites if he’s ultimately ruled out. Even if Jokic does play, Murray still deserves consideration based on how well he has played recently.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The end may be near for Jaylen Brown in Boston, but he will continue putting up ceiling performances for now. Brown is averaging a career-high 26.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game this season while shooting 49.4% from the field. Like the rest of the team, Brown struggled in the Celtics’ shocking road loss to the Wizards. Expect a bounce-back from Brown in this pivotal Eastern Conference clash against the Bucks.
The Celtics are three-point road underdogs in their last chance to make a late push for the No. 1 seed. Despite the difficult matchup against a Bucks defense that ranks second in Defensive Rating (110.2), they also play at the seventh-fastest Pace while allowing 93.3 field goal attempts per game, which is second only to the Lakers. In his lone game against the Bucks this season, Brown filled it up with 29 points while shooting 11 of 19 from the field.
Value
Bruce Brown has the highest projected ownership on both sites, sitting at 73% on DraftKings and 62% on FanDuel. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 14 games as the versatile guard fills up the stat sheet in a variety of ways. In his first season with the Nuggets, Brown is averaging a career-high in points, assists, and minutes played. He has averaged 14.3 points per game over his last three games while shooting 53.8% from the field.
With an average of 24.2 DraftKings points per game, Brown’s $4,500 price tag on DraftKings comes with an 89% Bargain Rating. There are not many true value plays on this two-game slate, which is why Brown is expected to be so popular. The Pelicans Defensive Rating also drops from 111 to 115.2 when they play on the road this season. There is a lot to like about the Nuggets in this spot, and Brown is a cheap way to get exposure to their high team total.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton is expected back after sitting out the first game of the back-to-back set on Wednesday. In his last contest, Middleton scored a season-high 34 points while shooting 13 of 23 from the field. After two days of rest, he should be ready for this Eastern Conference showdown. Middleton has recorded four-straight games with a positive Plus/Minus, including a double-double with 10 assists last week. His projected ownership is very reasonable for a two-game slate, making him a strong contrarian option in the mid-range.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum is in a pricing tier of his own as he is -$1,000 cheaper than the top two pay-up options and nearly +$1,500 more expensive than the next closest player. Tatum is the clear-cut No. 1 option on this team, leading the Celtics in points and rebounds with career-highs in both categories. Among the three studs on this slate, Tatum is coming in with the lowest projected ownership.
In his only previous game against the Bucks this season, Tatum torched them with 41 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and three steals as he shot 14 of 22 from the field. He must have another big game tonight to pull off the road upset. Like Brown, expect Tatum to bounce back and be aggressive against the best team in the league.
Value
In his second year in the league, Trey Murphy III has taken a significant step up in his production. He is averaging 13.9 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field, 40.9% from behind the arc, and 91.4% from the charity stripe. He has blossomed into a key part of their rotation, starting in 59 of his 73 games played.
Over the last 13 games, Murphy is averaging 19.7 points per game while failing to score at least 15 points in just two. He is shooting the lights out, evidenced by his 10 3-pointers Saturday vs. the Clippers. Murphy is a scoring-dependent player, and the Pelicans will need his scoring tonight to keep up with the Nuggets. He has proven he can get hot against any team, so don’t be alarmed by the tough matchup.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations like Murphy’s prospects of knocking down at least three 3-pointers in this matchup:
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has the second-highest ceiling projection among all small forwards and the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He has been fantastic in March, averaging 26.8 points per game while shooting 52.2% from the field and 40% from downtown. Over the last four games, Ingram has also shown the ability to capture peripherals. He has a triple-double and a double-double over that stretch while still scoring nearly 30 points a night.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the best pay-up option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, especially if Jokic cannot play. Not only did Holiday have a monster game on Wednesday, but so did Giannis. He recorded a triple-double with 38 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists while shooting 14 of 18 from the field and 10 of 14 from the free-throw line. Giannis had over 80 DraftKings points, once again proving his massive ceiling.
The Celtics have been a top-five defensive unit all season, and they rank inside the top 10 in points allowed in the paint. However, Robert Williams is questionable, which would be a massive benefit to Giannis if he is unable to play. Even with Williams in the lineup for their previous two meetings, Giannis still averaged 31.5 points and 11 rebounds per game.
Giannis leads the slate on DraftKings with nine Pro Trends and has eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Al Horford has power forward and center eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him easy to fit in all lineup builds. He would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Williams is ruled out. In 32 games without Williams this season, Horford has averaged 10.4 points per game while shooting 51% from the field and 47.1% from behind the arc. Horford has started all 60 games for the Celtics this season and is shooting a career-high 44.7% from downtown.
The best way to attack the Bucks’ defense is on the perimeter. Stretching Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez away from the rim has been successful for Horford. He made three 3-pointers in his only meeting against the Bucks this season, and he had three games with four or more 3-pointers against the Bucks during last year’s postseason series. Horford is a great veteran big man who will hold his own against this massive Bucks frontcourt.
Fast Break
After spending most of his career in Orlando, Aaron Gordon has found a new home with the Nuggets and has been a fantastic addition to their starting lineup. Gordon is shooting a career-high 57.5% from the field while averaging 16.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. He has been a little inconsistent lately with the Nuggets at full strength, but he is another player who would benefit greatly if Jokic doesn’t play. In four games without Jokic this season, Gordon is averaging 21.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
We get to the most significant news on this two-game slate. Will Nikola Jokic play tonight? If he does, Jokic will likely dominate. He leads the league with 29 triple-doubles and had 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists in his last contest. The cushion atop the Western Conference is the only thing that makes Jokic not playing a potential reality.
Our NBA Models have Jokic projected for the highest ceiling on the slate. Like most opponents, the Pelicans have been unable to stop Jokic in their three meetings this season. In those contests, Jokic is averaging a triple-double with 27.7 points, 15 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game. In two of those three games, Jokic scored over 70 DraftKings points. If he plays, Jokic looks incredible in this spot.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and ranks third on DraftKings behind the Celtics’ big men. He will have his hands full if Jokic suits up, as he has struggled in this matchup thus far. Valanciunas is averaging 12.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game in three meetings vs. the Nuggets while shooting 59.3% from the field.
However, during the Pelicans’ current win streak, Valanciunas has been absolutely balling. Over the last seven games, Valanciunas is averaging a massive double-double with 17.1 points and 15.1 rebounds per game. His playing time has also ratcheted up, and a low minute count is typically the only thing stopping Jonas from returning value. Despite Jokic holding it down, the Nuggets have allowed 53 points per game scored in the paint this season, which ranks sixth-highest in the league.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez deserves his rising salary on both sites, as the Bucks center has turned back the clock this season. The veteran has averaged 15.7 points and 6.8 rebounds per game while shooting 52.6% from the field, all of which are his best marks since 2016-17. Lopez has also been great recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games. He is another player who will benefit if Williams cannot play.
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