Wednesday features a three-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
Steph Curry is a magician. That’s not a new development, but he did things in Game 1 vs. the Rockets that most players can only dream of. Houston threw everything at him defensively, and it simply didn’t matter. He hit some absolutely ridiculous shots, including some key 3-pointers to ice the game in the fourth quarter.
The Rockets are going to continue to guard Curry extremely tough, but it simply may not matter. He’s just that good. Curry has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 39 minutes in our NBA Models. The first-round playoff schedule bakes in plenty of rest, so the Warriors don’t have to worry about overworking him in these contests.
Ultimately, Curry has the top ceiling projection at the position, and he has the third-highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Value
Davion Mitchell has become an important part of Miami’s rotation down the stretch. He wasn’t even on the team to start the year, but he played big minutes for them to close out the regular season. That carried into the postseason, with Mitchell playing 33.9 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Cavaliers.
If Mitchell is going to continue to play that much moving forward, he’s a massive value at just $5,000 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a 97% Bargain Rating, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Mitchell has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.07 with a comparable salary and minute projection, and that figure increases to +6.45 as a member of the Heat (per the Trends tool). Overall, he stands out as one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
Ty Jerome continues to do what he did for the Cavaliers all season. He went nuclear in Game 1, scoring 28 points with five rebounds and three assists in just 26.3 minutes of court time. He’s averaged well over a fantasy point per minute for the year, including a massive 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He might not play quite as much if Game 2 is more competitive, but Jerome should still see more than enough playing time to pay off his modest $4,300 salary.
Tyler Herro struggled in Game 1 vs. the Cavaliers, but the Heat are going to need him if they have any chance of competing with Cleveland. He’s been the team’s top scoring threat since trading away Jimmy Butler, and he’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Herro had at least 50.25 DraftKings points in each of Miami’s Play-In Tournament wins, so he has a solid ceiling for his price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The big question for the Rockets heading into Game 2 is, where will the scoring come from? They did a solid job defensively in Game 1, limiting the Warriors to just 95 points, but they couldn’t do anything on the offensive end. They finished with just 85 points scored with a 96.3 Offensive Rating. The Wizards were dead last in Offensive Rating during the regular season, and the Rockets were nearly 10 points lower than that vs. Golden State.
For better or worse, Jalen Green is going to have to be the guy. He hasn’t developed the way the team would’ve hoped when selecting him No. 2 overall in 2021, but he’s one of the few players on the team who can create his own shot. He led the team in scoring during the regular season, averaging 21.0 points per game.
His efficiency still leaves a lot to be desired, and he was just 3-15 from the field in Game 1. He should be better by default in Game 2. Despite the subpar showing, he’s still averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a prime buy-low target at just $6,500.
Value
Brandin Podziemski has taken over as the Warriors’ clear No. 3 scorer down the stretch. With the Rockets throwing so much attention on Curry and Butler, it should give Podziemski plenty of opportunities to take advantage.
He did exactly that in Game 1, finishing with 36.5 DraftKings points in 35.2 minutes. Podziemski has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is capable of contributing in every category across the board. He’s projected for another 34 minutes on Wednesday, and as long as he continues to play that much, the production should follow. He’s showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a 43.18% clip, which is the top mark among backcourt options.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell was quietly brilliant for the Cavaliers in Game 1. He led the team with 30 points, and he racked up 50.25 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes. Mitchell hasn’t had to do quite as much for the Cavs this season, who have one of the deepest rosters in basketball. However, he’s still their top offensive threat, and he leads the position in ceiling projection on Wednesday.
Jrue Holiday could be an interesting tournament option for the Celtics. He’s currently projected for approximately 7% ownership, and he’s had a pretty quiet regular season. However, he’s someone with a track record of turning in big performances during the playoffs. He played 33.2 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Magic, and his price tag is all the way down to $5,500 for Game 2.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The big X-factor on this slate is the status of Jayson Tatum. He’s currently listed as doubtful with a bone bruise in his wrist. It’s not unheard of for players to play through doubtful designations in the postseason, but it seems unlikely that the Celtics will push him in the first round. Boston should still have more than enough talent to get past Orlando, so getting him big to 100% is the bigger priority.
That opens the door for Jaylen Brown to assume a bigger role on offense. He’s seen a team-high +4.01% usage bump with Tatum off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. In seven full games without his star running mate, Brown has increased that figure to 1.30. That represents a significant increase from his average of 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, making him a clear target at $7,500. The matchup vs. the Magic isn’t ideal – this game has the lowest total of the day at 196.5 – but the Celtics still have the third-highest implied team total on what is expected to be a low-scoring slate.
Value
There are a couple of intriguing punt plays at small forward, but Haywood Highsmith stands out as the best combination of value and upside. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes at just $3,700, which is a solid combo: players with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.88.
Highsmith also brings a decent per-minute ceiling to the table. He had 35.5 DraftKings points in 39.6 minutes vs. the Hawks in the Play-In Tournament, so he’s capable of getting to around a fantasy point per minute in certain scenarios.
Fast Break
Moses Moody is the other potential punt play at small forward, albeit with slightly less upside. He’s also projected for 30 minutes at just $3,800, and he’s become one of the Warriors’ most trusted role players. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into much production. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his past 10 games, and he’s scored 20.5 DraftKings points or fewer in all of them.
Franz Wagner is down to $7,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a 94% Bargain Rating. He also leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, giving him some buy-low appeal. He’s taken a backseat to Paolo Banchero from a usage standpoint of late, but the Magic are desperate for someone else to provide some offense vs. the Celtics. Wagner remains the most likely candidate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
While Butler is a good player, he’s nothing compared to Playoff Jimmy. When the games start to get more important, Butler transforms into one of the most impactful players in the entire league. He put that on display in the Play-In Tournament, racking up 61.75 DraftKings points in their win over the Grizzlies, and he followed that up with 52.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Rockets.
With so much of the attention being placed on Curry, Butler is going to have to continue to produce at a high level for Golden State. Given his track record, there’s no reason to expect him to come up short. He owns the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, and no one is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency.
Value
With Tatum unlikely to suit up, the Celtics are once again going to call on Al Horford to pick up the slack. Horford has been the consummate professional during his NBA tenure, and when the Celtics have needed him, he’s typically stepped up. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and he has the potential to obliterate his $4,300 price tag with that much playing time. Horford has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s undoubtedly one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
If you’re looking to go cheaper with Boston, Sam Hauser could also pick up a few additional minutes. He’s also been productive when given the opportunity to play this season, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in games without Tatum. At just $3,300, he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Banchero also deserves some consideration as a stud target. He’s not expected to be as popular as Butler, but he has more upside. He was the lone member of the Magic who looked like he belonged in Game 1 vs. the Celtics, finishing with 36 points and 61.25 DraftKings points in 42.2 minutes. He leads all players in ceiling projection on this slate, and the Magic are going to need another strong showing from him to pull off the upset.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo has had a quiet year by his standards, but he’s started to turn things on down the stretch. He finished with a positive Plus/Minus in four of his final six regular-season outings, including three games with more than 50 DraftKings points. He’s kept that production rolling into the postseason, and he finished with 45.75 DraftKings points vs. the Cavs in Game 1.
His usage rate eclipsed 30% in that contest, which represents a massive increase from his regular-season average. Ultimately, he’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see around 40 minutes if Wednesday’s game stays competitive. That’s a major question mark – the Heat are currently listed as 12-point underdogs – but Adebayo is another player who deserves heavy consideration at the top of the pricing spectrum.
Value
Jarrett Allen has lost some playing time for the Cavaliers down the stretch, but he’s still projected for 30 minutes in Game 2 vs. the Heat. That’s enough for him to potentially return value at just $5,900. He had 35.75 DraftKings points in a similar number of minutes in Game 1, and he’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price tag also comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, making him one of the best pure values of the day.
Fast Break
The Rockets’ best offense in Game 1 was simply to rebound their own misses. They had a ridiculous 42.3% offensive rebound rate, and they outscored the Warriors by four points with Steven Adams on the court. It’s possible they lean into Adams a bit more in Game 2, which makes him an interesting punt play at $3,500. He’s another player with a 98% Bargain Rating, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute over the past month.
Kristaps Porzingis is another member of the Celtics who will have to pick up the slack if Tatum is sidelined. He’s averaged a team-best 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in games without Tatum this season; the only question is how much he’ll play in Game 2. He was limited to just 25.9 minutes in Game 1, but he’s projected for 32 minutes on Wednesday. If he can get to that mark, he has an excellent ceiling.
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Pictured: Jaylen Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
