Wednesday features a two-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
After a solid start to the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday, we’ll have two more contests on Wednesday. This slate doesn’t feature the same marquee matchup like Warriors-Grizzlies, but both games are expected to be competitive. The Bulls are just one-point home favorites vs. the Heat, while the Mavericks are -4.5 at home vs. the Kings.
Some might be surprised to see the Bulls as favorites vs. Miami, but they’ve played extremely well down the stretch. They’ve won 11 of their past 15 games, and they’re seventh in the league in Net Rating during that span.
Part of the reason for their success has been the play of Josh Giddey. He struggled to find his role with the team early in the year, but he has established himself as the team’s clear top player over the past month. He’s averaged a massive 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, and he’s turned in some monster performances. That includes 78.5 DraftKings points in a triple-double vs. the Heat in his last outing.
The Heat are far from an ideal matchup, but Giddey has proven he can find success against them. On a slate with limited star power, Giddey leads all players in our NBA Models in ceiling projection.
Value
Unlike the Bulls, the Mavericks are limping into their postseason contest. Trading away Luka Doncic and losing Kyrie Irving to injury leaves the team with minimal playmakers. Anthony Davis is back in the lineup, but who knows how much he’ll be able to play after logging limited minutes since his return.
It leaves Spencer Dinwiddie to carry a decent burden offensively. He hasn’t exactly thrived in that role recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games, but he was significantly more expensive for most of them. He’s still averaged better than a fantasy point per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 36 minutes vs. the Kings.
Dinwiddie is down to $5,700 on Tuesday’s slate, and he’s a clear buy at that figure. He leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Tyler Herro is an intriguing tournament option at the position. Most people will likely gravitate towards Giddey if spending up at point guard, which means Herro could fly a bit under the radar. He’s currently projected for less than 20% ownership on DraftKings, which is nothing on a two-game slate. His optimal lineup rate is closer to 25% in Sim Labs, so he appears to be a bit undervalued.
Sticking with the Heat, Davion Mitchell has seen plenty of minutes for them since arriving from Toronto. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Mitchell has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.53 with a comparable minute projection as a member of the Heat (per the Trends tool). He’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in five straight games with more than 30 minutes of playing time, so he could be a solid source of value at $5,300.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
While Giddey has been the Bulls best all-around player, Coby White has been their top scoring threat since trading away Zach LaVine. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 36 games without LaVine this season, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
White played sparingly in his final two outings of the regular season, but he had at least 44.75 DraftKings points in three of his prior four contests. Unfortunately, the lone exception came against the Heat, who limited him to 30.25 DraftKings points on 5-14 shooting. White still has the top ceiling projection at the position, but he doesn’t stand out as a particularly appealing value at $8,200.
Value
The big injury on this slate involves the Kings. They’re going to be without Malik Monk, which leaves them with a void in their backcourt. He’s served as the team’s de facto point guard since trading away De’Aaron Fox, so the rest of the team is going to have to pick up the slack.
Keon Ellis should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s projected for 34 minutes at just $5,000, and he’s averaged 23.22 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection this season. He’s not the best per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but the matchup vs. the Mavericks should help. They’ve played at a top-10 pace over their final 15 games, and Ellis owns a solid +2.93 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
LaVine is way too expensive at $8,700, resulting in a minuscule 1% Bargain Rating and giving him one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks on the slate. Still, that could be a positive for tournaments. He’s projected for roughly 5% ownership, and he still has plenty of upside with Monk sidelined. He’s increased his usage and assist rates in eight games without Monk this season, and no one at shooting guard is projected for more than his 39 minutes.
Alec Burks has been a key reserve for the Heat recently, and he should see around 20 minutes in a fantastic matchup. The Heat are one of the slowest teams in the league, but the Bulls have played at the second-fastest pace this season. They’re first in that department over their past 15 games, so the Heat players have more upside than usual. That makes Burks a viable punt play.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Like LaVine, DeMar DeRozan should be asked to do more for the Kings sans Monk. He’s also been the more productive player overall. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen solid bumps to his usage (+2.94%) and assist rates (6.41%) with Monk and Fox off the floor.
Ultimately, he seems like the preferred pay-up wing for the Kings. His projections are higher than LaVine’s in our NBA Models, and he’s only slightly more expensive at $9,000.
Value
Kevin Huerter is expected to be one of the most popular plays of the day. He’s currently projected for 70% ownership, but he’s very tough to avoid at just $4,600. He’s expected to see around 36 minutes vs. the Heat, and that’s a ton for someone with such a reasonable price tag. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.66. Huerter has eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward, and he should find his way into your lineup at one of those spots.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins doesn’t have quite the same ceiling as guys like DeRozan and LaVine, but he’s a better pure value at just $7,000. He’s been excellent since joining the Heat, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He hasn’t played a ton over the past month, but he had a five-game stretch with at least 33.75 DraftKings points in each outing at the end of March.
Duncan Robinson is another potential value option for Miami. It’s unclear exactly how much he’ll play vs. the Bulls, but he doesn’t need a ton of minutes at just $3,700. His price tag comes with a 94% Bargain Rating, and Robinson is capable of doing plenty of damage in limited playing time if he gets hot from the perimeter.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If the Mavericks are willing to push Anthony Davis a little bit, he undoubtedly has one of the top ceilings on the slate. When healthy, Davis remains one of the best players in the league. He’s not quite as dominant as he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of putting up huge numbers. We’ve seen that since returning from his recent injury, going for 72.25 and 68.25 DraftKings points in two of his past four games, despite playing 30.5 minutes or fewer in both.
Davis has posted a usage rate as high as 49% in his time with the Mavericks, and we currently have him projected for 35 minutes vs. the Kings. If he can get to that threshold, he’s underpriced at $10,300.
Value
Trey Lyles stands out as one of the best value options on the slate. He’s projected for 34 minutes for the Kings, and he has always been a solid per-minute producer when given the opportunity to play. He hasn’t been super efficient with his minutes of late – he’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but he has the potential to far exceed that output. He put that on display just a few games ago, going for 34.75 DraftKings points in 37.7 minutes vs. the Nuggets. Overall, he ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Huerter.
Fast Break
Keegan Murray is also a strong option in the Kings’ frontcourt. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models. The Kings ultimately have just eight players projected to see the court on Wednesday, and two of them are projected for 10 minutes or fewer. That leaves the other six to handle most of the playing time, making them all viable options.
Matas Buzelis has come on strong for the Bulls down the stretch. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His minutes have been volatile over that time frame, but he’s typically succeeded when he’s gotten extended playing time. He’s projected for 32 minutes vs. the Heat, which gives him an excellent ceiling at $5,500.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Vucevic is one of the more underrated offensive big men in basketball. He’s had a strong season for the Bulls, and he finished the year even stronger. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in five straight games with at least 28.3 minutes.
Vucevic leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and while facing Bam Adebayo is never fun, it’s a matchup that Vucevic can win. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.78, and he had 53.25 DraftKings points vs. the Heat last week.
Value
Outside of Lyles – who has dual PF/C eligibility on DraftKings – there isn’t really a value option to get excited about at center. Kel’el Ware has had a solid rookie season in Miami, but he’s up to $6,200 vs. the Bulls. He could also see fewer minutes than expected with the team essentially at full strength: Ware is only projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models.
Still, Ware has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s an excellent per-minute producer for his price tag. That’s enough to at least keep him relevant on a small slate.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis doesn’t stand out quite as much as Vucevic in our models. His median projection is nearly identical, which is not ideal for a player who costs $2,000 more. However, Sabonis’ ceiling is definitely higher. He’s an elite passer, and with Monk out of the lineup, he could be asked to do a bit more facilitating for the Kings on Wednesday. A triple-double is within the realm of possibility.
Finally, Adebayo hasn’t had his best season for the Heat, but he turned things on down the stretch. He’s gone for at least 48.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, including a game where he played just 21.7 total minutes. He’s increased his production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be one of Miami’s top offensive options in a pace-up spot.
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Pictured: Josh Giddey
Photo Credit: Imagn
