Tuesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
We have reached the final week of the NBA regular season. It can oftentimes feel like a grind, but hopefully, we’re rewarded with a strong group of postseason series.
The motivation for each team will vary down the stretch. The Cavaliers need either one more win or Celtics’ loss to lock up the top seed in the East, so they don’t have a ton to play for at the moment. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Donovan Mitchell will get the night off. He suffered an ankle injury in the team’s last game, so getting him back to 100% for the playoffs is their top priority.
Mitchell’s absence gives Darius Garland a big boost in value. He’s seen a +3.5% boost to his usage rate with Mitchell off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. In seven full games without Mitchell, Garland has averaged just under 46.0 DraftKings points per game.
That makes him a clear target at $7,800 in an elite matchup vs. the Bulls. Chicago has played at the second-fastest pace this season, and even without Mitchell, the Cavs’ 126.5 implied team total ranks second on the slate.
Value
Garland is far from the only option available for the Cavs on Tuesday. Most of their roster is going to see a boost in value, including Ty Jerome.
Jerome has turned in a phenomenal season for Cleveland this season. He’s been a huge part of their rotation off the bench, averaging 12.3 points in just 19.8 minutes per game. The last player to play in at least 52 games and average 12+ points in less than 20 minutes was J.R. Smith all the way back in 2007-08.
With Mitchell sidelined, the coast is clear for Jerome to pick up a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, which is more than enough for him to return value. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell off the floor, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.51 with a comparable minute projection this season (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
If not for Jerome, Reece Beekman would stand out as a no-doubt value option at PG. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes for the shorthanded Nets, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Beekman is coming off 31.5 DraftKings points in 35.7 minutes in his last outing, and he has similar upside on Teusday at a $4,000 salary.
The Pacers have the top implied team total on the slate, and they’re currently dealing with a host of injuries. T.J. McConnell has taken advantage recently, scoring at least 26.75 DraftKings points in three straight games. He remains very affordable at just $3,800, and his ownership has been below 2.5% in all three outings. Very few players are capable of doing as much damage as McConnell on a per-minute basis, and his matchup vs. the Wizards is as good as it gets.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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Shooting guard doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong position to spend up at on Tuesday. Most of the top options own negative Plus/Minus projections, and they also have poor Bargain Ratings on DraftKings.
However, Desmond Bane is a possible exception. The Grizzlies are fighting for a guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference, and Bane is coming off a huge showing in his last game. He racked up 52.25 DraftKings points in more than 38 minutes, despite a subpar matchup vs. the Pistons.
Bane could see a comparable workload on Tuesday, and this time, the matchup is much friendlier. He’s taking on the Hornets, who are 26th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games. Memphis has the third-highest implied team total on the slate, so Bane stands out as your best bet if paying up at the position.
Value
Aaron Nesmith is another member of the Pacers who has taken full advantage of their current injury situation. He’s played at least 26.3 minutes in three of their past four games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. That includes two games with at least 34.0 DraftKings points.
Nesmith has increased his production to 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes on Tuesday. That gives him an excellent floor and ceiling at just $4,600.
Fast Break
Colby Carrington is up to $5,600 on DraftKings, but it’s hard to argue against it. He’s taken on more offensive responsibilities for the Wizards down the stretch, and it’s resulted in some big performances. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 56 DraftKings points during that stretch. He has plenty of upside in what should be a fast-paced game vs. the Pacers.
Max Strus is another potential target for the Cavaliers. He hasn’t seen quite as large of a boost with Mitchell off the floor this season, but he should pick up a few additional minutes. He also stands out as a nice value at $4,000, resulting in an 89% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
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The Magic still have plenty to play for with just four games left in the regular season. They’re locked into the Play-In Tournament, but they hold just a two-game lead over the Heat for the No. 7 spot in the conference. Finishing at No. 7 or No. 8 is vital because it means you only have to win one of two games to make it to the playoffs. The No. 9 and 10 seeds have to win two straight, so they have less room for error.
That makes Franz Wagner one of the safer options if paying up at small forward. He should see a heavy workload – he’s currently projected for 36 minutes – and his nine Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position. Wagner’s per-minute production has been down recently, but he’s still scored at least 42.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He ultimately has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position, and he’s grading out as a far-superior value compared to the other high-priced small forwards.
Value
The Bulls are going to be extremely shorthanded on Tuesday. They’ve already ruled out five players – including top scorer Coby White – while Nikola Vucevic and Josh Giddey are listed as questionable. It should open up plenty of playing time for Dalen Terry.
When Terry has gotten minutes recently, he’s returned value on a pretty consistent basis. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games with at least 23 minutes of court time, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Terry has the upside to play significantly more than that on Tuesday: he’s currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models. Ultimately, he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Maxwell Lewis is also priced at $3,500, and he’s played at least 27 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s responded with 25.5 and 21.0 DraftKings points in those outings, and there’s no reason to expect much different on Tuesday. He’s projected for another 26 minutes for the shorthanded Nets, and he draws an excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans. They’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this season, and they’re 27th in defensive efficiency over their past 15 games.
The Celtics have very little to play for at the moment, so there’s plenty of risk in targeting their superstars. However, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis are all listed as questionable. If all three players are ruled out, it’s going to open up plenty of value with the rest of the roster. Make sure to monitor this situation heading into lineup lock.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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Giannis Antetokounmpo got the night off in the Bucks’ last game, but he’s probable to return to the lineup on Tuesday. That makes him one of the strongest pay-up options on the slate. He’s carried a massive workload for the Bucks when he’s been in the lineup recently, and that doesn’t figure to change on Tuesday. They’re still playing without Damian Lillard, and the Bucks are fighting for seeding the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Giannis has scored at least 69.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, including a massive 94.25 DraftKings points in a demolition of the 76ers. His matchup vs. the Timberwolves isn’t ideal, but Giannis still owns the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models by a pretty comfortable margin.
Value
Patrick Williams’ contract extension with the Bulls was a head-scratcher at the time, and he has mostly failed to live up to it this season. He’s averaged just 8.8 points per game while shooting less than 40% from the field, and he’s struggled to find consistent minutes down the stretch.
However, that shouldn’t be an issue with the Bulls being extremely banged up at the moment. He’s projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his minimal $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero has taken his game to another level recently. From a usage standpoint, he’s been at a massive 39.1% over his past five games. To put that in perspective, LaMelo Ball leads the league in usage this season, and he’s at just 35.8%. That gives him massive upside, which he put on display with 70.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He also draws a phenomenal matchup vs. the Hawks, and his 12 Pro Trends are the most at the position.
Tosan Evbuomwan has come seemingly out of nowhere for the Nets recently. He’s logged at least 25.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with 28.75 and 29.5 DraftKings points. With the Nets clearly tanking, there’s no reason for them not to roll Evbuomwan out there and see what he’s got. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in his past three contests, so he’s an interesting option at just $3,900.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Evan Mobley has been one of the biggest winners with Mitchell off the floor this season. He’s averaged a team-best 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he’s averaged more than 46 DraftKings points in seven full games without Mitchell this season. If he sees a full workload vs. the Bulls – the Cavs are currently listed as 12.5-point favorites – he has massive upside in an elite matchup. Chicago has been extremely weak against opposing big men all season, ranking 22nd in team rebound rate and dead last in points in the paint allowed per game.
Value
Moussa Diabate stands out as one of the best pure values of the day, with his $3,200 salary coming with a 95% Bargain Rating. Diabate is playing around 22 minutes on most nights, and that’s more than enough for him to provide value. He’s scored 20.75 and 29.25 DraftKings points in his past two games, and he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on Tuesday. He’s taking on the Grizzlies, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Zach Edey is worth targeting for Memphis. The Grizzlies are playing without Brandon Clarke, and Edey’s playing time has been much more consistent in his absence. He’s logged at least 27.7 minutes in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of them. He’s gone for at least 40.0 DraftKings points in two of those outings, so he provides excellent value and upside at just $5,400.
Finally, don’t forget about Myles Turner. He’s been quiet for most of the year, but he appears to be heating up before the start of the postseason. He saw a bump in minutes with Pascal Siakam out of the lineup in their last game, and Siakam is questionable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Wizards. Turner is still capable of erupting from time to time, so he would be an awesome GPP option in an elite matchup if Siakam is sidelined once again.
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Pictured: Darius Garland (10)
Photo Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
