NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Thursday, January 16)

Use the BetMGM bonus code to sign up and bet on Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Thunder-Cavaliers game which is part of the Wednesday NBA slate.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The OKC Thunder lead the Western Conference with a 33-6 record and have won 13 of their last 14 games. Their only loss came on the road against the Cavaliers, who they will host tonight. The Thunder are 1.5-point favorites, with this heavyweight battle featuring the highest total on the slate at 232.5 points.

Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in scoring with 31.4 points per game while shooting 52.8% from the field. He also ranks third in steals, proving to be one of the best two-way players the league has to offer. The Thunder are still without their breakout center, Chet Holmgren, which provides a significant boost for the star guard. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with a +1.04% usage rate and +1.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus when Holmgren is off the floor this season (per our Trends tool).


Value

With Deni Avdija out last game, Scoot Henderson drew his fourth start of the season. He erupted for 39 points on 13-for-18 shooting from the field, including 8-for-10 from behind the arc. Henderson added six assists, four rebounds, and two steals for 59 DraftKings points. Avdija is doubtful to play tonight, which is why Henderson is projected to start and play 33 minutes. He is one of the best value options on the slate.

Henderson did see his salary jump from $4,200 to $5,800, but he is still projected for the second-highest Plus/Minus on the slate. He has had a boom-or-bust season scoring the ball but does lead the Trail Blazers with five assists per game. The Trail Blazers have the lowest team total on the slate at 106.3 points and are 6.5-point home underdogs. However, Henderson can still exceed his $5,800 mid-range salary.


Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the slate in projected ceiling, but Cade Cunningham is not far behind, ranking second. Cunningham has either scored 30+ points or had a triple-double in five of his last six games. He has been the main reason the Pistons have won 10 of their last 12 games and have climbed to seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. In his two games against the Pacers this year, Cunningham is averaging a near double-double with 26 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He is a great pay-up play.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The only true stud at the shooting guard position is Devin Booker. He has the highest projected ceiling at this position by 10 points in a cupcake matchup against the Wizards. Booker has scored over 30 points and over 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. During that stretch, he has added 5.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.7 steals per game while shooting 54% from the field and 48.6% from behind the arc.

Given how well he has played recently, Booker will feast in this matchup. The Wizards continue to rank dead last in defensive rating at 118.6 and third in total pace. They are allowing a league-high 122.6 points per game, while opponents are attempting a staggering 40.4 3-point field goals per game. Priced up at $9,100, Booker is primed for another ceiling performance against a truly pitiful Wizards defense tonight.


Value

One of the most popular players for this five-game slate is Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe. Projected for over 35% ownership, Sharpe will be a focal point in cash game contests with his dual guard eligibility and mid-range $6,200 price tag. In his third year in the league, Sharpe is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game with a 24.1% usage rate. He has also scored 20+ points in five consecutive games.

The Clippers do present a difficult matchup, ranking fourth in defensive rating this season. In their only meeting this season, the Trail Blazers lost on the road by 22 points, but Sharpe had 15 points while shooting 57.1% from the field and 50% from downtown. With a projected usage rate of nearly 30%, it is impossible to ignore Sharpe in this spot. He is an incredible value play in all formats for this slate tonight.


Fast Break

Cavaliers’ shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is a perfect way to get contrarian on this five-game slate. He is projected for less than 5% ownership and is coming off a 35-point, nine-rebound performance against the Pacers. It was Mitchell’s first positive Plus/Minus game in his last seven contests, but he proved he is still capable of a ceiling performance. Mitchell still leads the Cavaliers in scoring with 23.1 points per game. The Thunder lead the league in defensive rating, but Mitchell can shine in any given matchup.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Likely guarding Shaedon Sharpe will be Clippers’ guard Norman Powell. The veteran is having the best year of his 11-year career, averaging a career-best 23.7 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 44.7% from distance. Over the past month, Powell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 13 games averaging 24.5 points per game during that time. He has the highest projected ceiling at the small forward position and has shooting guard eligibility making him easy to fit into all formats.

Most of Powell’s production comes from scoring the ball, which will be relatively easy against a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 28th in defensive rating. Opponents are averaging 116.8 points per game against them while shooting 47.9% from the field and 37.8% from behind the arc. Drawing around 25% projected ownership with a near 30% usage rate, Powell is a phenomenal option at his $7,300 price tag.


Value

With Bradley Beal out for the Suns, Grayson Allen will see a significant bump even though he will likely continue to come off the bench. With Beal off the floor this season, Allen has the second-highest usage rate increase on the team at +1.56%. Allen will be one of the best scoring options for the Suns and is a cheap way to get exposure to this offense at this $4,200 salary. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position and is drawing just under 20% projected ownership for this five-game slate.

Over the last four games, Allen has been extremely aggressive on offense, averaging 14.8 points per game while shooting 63.3% from the field and 57.7% from behind the arc with a 17.9% usage rate. With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, and a cheap salary, Allen is one of the best values tonight.


Fast Break

Amen Thompson has seen his salary continue to rise now at $8,100. A major jump from $5,000 just two months ago. The Rockets are still without Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, which solidifies the playing time for Thompson. He has recorded a points and rebounds double-double in five of his last nine games with 50+ DraftKings points in two of his last four contests. Even though this is not a great rebounding spot against the Kings, Thompson is worth getting exposure to, given his upside and minimal ownership.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Ranking third in projected ceiling for this five-game slate is Suns’ power forward Kevin Durant. He has the biggest impact with Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal unable to play. With those two off the floor this season, Durant has a +3.63% usage rate increase and a +3.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Projected for a 33% usage rate tonight, Durant is popping in our Model to be one of the best pay-op options available on the slate.

Not only are the Wizards a poor defensive team, but they also are awful on the glass. They rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 47.9%, making this a great opportunity for Durant to record a double-double. Durant dominated his last game against the Hawks with 31 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals, and two blocks for 56.5 DraftKings points. A repeat performance is certainly on the table again tonight.


Value

There are only two players with a salary north of $10,000 tonight, but if we need to fit both players and any other studs, we need to go dumpster diving. That is the case with Thunder power forward Kenrich Williams, who is a near-minimum $3,100 tonight. Williams has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position behind Durant and Pascal Siakam. Williams also has power forward and center eligibility making it easy to fit him into any lineup build. He is simply too cheap for this small slate.

Williams is projected to play 19 minutes with an 18% usage rate. He could easily find his way into the optimal lineup build with a strong performance tonight. Williams is a cheap way to get exposure to the best game environment on the slate from a total perspective and costs little to nothing to return value.


Fast Break

Speaking of Pascal Siakam, he has returned a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. During that stretch, he is averaging 23 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting a very impressive 58.6% from the field with a 27.6% usage rate. The Pacers are playing without Bennedict Mathurin, while Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith are both questionable to suit up. Siakam is a strong option now and could look better throughout the day if Haliburton and Nesmith do not play. Keep an eye on their status.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

One of the best matchups on this five-game slate is the center battle between Domantas Sabonis and Alperen Sengun. Sabonis gets a slight lean due to how consistent and dominant he has played recently. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 14 of his last 16 games, which is incredibly impressive at his high-end price tag. Sabonis is averaging a career-high in both points and rebounds and has posted a double-double in 35 of his 37 games played. He is averaging a remarkable 14.1 rebounds per game.

The Rockets have the best rebounding percentage in the league and that was one of the two games in which Sabonis recorded less than 10 rebounds. However, he still finished with 27 points on 13-for-19 shooting from the field. Even in a difficult spot, Sabonis is worth getting exposure to, given his consistency.


Value

Leading the slate by a wide margin in projected Plus/Minus is Thunder center Jaylin Williams. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein unable to play, Williams is going to have his hands full with the Cavaliers monster frontcourt. Being one of the few big men on the team, Williams will need to play heavy minutes if he stays out of foul trouble. He is currently projected for a modest 25 minutes and is the best value play on the slate due to his $3,300 salary. Williams is drawing 40% projected ownership tonight.

Despite Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley holding it down for the Cavaliers, their rebounding rate has been below average this season. They have also allowed 47.1 points per game in the paint, which also ranks outside of the top 10. Williams is a staple in cash games and a fantastic tournament option for this slate.


Fast Break

Another Clippers player who is having the best year of his career is starting center Ivica Zubac. The big man is averaging a double-double with 15 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. He is shooting 62% from the field and will have no trouble dominating the Trail Blazers frontcourt. The Trail Blazers rank 23rd in rebounding percentage this season, and Deandre Ayton goes on stretches where he seems uninterested in playing basketball. This is a great spot for a Zubac ceiling performance against the Trail Blazers tonight.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The OKC Thunder lead the Western Conference with a 33-6 record and have won 13 of their last 14 games. Their only loss came on the road against the Cavaliers, who they will host tonight. The Thunder are 1.5-point favorites, with this heavyweight battle featuring the highest total on the slate at 232.5 points.

Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in scoring with 31.4 points per game while shooting 52.8% from the field. He also ranks third in steals, proving to be one of the best two-way players the league has to offer. The Thunder are still without their breakout center, Chet Holmgren, which provides a significant boost for the star guard. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with a +1.04% usage rate and +1.07 DraftKings Plus/Minus when Holmgren is off the floor this season (per our Trends tool).


Value

With Deni Avdija out last game, Scoot Henderson drew his fourth start of the season. He erupted for 39 points on 13-for-18 shooting from the field, including 8-for-10 from behind the arc. Henderson added six assists, four rebounds, and two steals for 59 DraftKings points. Avdija is doubtful to play tonight, which is why Henderson is projected to start and play 33 minutes. He is one of the best value options on the slate.

Henderson did see his salary jump from $4,200 to $5,800, but he is still projected for the second-highest Plus/Minus on the slate. He has had a boom-or-bust season scoring the ball but does lead the Trail Blazers with five assists per game. The Trail Blazers have the lowest team total on the slate at 106.3 points and are 6.5-point home underdogs. However, Henderson can still exceed his $5,800 mid-range salary.


Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the slate in projected ceiling, but Cade Cunningham is not far behind, ranking second. Cunningham has either scored 30+ points or had a triple-double in five of his last six games. He has been the main reason the Pistons have won 10 of their last 12 games and have climbed to seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. In his two games against the Pacers this year, Cunningham is averaging a near double-double with 26 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He is a great pay-up play.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The only true stud at the shooting guard position is Devin Booker. He has the highest projected ceiling at this position by 10 points in a cupcake matchup against the Wizards. Booker has scored over 30 points and over 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. During that stretch, he has added 5.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.7 steals per game while shooting 54% from the field and 48.6% from behind the arc.

Given how well he has played recently, Booker will feast in this matchup. The Wizards continue to rank dead last in defensive rating at 118.6 and third in total pace. They are allowing a league-high 122.6 points per game, while opponents are attempting a staggering 40.4 3-point field goals per game. Priced up at $9,100, Booker is primed for another ceiling performance against a truly pitiful Wizards defense tonight.


Value

One of the most popular players for this five-game slate is Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe. Projected for over 35% ownership, Sharpe will be a focal point in cash game contests with his dual guard eligibility and mid-range $6,200 price tag. In his third year in the league, Sharpe is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game with a 24.1% usage rate. He has also scored 20+ points in five consecutive games.

The Clippers do present a difficult matchup, ranking fourth in defensive rating this season. In their only meeting this season, the Trail Blazers lost on the road by 22 points, but Sharpe had 15 points while shooting 57.1% from the field and 50% from downtown. With a projected usage rate of nearly 30%, it is impossible to ignore Sharpe in this spot. He is an incredible value play in all formats for this slate tonight.


Fast Break

Cavaliers’ shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is a perfect way to get contrarian on this five-game slate. He is projected for less than 5% ownership and is coming off a 35-point, nine-rebound performance against the Pacers. It was Mitchell’s first positive Plus/Minus game in his last seven contests, but he proved he is still capable of a ceiling performance. Mitchell still leads the Cavaliers in scoring with 23.1 points per game. The Thunder lead the league in defensive rating, but Mitchell can shine in any given matchup.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Likely guarding Shaedon Sharpe will be Clippers’ guard Norman Powell. The veteran is having the best year of his 11-year career, averaging a career-best 23.7 points per game while shooting 49% from the field and 44.7% from distance. Over the past month, Powell has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 13 games averaging 24.5 points per game during that time. He has the highest projected ceiling at the small forward position and has shooting guard eligibility making him easy to fit into all formats.

Most of Powell’s production comes from scoring the ball, which will be relatively easy against a Trail Blazers defense that ranks 28th in defensive rating. Opponents are averaging 116.8 points per game against them while shooting 47.9% from the field and 37.8% from behind the arc. Drawing around 25% projected ownership with a near 30% usage rate, Powell is a phenomenal option at his $7,300 price tag.


Value

With Bradley Beal out for the Suns, Grayson Allen will see a significant bump even though he will likely continue to come off the bench. With Beal off the floor this season, Allen has the second-highest usage rate increase on the team at +1.56%. Allen will be one of the best scoring options for the Suns and is a cheap way to get exposure to this offense at this $4,200 salary. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position and is drawing just under 20% projected ownership for this five-game slate.

Over the last four games, Allen has been extremely aggressive on offense, averaging 14.8 points per game while shooting 63.3% from the field and 57.7% from behind the arc with a 17.9% usage rate. With shooting guard and small forward eligibility, and a cheap salary, Allen is one of the best values tonight.


Fast Break

Amen Thompson has seen his salary continue to rise now at $8,100. A major jump from $5,000 just two months ago. The Rockets are still without Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, which solidifies the playing time for Thompson. He has recorded a points and rebounds double-double in five of his last nine games with 50+ DraftKings points in two of his last four contests. Even though this is not a great rebounding spot against the Kings, Thompson is worth getting exposure to, given his upside and minimal ownership.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Ranking third in projected ceiling for this five-game slate is Suns’ power forward Kevin Durant. He has the biggest impact with Jusuf Nurkic and Bradley Beal unable to play. With those two off the floor this season, Durant has a +3.63% usage rate increase and a +3.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Projected for a 33% usage rate tonight, Durant is popping in our Model to be one of the best pay-op options available on the slate.

Not only are the Wizards a poor defensive team, but they also are awful on the glass. They rank 29th in rebounding percentage at 47.9%, making this a great opportunity for Durant to record a double-double. Durant dominated his last game against the Hawks with 31 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals, and two blocks for 56.5 DraftKings points. A repeat performance is certainly on the table again tonight.


Value

There are only two players with a salary north of $10,000 tonight, but if we need to fit both players and any other studs, we need to go dumpster diving. That is the case with Thunder power forward Kenrich Williams, who is a near-minimum $3,100 tonight. Williams has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position behind Durant and Pascal Siakam. Williams also has power forward and center eligibility making it easy to fit him into any lineup build. He is simply too cheap for this small slate.

Williams is projected to play 19 minutes with an 18% usage rate. He could easily find his way into the optimal lineup build with a strong performance tonight. Williams is a cheap way to get exposure to the best game environment on the slate from a total perspective and costs little to nothing to return value.


Fast Break

Speaking of Pascal Siakam, he has returned a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. During that stretch, he is averaging 23 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting a very impressive 58.6% from the field with a 27.6% usage rate. The Pacers are playing without Bennedict Mathurin, while Tyrese Haliburton and Aaron Nesmith are both questionable to suit up. Siakam is a strong option now and could look better throughout the day if Haliburton and Nesmith do not play. Keep an eye on their status.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

One of the best matchups on this five-game slate is the center battle between Domantas Sabonis and Alperen Sengun. Sabonis gets a slight lean due to how consistent and dominant he has played recently. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 14 of his last 16 games, which is incredibly impressive at his high-end price tag. Sabonis is averaging a career-high in both points and rebounds and has posted a double-double in 35 of his 37 games played. He is averaging a remarkable 14.1 rebounds per game.

The Rockets have the best rebounding percentage in the league and that was one of the two games in which Sabonis recorded less than 10 rebounds. However, he still finished with 27 points on 13-for-19 shooting from the field. Even in a difficult spot, Sabonis is worth getting exposure to, given his consistency.


Value

Leading the slate by a wide margin in projected Plus/Minus is Thunder center Jaylin Williams. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein unable to play, Williams is going to have his hands full with the Cavaliers monster frontcourt. Being one of the few big men on the team, Williams will need to play heavy minutes if he stays out of foul trouble. He is currently projected for a modest 25 minutes and is the best value play on the slate due to his $3,300 salary. Williams is drawing 40% projected ownership tonight.

Despite Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley holding it down for the Cavaliers, their rebounding rate has been below average this season. They have also allowed 47.1 points per game in the paint, which also ranks outside of the top 10. Williams is a staple in cash games and a fantastic tournament option for this slate.


Fast Break

Another Clippers player who is having the best year of his career is starting center Ivica Zubac. The big man is averaging a double-double with 15 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. He is shooting 62% from the field and will have no trouble dominating the Trail Blazers frontcourt. The Trail Blazers rank 23rd in rebounding percentage this season, and Deandre Ayton goes on stretches where he seems uninterested in playing basketball. This is a great spot for a Zubac ceiling performance against the Trail Blazers tonight.

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.