After a lighter schedule to start the week as the NBA Cup Quarterfinals took center stage, the NBA has four regular-season contests on the board this Thursday. Three games tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET, with the Celtics visiting the Bucks in the only Eastern Conference contest, while the Clippers visit the Rockets and the Blazers head to the Big Easy to face the Pelicans. In the later matchup to close out the night, the Kings host the Nuggets. No team is on the side of a back-to-back, so we should get fairly normal rotations, with starters maybe getting a little more work than normal since most teams have fewer games this week. We already know of a few key injury absences, and be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury reports come out throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
DraftKings has Deni Avdija as a PG/SF for this slate, and he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard in a great matchup against the Pelicans. His versatility allows him to fit into multiple roster builds if you find value plays that work with his hefty price tag.
Avdija had 42.75 DraftKings points on Sunday against the Grizzlies and was even better with 58.2 DraftKings points last Sunday in a loss to the Pistons. He has produced an impressive 46.9 DraftKings points per game on the season at the rate of 1.69 DraftKings points per minute.
He has at least 57 DraftKings points in four of his last six games, with a high point of 75.75 DraftKings points in a 30-point triple-double against the Thunder.
He’ll be in a great matchup against the Pelicans, who have allowed the third-most points per game this season with the third-worst defensive rating. With Jrue Holiday (calf) and Scoot Henderson (hamstring) both still out on Thursday, Avdija will have to carry the load as the team’s “point forward.” He’ll be looking to record at least seven assists for the seventh straight game and has scored at least 17 points in each of his last six contests as well.
Value
Even though he isn’t extremely cheap, Kevin Porter Jr. has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards on Thursday, behind only Avdija, Malik Monk, and Russell Westbrook, who have been very volatile options for the Kings in their unpredictable rotation. To avoid that uncertainty, Porter is a strong alternative, as he helps carry the load for the Bucks with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) again sidelined.
Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his five games since returning from injury and has scored at least 20 points in four straight. In his last game on Saturday, he posted a season-high 59 DraftKings points by scoring 32 points to go with six assists, four steals, four rebounds, and a blocked shot in a loss to the Pistons.
Since his salary is still under $8,000, he has a great chance to return value, since he has at least 41 DraftKings points in four straight games. The Celtics are a tough matchup for point guards, but since Porter is carrying such a heavy workload, he should be able to overcome the matchup and post another strong showing on Thursday night at home.
Fast Break
Jamal Murray and the Nuggets have the highest implied team total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at point guard as well. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and three straight contests. He had 52 points and 72 DraftKings points last Wednesday in Indiana, showing that high ceiling, and he followed that up with 54.75 DraftKings points against the Hawks and 48.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets in his two games since then.
With Dennis Schroder (hip) doubtful and likely to miss a seventh straight game, Monk and Westbrook will have another chance to step up. Both veterans have flashed a high ceiling at times this year, but they have also gotten inconsistent playing time even in Schroder’s absence, making them high-risk plays with high ceilings. Either one can make sense in GPP lineups, but they’re too boom-or-bust for most cash builds.
If you want to go ultra-cheap at the position, Bruce Brown has a top-five Plus/Minus projection at the position, even though he is coming off 20 statless minutes against the Hornets in his last game. Bojan Bogdanovic is another veteran bargain with good potential off the bench.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Pelicans will continue to be short-handed as they host the Trail Blazers on Thursday night, opening the door for Trey Murphy III to continue to be a fantasy stud. Murphy has been stepping up and posting good numbers even though the team hasn’t been winning. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all shooting guards on Thursday’s slate, and he’ll continue to be the focus of the offense with Zion Williamson (adductor) ruled out. The team could get Jordan Poole (quad, questionable) back for the first time in almost six weeks, but even if he plays, he’ll likely be limited after such a long layoff.
Murphy scored 32 points and finished with 48.25 DraftKings points on Monday in a loss ot the Spurs, and he has 20+ points in four straight games, dating back to a huge double-double against the Timberwolves, when he put up over 60 DraftKings points.
He’s a streaky shooter and scorer, so if he catches fire against the Blazers, he brings a very high ceiling and could be one of the top producers on the board. Murphy isn’t cheap with his salary over $8,000, but he brings enough upside to still be worth considering.
Value
In both the FantasyLabs projections and the ShotQuality projections, Shaedon Sharpe stands out as one of the best values at both shooting guard and small forward on the opposite side of that matchup with Murphy and the Pelicans.
Sharpe has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at both shooting guard and small forward. The 22-year-old from Canada still has a reduced salary since he’s working his way back from missing four games with a calf injury. While he hasn’t returned to the starting lineup yet, he’s played at least 26 minutes in each of his last four games and been part of the closing lineup. He exceeded salary-based expectations in three of those four games and posted over 40 DraftKings points in two of those contests.
Sharpe could be back in the lineup on Thursday, but either way, he’ll be a strong play against the Pelicans, who allow the second-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. Sharpe is a very solid play from his mid-range salary with a good ceiling and solid floor.
Fast Break
In the same matchup as Sharpe, Toumani Camara is also worth a look, since he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the ShotQuality projections. Camara had a bad down game with just one point against the Pistons last Friday but bounced back with his typically balanced production and 28 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies on Sunday. He doesn’t have as high a ceiling as Sharpe, but he can fill multiple categories as a steady option at his salary.
With Christian Braun (ankle) and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) still sidelined for a while, Cameron Johnson and Tim Hardaway Jr. have solid value projections at shooting guard, along with Bruce Brown (discussed above). Hardaway is the best bargain of the bunch and has scored double-digit points in seven straight games, exceeding salary-based expectations in four of his last five.
For the Clippers, Kris Dunn has been getting regular playing time, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last nine games. He scored at least eight points in three of his last four games and added six rebounds, four assists, and three steals last Saturday to finish with 27.5 DraftKings points in Minnesota in his last game. At only $4,000, that’s excellent value, even though his production doesn’t usually result in high scoring.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Avdija has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the ShotQuality projections. If you’re using Avdija at point guard or looking for another option at small forward, Jaylen Brown has been red hot while helping the Celtics get going without Jayson Tatum (Achilles). Brown has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at the position, and if you can afford his hefty salary tag, he should be able to bring a big total.
Brown has at least 50 DraftKings points in seven straight games, averaging 57.2 DraftKings points per game. In those seven games, he is producing 1.50 DraftKings points per minute with an elite 35.3% usage rate.
In a big road game against the Bucks, Brown should be ready for another big game on Thursday, especially since it’s the Celtics’ only game of the week. The star small forward has reached the 30-point threshold in 13 of his 23 games and is averaging a career-best 29.1 points per game this season. He’s a pricey play, but he has been very consistent in his expanded role in Boston this season.
Value
On Monday, the Pelicans got Herbert Jones back from a calf injury that cost him eight games. With Zion still out, Jones will be asked to help carry the load, and he has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of the players under $5,000 at small forward in Thursday’s ShotQuality projections.
In his return on Monday, Jones jumped right back into a critical role, scoring 17 points and contributing his excellent non-scoring numbers with six rebounds, four assists, four steals, and a blocked shot to rack up over 40 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes.
He usually plays substantially more minutes than that, and if he’s ready for his full workload on Thursday, he brings an even better ceiling. His salary is only $4,400, so he doesn’t have to necessarily go off to be a great value.
Fast Break
Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard go head-to-head in one of the most interesting small forward matchups on the board. Both have big potential but don’t stand out as good values at their salaries in the $8,000s. Durant has had better form lately, but Kawhi has been steady with 20+ points in six straight games for the struggling Clippers.
The Kings have relied on DeMar DeRozan to help carry the load with all their injuries, and the veteran continues to be a solid play at small forward as well. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games, and since his salary has recently dropped to $6,500 from over $7,000, meeting those expectations shouldn’t be too difficult for him on Thursday night.
Hardaway and Jones are the best bargain plays at small forward, but if you want to go really cheap, Nique Clifford is a forward option that makes some sense. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the options under $4,000 at small forward, and he had 15 points and six rebounds in his Saturday matchup with the Heat, finishing with 24 DraftKings points. He has that kind of potential if he can get playing time again on Thursday against the Nuggets.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
After missing back-to-back games with an illness, Alperen Sengun is ready to return on Thursday and is not on the injury report for the Rockets as they host the Clippers. The big man has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all power forwards in his expected return.
Sengun posted huge games in his last two games before his illness, racking up an impressive 76.5 DraftKings points against the Jazz and following that with 53 DraftKings points against the Kings. On the season, he’s averaging 23.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 49.5 DraftKings points per game, producing at a rate of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute.
The Clippers have turned to John Collins since Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) went down with an injury, and Sengun should be able to dominate that matchup down low for another big game on Thursday.
Value
Trail Blazers forward Jerami Grant has the highest Plus/Minus projection at power forward in both sets of projections this Thursday in that great matchup against the Pelicans.
Grant has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games and has over 32 DraftKings points in five straight contests, averaging 36.8 DraftKings points per game. Grant’s best mark during that run was 47.5 DraftKings points in his return to Detroit, where he had 29 points in 34 minutes in the Blazers’ loss to the Pistons.
In Portland’s current rotation, Grant is getting enough usage to bring strong upside and good value at just over $6,000 at either forward spot.
Fast Break
Keegan Murray has had to shoulder the load for the Kings with Domantas Sabonis (knee) out, and since his delayed debut, Murray has averaged 34.3 DraftKings points per game on 15.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.8 steals in 38 minutes per contest. He’s been playing through right trapezius soreness, but since he isn’t on the injury report for Thursday, he may be past any limitations for this contest.
Pelicans forward Saddiq Bey has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection on Thursday at power forward. He exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games before a quieter game on Monday. Jones’ return could cut into his workload a little, but he still brings a good ceiling if he helps carry the load without Zion.
One of the best bargain plays at power forward is Boston’s Josh Minott, who has the highest Plus/Minus projection of power forwards under $5,000 in the ShotQuality projections. Minott’s role in the rotation fluctuates based on the matchup, but with Chris Boucher (illness) ruled out, he should have a clearer path to minutes as the team’s primary backup center in a favorable matchup for bigs against the Bucks.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the entire slate comes from Nikola Jokic, which is almost always the case when the Nuggets are in action. Jokic has the highest salary on the boards as well by a wide margin, but if you can find enough value in other spots, he almost always delivers strong per-dollar production.
Jokic has over 50 DraftKings points in all 23 of his games this season and is averaging 67.5 DraftKings points per contest, producing at the astounding rate of 1.93 DraftKings points per minute. He should have a very favorable matchup against the Kings without Sabonis, and he could be set up in an absolute smash spot, especially since the Kings allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season.
He faced the Kings on Nov. 22 and went off for 44 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists in 37 minutes, racking up 72.75 DraftKings points. He played 37 minutes in that home game against the Kings, which the Nuggets ultimately lost. Jokic will be out to avenge that defeat and post another monster game as the Nuggets visit Sacramento in the late game.
Value
Against the Kings, Jonas Valanciunas has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center in both sets of projections. He has played limited minutes off the bench, but he could get some extra time against his former squad in Sacramento this Thursday. He played 11 minutes and had 13.5 DraftKings points in their last meeting.
Valanciunas is a punt play at only $3,400, but if you pay up for Brown, Avdija, and other options, he can be a nice finishing piece at center to save a ton of salary. He’s producing 1.34 DraftKings points per minute off the bench, but he’s only playing 12.5 minutes per game.
He has played 15 minutes or less in each of his last six games but has produced over 14 DraftKings points in each game, including 21 fantasy points in his last matchup against the Hornets on Sunday.
Fast Break
Rookie center Derik Queen has been outstanding for the Pelicans this year and should stay very busy on Thursday with Williamson out. Queen went off on Monday for a monster triple-double, racking up 69 DraftKings points on 33 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and three blocks in 33 minutes against the Spurs. Queen has a very high ceiling but is a boom-or-bust play against the Blazers this Thursday.
The second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in both projections comes from Celtics’ starter Neemias Queta. Queta had a double-double against the Raptors on Sunday for 37.5 DraftKings points, and he has posted over 34 DraftKings points in three of his last five contests. Without Boucher, he could get a few extra minutes, and since the Bucks rely heavily on Myles Turner, the C’s will likely have to play big with Queta for most of the matchup. He typically stuffs the stat sheet in non-scoring categories while throwing down enough lobs to be a solid fantasy option at his salary of just over $5,000.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Imagn
