Thursday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
This five-game slate is lacking star power, but one of the few studs who is playing in a very meaningful game is Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are tied with the Mavericks for the last seed in the play-in tournament but have the tiebreaker. With two games left, a victory over the Jazz tonight will really help. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a career-high 31.4 points per game while shooting an impressive 51.1% from the field.
Since the All-Star break, Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped his game up a notch averaging 34.1 points per game. His peripherals have also increased, which is promising for a point guard mostly known as a scorer. The Thunder are 6.5-point home favorites implied for a slate-high 122.25 points. The Jazz defense has dropped since their hot start, as they now rank 25th in Defensive Rating while allowing 118.0 points per game.
Value
The best team to target from a value standpoint is the Cavaliers. Their top six players are all out, which will provide a ton of usage rate and opportunity for the role players. One of those is veteran point guard Ricky Rubio who has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. Rubio has only played 31 games and has yet to draw a start. That will likely change with Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Caris LeVert out.
In eight games that Rubio started last season, he averaged 19 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game. At $3,100 on DraftKings and projected to play 27 minutes, Rubio has a 98% Bargain Rating. Despite a team total of 105.5 points, it is impossible to ignore all of the Cavaliers value. They have the top five value plays, so Rubio is just the start. Prioritize him on DraftKings, where he is a fantastic salary saver to plug in the studs.
Fast Break
Leading the league with 10.8 assists per game, James Harden has been a key asset for the 76ers in his first full season. Accumulating a double-double has come easy for Harden lately, who has a double-double in nine of his last 12 games. Make sure to monitor his status, as the 76ers have already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. If Harden is good to go, he looks like one of the best contrarian pay-up options in a tough spot against the Heat.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
A victory tonight would solidify the Suns in the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, which would be a home playoff series. They have won six-straight games as they are the current favorites to make the NBA Finals from the West. Devin Booker is averaging a career-high 28 points per game as teammate Kevin Durant has been in and out of the Suns lineup. Booker is shooting 49.7% from the field while making over 10 field goals per game for the first time in his career.
The Suns get a home matchup against the Nuggets, who may be without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. With both stars questionable, it should be no surprise the Suns are 7.5-point home favorites. In his last game against the Nuggets, Booker scored 27 points, which was the 18th game in his last 19 where he scored 22+ points. Booker looks much better on FanDuel, where he has 10 Pro Trends, which is the second-highest on the slate.
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Value
Rookie Shaedon Sharpe has blossomed into a phenomenal scorer as teammates Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons have been shut down for awhile. Sharpe is questionable with a knee injury but has been playing through it and likely won’t want to miss this matchup against the Spurs. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games as he is averaging 25.2 points per game over that time. He also has 5+ assists in four-straight games.
This matchup with the Spurs has the second-highest total on the slate at 230 points. The Spurs continue to rank last in Defensive Rating (119.6) while allowing a league-high 122.7 points per game. Since getting an extra opportunity without Lillard and Simons, Sharpe has scored 20+ points in seven of his last eight games. Make sure he suits up, but Sharpe has one of the highest ceilings among all of the guard options.
Fast Break
Josh Giddey is another Thunder guard worth getting exposure to in this critical game against the Jazz. His ceiling is limited playing alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Giddey leads the Thunder in rebounds and assists this season and has triple-double upside anytime he takes the floor. Giddey is also second in scoring behind Gilgeous-Alexander. He stuffs the stat sheet in a variety of ways and deserves consideration as one of the better guard options.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kevin Durant has been a little inconsistent since returning from injury, but a few of those poor performances have to do with the Suns blowing out the opposing team. The inconsistencies recently have kept Durant’s salary in check on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has scored 30+ in two of his last three games while shooting 24 of 36 from the field during those two games. Durant’s ceiling is always so high based on how well he shoots the ball.
Despite the Nuggets having the best record in the Western Conference, they rank below average in Defensive Rating and have nothing to play for as they have locked up the No. 1 seed. When Durant and Devin Booker play alongside each other, Booker does have a higher usage rate, but Durant’s is still respectable at 27.5%. Getting Durant around 15% projected ownership is enticing on such a small slate when we know he can heat up in a hurry.
Value
A little piece of advice: ignore the game logs when looking at the rest of the Cavaliers value players. Example one would be Cedi Osman. He has played less than 10 minutes in his last two games and has single-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five games. However, when given the minutes, Osman can provide a little upside. He is projected to start and play 32 minutes as he has the highest projected ownership on FanDuel and second-highest on DraftKings.
The addition of Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert has put a backseat to the Osman experience. However, with both out of the lineup tonight, along with many others, Osman is poised for a strong performance, given the extra usage.
Similar to Rubio, Osman looks much better on DraftKings, where he is only $3,400 with an 84% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Talen Horton-Tucker has taken full advantage of the Jazz sitting nearly all of their starters. He has five-straight games with a positive Plus/Minus as he is 28 points and seven assists per game over that time with a 36.4% usage rate. The Thunder rank second in Pace (101.9), so this should be an up-tempo game environment that seems to favor Horton-Tucker. He has the fifth-highest ceiling on DraftKings and the seventh-highest on FanDuel, proving his rising salary is worth it.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler has over 58 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, as he has averaged a double-double with 31 points and 10 assists per game while shooting 75% from the field. Butler leads the Heat in scoring, assists, and steals per game and is shooting a career-high 53.7% from the field. The Heat have an outside shot of avoiding the play-in tournament, but they will need a win on the road against the 76ers as three-point underdogs.
When the competition rises, Butler seems to play his best. In his last game at Philadelphia, Butler had a near triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, and four steals. He shot 9 of 14 in that matchup, even though the 76ers rank eighth in Defensive Rating this season. At $8,800 on DraftKings, Butler has a 96% Bargain Rating and 9 Pro Trends. He is another worthy contrarian pay-up option in a must-win game for the Heat.
Value
Lamar Stevens, like Cedi Osman, has a disgusting game log, but he is projected to play 32 minutes and has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. He is very similarly priced to his Cavaliers teammates on both sites and will be popular. Stevens has been in and out of the Cavaliers starting lineup, but when he starts, he is averaging 16.3 DraftKings points per game. Expect that to rise playing alongside the Cavaliers reserves.
Stevens is shooting a career-best 3-point percentage and that is one of the best ways to attack this Magic defense. They are allowing 36.8 3-point attempts per game, which ranks as the third-highest in the league. It won’t be pretty, but Stevens is another Cavaliers value player worth targeting on this five-game slate.
Fast Break
Kelly Olynyk has benefited from the absence of Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, as he has stuffed the stat sheet by scoring, rebounding, and capturing assists. Olynyk should feast on the small Thunder frontcourt that ranks 27th in Rebounding Percentage this season. He looks a little better on FanDuel, where he also has center eligibility and is only $7,000. Great matchup for a versatile big man who will get a ton of opportunity.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid is coming off of a massive game against the Celtics, where he had 52 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists while tying his career-high with 20 field goals made. With that performance, many believe Embiid locked in the MVP award for the first time in his career. Does he have an encore against his arch-nemesis Bam Adebayo? He has struggled in this matchup, but Adebayo is questionable to play tonight, which would certainly increase Embiid’s upside.
Embiid has the highest ceiling in our NBA Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He displayed his upside last game with over 80 DraftKings points, and even in a low-scoring game, Embiid can put up a slate-winning fantasy score. Embiid leads the league with 33.3 points per game while shooting a career-best 54.7% from the field. He is arguably the best pay-up option, as his upside is difficult to matchup.
Value
With seven consecutive games with a positive Plus/Minus, Drew Eubanks is the best value center and is a great way to differentiate from all of the Cavaliers value. Eubanks is probable to play while Jusuf Nurkic is out, and Trendon Watford is questionable. Eubanks has three-straight games scoring over 30 DraftKings points, as he has one double-double during that time. He looks like a great value not only by how he has played recently but the matchup.
The Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league but are also allowing a league-high 56.6 points per game in the paint this season. They rank 22nd in Rebounding Percentage as well, providing a great opportunity for Eubanks to record another double-double. Both of these teams are terrible, which does draw interest from a fantasy standpoint.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic is questionable but deserves consideration if he is able to play. The matchup with Deandre Ayton isn’t the easiest, but the walking triple-double can have a ceiling game against anyone. Jokic played two days ago in their loss against the Rockets, so make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. If he plays, Jokic has one of the highest ceilings, as he is averaging 24.8 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game this season.
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