Thursday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
And then there were three. That’s how many slates are left in the NBA regular season, including a small five-game slate on Thursday. As usual, there are going to be plenty of values to target, with multiple teams dealing with injuries and rest.
The Hawks are one of the few teams that have consistently provided a pay-up option for us down the stretch. Trae Young has been a solid source of production, scoring at least 47.75 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games.
He stands out as an excellent pay-up option once again on Thursday. He draws a strong matchup vs. the Nets, and the Hawks’ 122.75 implied team total ranks first on the slate. Young ultimately owns the top ceiling projection at point guard, and he has the second-highest ceiling projection overall.
Value
Ty Jerome is basically a free square on this slate. He’s been one of the most productive reserves in basketball this season, averaging more than 12 points per game in less than 20 minutes. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute.
Jerome should step into a much more prominent role vs. the Pacers. The Cavaliers have already ruled out Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley, leaving Jerome as their offensive focal point. He’s seen a +8.93% usage bump with all three players off the floor this season, resulting in a team-high 32.71% mark in that split. He’s responded by increasing his production to 1.47 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models.
That makes him nearly impossible to avoid at $4,700. His price tag comes with a massive 97% Bargain Rating, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. He’s also showing up in the optimal lineup rate nearly 68% of the time. Jerome is going to command massive ownership vs. the Pacers, but he’s chalk worth eating.
Fast Break
Kevin Porter Jr. has taken on a more prominent role for the Bucks of late. He’s played at least 25.2 minutes in three straight games, and he’s racked up at least 41.5 DraftKings points in each of them. Porter is an elite producer on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – so he should continue to rack up points with Damian Lillard sidelined. He’s another player who is massively underpriced on DraftKings, with his $4,800 salary resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
The Knicks have wasted little time getting Jalen Brunson back up to speed. He played 34.5 minutes in his first game back in the lineup, and that figure was up to 38.4 in his second. He could be even busier vs. the Pistons, with Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, and Mitchell Robinson all already ruled out.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Knicks have underutilized Mikal Bridges for most of the season. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, but his numbers are way down from his time in Brooklyn. His usage rate is about 5% lower than it was last season, with Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns doing most of the heavy lifting.
However, Bridges should be able to return value through sheer volume on Thursday. With Anunoby, Hart, and Robinson out of the lineup, Bridges could see even more playing time than usual. He’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models, and that’s a ton for someone with a $5,700 price tag. Bridges has also seen a +4.17% usage bump with Anunoby and Hart off the floor, resulting in an average of 0.86 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Sam Merrill is another potential source of value for the Cavaliers. He’s not nearly as productive as Jerome on a per-minute basis, but he’s projected for 30 minutes at just $3,300. It’s tough to beat that combination. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.18 (per the Trends tool). Merrill has also averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley off the floor this season, so he has the potential to be efficient with his playing time as well.
Fast Break
It’s taken longer than expected, but Donte DiVincenzo is starting to find his groove with the Timberwolves. He turned in the best season of his career with the Knicks last year but was shipped to Minnesota in the Towns deal. His numbers have been down, but he’s increased his production to 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s coming off 32.25 DraftKings points in 27.6 minutes vs. the Bucks in his last outing, and he’s projected for a similar workload in a pace-up spot vs. the Grizzlies.
Dyson Daniels could be an interesting contrarian option at the position. He’ll likely be a bit overlooked, with most choosing to pay up at other positions. However, Daniels has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s displayed an excellent ceiling for his price tag of late. He’s racked up at least 42.0 DraftKings points in four of his past eight games, and he’s gotten to 50+ in two of them.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
There is no true stud to target at small forward on Thursday. Ausar Thompson has the top salary at the position at just $6,700, while Bridges owns the top ceiling projection. There are lots of players who provide big potential value at small forward, so this is definitely a position to save some salary.
However, it is worth noting that Kyle Kuzma could end up as a potential stud target if Giannis Antetokounmpo is ruled out. He’s currently listed as questionable, so pay attention to the injury report before tip-off. Kuzma has seen a +5.44% bump to his usage rate with Antetokounmpo and Lillard off the floor this season, and he’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute in that scenario. He would have appeal against a Pelicans squad that is among the worst in the league on the defensive end.
Value
The Hawks don’t have the same number of absences as some of the other teams on this slate, but that doesn’t stop Caris LeVert from standing out as an elite value target. He’s had some strong performances of late, including 38.75 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Jazz, and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes vs. the Nets, and his $4,500 salary comes with an 89% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Terance Mann is another possibility for the Hawks. He’s dirt cheap at $3,300, and he’s projected for a respectable 24.5 minutes the Nets. He doesn’t have nearly the same upside as some of the other value options on this slate, but he’s a decent bet to return value.
Antonio Reeves has gotten the opportunity to play a bunch for the shorthanded Pelicans down the stretch. He’s racked up at least 29.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s finished with at least 29.25 DraftKings points in both outings. He has attempted at least nine 3-pointers in both contests, so he has some upside if his jump shot is falling.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
If Antetokounmpo is in the lineup, he undoubtedly deserves some attention on a slate with an endless supply of value plays. He owns the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models by nearly 10 full points, and he’s carried a heavy burden with Lillard sidelined of late. He’s averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a solid bump to his assist rate with Lillard off the court this season. Giannis has responded with double-digit assists in four straight games, and he’s had triple-doubles in three straight. Ultimately, he’s finished with at least 63.25 DraftKings points in all four contests, including one game with 94.25.
Giannis is extremely pricy at $12,700 vs. the Pelicans, but his salary is basically irrelevant with so much value available. He can fit in your lineup pretty easily, and his raw point potential is vital.
Value
De’Andre Hunter should also see a solid bump in value for the Cavs on Thursday. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his minutes have been capped in the mid-20s. He’s projected for 30 minutes vs. the Pacers, and he has the potential to be more productive on a per-minute basis as well. Hunter has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley off the floor, so he’s another excellent option at just $4,300.
Fast Break
Dean Wade is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he should also see plenty of minutes for Cleveland. He’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.02 with a comparable minute projection. Wade hasn’t been a great per-minute producer overall – he’s averaged just 0.60 over the past month – but he’s averaged a much more impressive 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 65 minutes without Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley.
The Pacers are still fighting for seeding in the Eastern Conference, and Pascal Siakam has put together back-to-back strong showings. He’s had 47.0 and 50.75 DraftKings points in his past two games, giving him plenty of upside at $7,600 against a depleted Cavs’ roster.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Towns is the final pay-up option to consider on this slate, though he stands out as one of the weaker ones. His matchup vs. the Pistons isn’t ideal, with Detroit rating as one of the best defensive teams in basketball for most of the year.
That said, Towns is coming off more than 60 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he possesses one of the higher ceilings on the slate. He’s also seen a +6.15% bump to his usage rate with Anunoby and Hart off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.55 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Sticking with the Knicks, the team’s current injury situation should force Precious Achiuwa into a much larger role. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes at just $3,300, and Achuiwa has been productive when he’s gotten an opportunity of late. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do significant damage with that much playing time. Like Jerome, Achiuwa is a tough value option to avoid on Thursday, with his optimal lineup rate checking in above 53%.
Fast Break
Don’t forget about Zach Edey. He’s not a “new” source of value like some of the other options on this slate, but he still stands out as massively underpriced for his current role. He’s seen a big spike in minutes over his past few games, and he’s responded with some big performances. He has at least 40.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four, so getting him for $5,500 is a steal.
Rudy Gobert is coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but he had a positive Plus/Minus in each of his seven previous games. He had more than 50 DraftKings points in three of his past five outings, and his playing time has been up over that stretch. He’s another player with an excellent ceiling for his price tag.
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Pictured: Caris LeVert
Photo Credit: Imagn
