NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Saturday, April 4)

The NBA has just over a week remaining, and with the postseason looming, this Saturday features a small three-game slate that gets an early start at 3:00 p.m. ET, leaving the evening mostly for the college basketball contests. The three games on the slate are good ones, though, starting with the Spurs visiting the Nuggets and the Heat hosting the Wizards. Later, the final matchup of the day is the 76ers hosting the Pistons. Philadelphia is the only team playing for a second day in a row after beating the Timberwolves on Friday night. Be sure to check back for the Sixers injury report and any other updates, since making the right last-minute adjustments is a key to fantasy basketball success, especially at this time of the season.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

In the FantasyLabs projections, Tyler Herro has the third-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, but his salary is so much lower than the other elite options that he stands out as a strong stud play against the woeful Wizards.

Herro is probable with foot soreness, but he should get all the work he can handle with Norman Powell (illness) out for a fourth straight game. Herro had 18 points, seven assists, and 34.75 DraftKings points against the Celtics in his last game, but before that had back-to-back 30-point performances against the Sixers and Pacers, earning 45.5 and 43.2 DraftKings points, respectively.

The Wizards have been one of the best matchups all season for point guards, and this will be the first time Herro faces them since scoring 27 points to go with five rebounds and five assists just over a year ago. In this contest, Herro’s Heat have the highest implied team total (133) by a wide margin according to our Vegas dashboard.

Herro should be a strong play to build around Saturday afternoon, and his relatively affordable salary makes him easier to pair with other stars.

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Value

When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, De’Aaron Fox of the Spurs has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards. Fox has been playing very well for the Spurs as they’ve surged up the standings and will try to step up in Saturday’s big game against the Nuggets.

Fox is coming off a big game against the Clippers on Thursday, when he finished the back-to-back with 22 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and 44.5 DraftKings points. He had an even better 46.25 DraftKings points against the Nuggets in the two teams’ last meeting on March 12, when he had 27 points and nine assists in 36 minutes.

In close games against tough opponents, Fox still has the ability to step up and post big numbers, and he has a good chance to do that again in Denver on Saturday in what should be a high-scoring and very entertaining contest.

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Fast Break

The highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position come from Tyrese Maxey, who has been getting help from Paul George and Joel Embiid as the Sixers get healthy and whole for a potential playoff run. Maxey is still putting up strong numbers even though he’s not carrying the entire offense anymore. He had 21 points and 43.5 DraftKings points on Friday and has 43+ DraftKings points in six straight. He’s an expensive play to build around, but if any of his teammates get the night off, he brings a very high ceiling.

Without Cade Cunningham (lung), Daniss Jenkins has stepped up as a key contributor for the Pistons. He had 26 points and 44.75 DraftKings points in the team’s win on Thursday against the Timberwolves. He has over 35 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games while averaging 38.5 DraftKings points per contest.

In the same matchup as Herro against the Wizards, Davion Mitchell has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all point guards in both sets of projections. He had 21 points and 36.5 DraftKings points against the Celtics in his most recent game. He had 28.75 DraftKings points in his last matchup with the Wizards and has averaged 24.9 DraftKings points per game in his 12 contests dating back to that matchup.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

In both sets of projections, Stephon Castle has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard and the highest median and floor projections as well. Castle and Herro are very close in salary and each has a high ceiling in Saturday’s contest.

Castle has been excellent for the Spurs, posting over 42 DraftKings points in three straight games before slowing down a little bit with only 31.5 DraftKings points on Thursday. He went off for a monster 30-point triple-double in his last matchup with the Nuggets that earned him 64.2 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. That game is the only time this season Castle has faced Denver.

Dating back to that game, Castle has averaged 42.2 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 contests. He dealt with a hip issue during that stretch, but he seems fully recovered and ready to roll for this showdown rematch against the Nuggets that could be a playoff series preview.

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Value

Without Powell available for Saturday’s matchup with the Wizards, Pelle Larsson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in both sets of projections and the highest at small forward as well in the FantasyLabs projections.

Larsson’s role has fluctuated depending on how healthy the rest of the team’s rotation is, but he has played 36, 36, and 38 minutes in the last three games while Powell has been out and has produced 25.2, 40.5, and 37.2 DraftKings points. He had a double-double against the Sixers on Monday and followed that with 18 points, six assists, and three steals for another strong showing in Wednesday’s loss to Boston.

Larsson has scored double-digit points in five straight and 14 of his last 15 games, so he has a high floor with Powell out, and he also brings a very high ceiling. He brings extremely strong value upside from under $5,000 in this very favorable matchup against the Wizards.

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Fast Break

Herro, Castle, and Larsson stand out as the three best shooting guards almost any way you slice the projections. If you want a pivot play, V.J. Edgecombe of the Sixers is still involved enough to be worth a look. He has been a little quieter with George and Embiid back, but if either of those stars sit the second game of the back-to-back, Edgecombe could pick up the slack. He had 23 points, 10 assists, and 43.2 DraftKings points on Wednesday and can still shine if called upon for a bigger role Saturday.

Spurs rookie Dylan Harper has continued to chip in good numbers off the bench and can be a solid option if you need a play with a mid-range salary. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 12 contests.

If you opt to go cheap, Bruce Brown has the highest Plus/Minus projections at both point guard and shooting guard of the plays available under $4,000. He has scored double-digit points in six of his last 10 games, averaging 9.8 points, 3.2 boards, and 1.5 assists in 21.6 minutes per contest.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Paul George has looked sharp since returning from suspension, and the veteran brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward in both sets of projections.

George has played five games since returning and is averaging 27.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 3.2 steals, and 50.6 DraftKings points per game. He went off for 63.2 DraftKings points against the Wizards earlier this week and had a solid 48 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves on Friday.

As long as he’s ready to go for the second night of the back-to-back, George should be a great option in either forward spot based on his elite upside of 50+ DraftKings points.

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Value

In the ShotQuality projections, Jaime Jaquez Jr. edges out his teammate Pelle Larsson for the top Plus/Minus projection at small forward. Both are outstanding options as they help fill in for Powell against the Wizards.

Jaquez had a double-double of 17 points and 10 rebounds in 30 minutes against the Celtics on Wednesday, finishing with 36 DraftKings points. He had 30+ DraftKings points in each of the three games that Powell has missed with his current illness, making him a strong value to consider at only $5,200.

The Wizards have been one of the best matchups for small forwards all season, and if Jaquez gets extra playing time, he brings a very high ceiling. He hasn’t shown quite as much scoring potential as Larsson, but he does typically chip in excellent non-scoring numbers.

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Fast Break

Devin Vassell has the third-highest ceiling projection at small forward behind George and Jaquez in the ShotQuality projections. He has become a little more boom or bust with Castle, Harper, and Fox all posting big numbers in some games. He stepped up with 14 points, 10 boards, and 32.5 DraftKings points in the Spurs’ win on Thursday against the Clippers and still brings very solid upside if his outside shot heats up or he does such good work on the glass.

Besides Larsson and Jaquez, Cameron Johnson has the highest Plus/Minus projection at small forward in the FantasyLabs projections. Johnson hasn’t had quite the impact the Nuggets were hoping for when they traded Michael Porter Jr. for him in the offseason, but he has had a few strong games lately, including 44.2 DraftKings points in his most recent game on Wednesday against the Jazz.

The Pistons are getting more work from Kevin Huerter with Cade Cunningham out, and he can be a bargain option with his salary just over $4,000. He has scored at least 11 points in four of his last five games and had a high point of 36.5 DraftKings points during that run on March 30 against the Thunder, contributing 17 points, six rebounds, and six assists.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Tobias Harris has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward in the ShotQualitiy projections behind only George, and he has a much better Plus/Minus projection since he is $2,000 more affordable.

Harris has carried more of the load without Cunningham and exceeded salary-based expectations in six of eight games before slowing down in his two contests earlier this week. He had 12 points and 27.25 DraftKings points in a win over the Raptors on Tuesday, but on Thursday, he only managed two points before leaving with a leg contusion.

Harris is questionable for Saturday’s game against his former team, the 76ers. He will be a solid option if he plays, but if he sits out, Huerter, Ronald Holland II, and Javonte Green would get more work on the wings.

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Value

In both sets of projections, Andrew Wiggins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward since he’s in such a great matchup against the Wizards.

Wiggins missed a couple of weeks with a toe issue in March but has worked his way back to a full workload. He played under 24 minutes in each of his first three games back, but then he played 38, 36, and 32 minutes in his last three games, posting 39, 34, and 26.5 DraftKings points.

With his salary just over $5,000, he’ll be a great value if he can get over 30 DraftKings points again on Saturday, which definitely seems possible with his matchup against Washington and Powell ruled out.

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Fast Break

There isn’t a lot of depth at power forward behind Wiggins, Harris, and George. Cameron Johnson is a boom-or-bust play as discussed above, while Julian Champagnie can also get hot from long range and provide value for the Spurs on the other side of that matchup. Champagnie was a big contributor earlier in the season as the Spurs dealt with injuries, but he has played a smaller role lately.

Dominick Barlow had 27 DraftKings points with seven points and 10 rebounds on Friday night against the Timberwolves and is still under $4,000 as a good value. He could get extra work if other Sixers rest on Saturday on the second night of the back-to-back.

If Harris is out or less than 100%, Holland would have interesting upside at only $3,600. He has shown flashes of potential, but he has a role that is too small for fantasy reliability when the Pistons are at full strength, which they will not be on Saturday.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The big spotlight showdown on Saturday night will be Nikola Jokic taking on Victor Wembanyama again in a clash of fantasy basketball titans. Wembanyama missed Thursday’s game with an ankle injury but isn’t on the injury report for Saturday, setting up the first matchup between these two superstars this season.

Jokic had an impressive 88 DraftKings points on 31 points, 20 rebounds, and 12 assists the last time he played the Spurs, but Wemby was not on the floor for that game. Over his last 13 games, Jokic is averaging 23.3 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 12.8 assists, producing nine triple-doubles in those 13 contests. He had a triple-double in just 33 minutes on Wednesday against the Jazz and finished with over 70 DraftKings points in three of his last five games.

Wembanyama is almost $1,000 cheaper and a little easier to build around. He’s coming off back-to-back monster games with exactly 41 points in wins over the Bulls and Warriors. Wemby had 77 DraftKings points against the Bulls and 76.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors, and he has at least 61 DraftKings points in four of his last five contests.

This will be the first head-to-head matchup of the big men this season, and both are elite options. I would lean slightly toward Wemby for the salary savings and better value, but both are great options to build around due to their immensely high ceilings in what should be an epic showdown Saturday afternoon.

Basketball fans are the real winners if we get to watch these two megastars go head-to-head on Saturday.

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Value

While he isn’t a “bargain,” Bam Adebayo has the highest Plus/Minus projections in both sets of projections. He had 83 points and 107.75 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Wizards, but this time around, he’ll have more help from the rest of the roster. He still has a very high ceiling, though, and he has a salary much cheaper than either Jokic or Wembanyama.

Adebayo has been rolling lately, posting five straight double-doubles and putting up 55 DraftKings points against the Sixers and 51 DraftKings points against the Celtics earlier this week.

He has the potential to go off again in this matchup against Washington, and using him as your center saves enough to make significant upgrades across the rest of your roster compared to Wemby and Jokic. It is also possible to stack him with one of those superstars in a utility spot, but it will stretch your salary cap space thin across the rest of your roster.

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Fast Break

Center is ridiculously stacked on this small slate, with Jalen Duren also playing extremely well in addition to the three stars already discussed in this section. Duren had 50.5 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves on 22 points and 14 rebounds in 36 minutes on Friday. He has at least 47 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and will remain the key to the offense with Cunningham still out.

If you opt to go with a cheaper option than all the stars on the board, Paul Reed is getting extra work for the Pistons right now with Isaiah Stewart out. He had three straight strong showings with double-digit points before scoring only four points on Friday. He could be a good bargain bounce-back option against his former team in Philadelphia on Saturday night.

Luke Kornet stepped in and had 23 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in a spot start for Wemby on Thursday, but he should return to the bench and serve as the primary backup on Saturday. He doesn’t bring as high a ceiling as Reed as a bargain play, but he has made the most of his limited minutes in some recent games with either double-digit points or double-digit rebounds, making him one of the safer cheap plays at a position that’s loaded with high-priced options with high upside.