After a great Play-in Tournament, the NBA starts the playoffs with a four-game slate on Saturday. DraftKings has all four games on a massive all-day slate and also a night slate featuring just the two later games. The action starts at 1:00 p.m. ET when the Bucks face the Pacers, followed by the Clippers taking on the Nuggets in Denver. In the two nighttime matchups, the Knicks host the Pistons, and the Timberwolves visit the Lakers to close out the day. None of these teams were in the Play-in Tournament, so all should be rested and ready to start their playoff run. If you’re ready to get your playoff DFS lineups off and running, several strong options stand out that are worth considering.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
James Harden has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the four-game slate at point guard as well as the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He finished the season scorching hot and helped his Clippers climb to the No. 5 seed in the West by winning their final eight games and 15 of their last 17 to close the season.
After avoiding the Play-In Tournament, Harden and the rest of the team should benefit from the extra rest after a long season. Harden finished the year with an average of 47.6 DraftKings points per game and 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He closed out the season with 60+ DraftKings points in three straight and four of his final five games.
Against the Warriors in the final regular season game, Harden had 39 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, and 71.75 DraftKings points while playing 48 minutes, including all of the second half and overtime.
Harden will have to carry a huge workload since the Clippers don’t have much depth at point guard, but he has shown he is up to the challenge with his recent performances, and on a slate full of elite point guards, he stands out in our projections as the best play.
Value
Timberwolves point guards Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo both rank very highly on this slate in Projected Plus/Minus. Conley has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard because he’s so affordable under $4,000, while DiVincenzo has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Depending on how cheap you need to go, both are viable options in Los Angeles against the Lakers.
Conley played very limited minutes toward the end of the season, but he still had 15+ DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games, with at least 23 DraftKings points in five of those games. He should be fresh and ready to roll and is a proven playoff performer. The veteran is a great punt play with good upside, especially since he has been in the starting lineup while DiVincenzo has been coming off the bench.
DiVincenzo had at least eight points and multiple three-pointers in each of the team’s last five games. He also had 27.75 DraftKings points the last time he faced the Lakers, chipping in a well-balanced stat line of nine points, six assists, and five rebounds in just 23 minutes.
DiVincenzo brings a higher ceiling than Conley but is a little riskier as well, costing $400 more of your salary cap. If you have the cap space available, I’d take DiVincenzo, but if you need to go cheaper, Conley is an excellent value play as well.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, but he’s also extremely expensive. His Projected Plus/Minus is behind Harden’s, and his workload is less certain since LeBron James will likely carry the load. The Timberwolves have done a good job against point guards this season and will be a tough matchup for Luka, who only averaged 39.2 DraftKings points in three games against Minnesota this season.
In an outstanding point guard matchup, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Brunson will go head to head in their Eastern Conference matchup. Cunningham had a breakout season, producing 50.9 DraftKings points per game. He averaged 53.4 DraftKings points per game against the Knicks at an impressive rate of 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. He’s another great elite option to build around.
With Damian Lillard (calf) coming back soon but not quite ready yet, Kevin Porter Jr. is a great value play against the Pacers. Porter finished the season with over 35 DraftKings points in each of his last five games before sitting out the regular season finale. In those final five games, he produced 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 43.8 DraftKings points per contest. With an increased role, he brings an extremely high ceiling and is almost a must-start for as long as Lillard is out.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Timberwolves will need a huge series from Anthony Edwards to have a shot at knocking off the Luka and LeBron Lakers. Edwards has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard and finished the regular season with over 40 points and 59 DraftKings points in two of his last three games.
Edwards carries a huge amount of the workload in Minnesota, posting a 31.9% usage rate during the regular season and producing 45.7 DraftKings points and 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. He also led the league with 320 made three-pointers and missed just three games all season.
He did not have big games against the Lakers, but he’ll need to step up and produce in the postseason like he has in past years. On this slate, Ant has the highest ceiling of all shooting guards based on his huge workload, so if you have the salary available, he makes a great pay-up play in the late game.
Value
One of the exciting new features introduced this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. In both the ShotQuality projections and the FantasyLabs projections, Aaron Nesmith stands out as one of the best values on the board. He brings dual eligibility at shooting guard and small forward, which makes him a versatile fit for almost any roster build.
Nesmith was limited to 45 games this season by injury, but when available, he was very productive, averaging 21.6 DraftKings points per game. He played just 14 minutes in the regular season finale, but before that, he had double-digit points in 12 of his previous 15 games, averaging 15.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 26.7 DraftKings points per game.
Nesmith played the Bucks twice this season, and in their last matchup, he dropped 30 points and finished with 43 DraftKings points. He has a very high ceiling but also brings a solid floor since he usually contributes good non-scoring numbers. Getting him at just $4,100 makes him one of the best value plays of the day.
Fast Break
Mikal Bridges has the fourth-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard in both sets of projections. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard in the ShotQuality projections. Before playing just a few seconds in the regular season finale, Bridges had exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his previous nine games, with 34+ DraftKings points in three of his previous four contests. He ramped up his assists coming down the stretch, and it will be interesting to see how he and Brunson split up the workload against Detroit.
The health of Jamal Murray will be a key story line to watch in the Nuggets-Clippers series. We’ve seen him do awesome things in the playoffs in the past, but he played limited minutes and missed multiple games down the stretch with a hamstring injury. If he’s at less than full strength, Christian Braun could be an excellent play with more work coming his way.
If you want to go cheap at shooting guard, Kris Dunn is a good alternative to Nesmith and DiVincenzo. Dunn exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 11 games with over 20 DraftKings points in more than half of those games. He doesn’t get a lot of usage alongside Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Norman Powell, but he’s a key part of the starting lineup and contributes enough counting stats to be a solid value play at shooting guard.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
In both sets of projections, Kawhi Leonard has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both projections.
Kawhi played heavy minutes down the stretch and looked ready to go for the postseason. He played 47 minutes in the regular-season finale against the Warriors and dropped 33 points and 56.5 DraftKings points. He had over 44 DraftKings points in four straight games to finish the season and helped the Clippers surge into the postseason.
Leonard did not face the Nuggets this season, so it’s hard to know exactly what the matchup will look like. However, we know how outstanding a healthy Kawhi can be in the postseason. He is actually relatively affordable under $8,500 and can be a very strong cornerstone to build around on Saturday.
Value
Even though his role off the bench can fluctuate from game to game, Nickeil Alexander-Walker is an excellent bargain value to consider at small forward. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $4,000 on Saturday in both sets of projections.
NAW exceeded his salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 14 games of the regular season, averaging 22.8 DraftKings points per game in 25.6 minutes off the bench. He has shown impressive versatility with big games of scoring, plenty of assists, solid rebounding, and game-winning free throws over that span.
With the Wolves fully healthy and no one suspended, his role is a little uncertain, which makes him risky, but he has been a very steady presence off the bench this season for the Wolves and has stepped up when called upon for more production. If that happens Saturday, he could end up being the key value of the slate.
Fast Break
Josh Hart always brings a very solid floor due to his heavy workload. He averaged 12.0 points, 9.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.2 steals in 37.8 minutes per game over his last five contests and had a high point of 52.5 DraftKings points against the Hawks during that run. He doesn’t have the scoring upside of Kawhi or LeBron but always stuffs the stat sheet.
After a delayed start to the season due to blood clots, Ausar Thompson stepped up and was a key contributor for the Pistons down the stretch. Before playing reduced minutes in his last two games of the season, he had over 35 DraftKings points in four straight. He did struggle against New York, but he’ll look to reverse that trend in the postseason.
If you need to go cheap at small forward, Alexander-Walker and Nesmith are strong options discussed above. If you have a little more salary available, Rui Hachimura is another good play to consider. He is not on the injury report and should be available for his normal workload against the Wolves. He scored 15+ points in three of his last four regular season contests and had over 23 fantasy points in each of those four games. He’s a nice complementary piece for the Lakers, and with an affordable salary, he can bring good upside.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to carry the Bucks early in their playoff series since Damian Lillard is still out. Lillard is making “significant progress” with his blood clot issue and could be back soon.
Giannis has taken his game to another level without Dame, averaging an amazing 72 DraftKings points per game over his six games in April. He finished his regular season with a 32-point triple-double against the Pistons that earned him 77.25 DraftKings points before taking the last game of the season off to gear up for this matchup with the Pacers.
In the regular season, Giannis averaged 61.7 DraftKings points in four games against Indiana on 30 points, 12.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game. He had 63.5 DraftKings points in their last meeting in March.
Since he’s healthy and without Lillard, Giannis brings an extremely high ceiling this Saturday. He’ll most likely be one of the top producers on this star-studded slate and could go off for a monster game that makes him worth all of his elevated salary.
Value
The highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in both sets of projections comes from Giannis’s teammate Bobby Portis. Portis served a long suspension but was able to ramp up with three games before the postseason and will be a key contributor in this series against Indiana.
Portis had 14+ points in all three of his games after returning from suspension and played his usual workload of minutes in two of those games. In both of those two contests, he finished with a double-double, producing 40.5 DraftKings points against Minnesota and 35 DraftKings points against the Pistons.
He’ll be one of the first options off the bench for Milwaukee in the playoffs and has shown he can put up big numbers when given usage. At just $5,000, he brings a very high upside and can help balance some of Giannis’s hefty price tag.
Fast Break
It’s hard to fade LeBron James in the playoffs, but his salary is extremely high compared to the other players on this slate, and Kawhi Leonard has better projections at a lower salary. With Luka and Austin Reaves to help carry the load, he doesn’t have to do it all like Giannis either. He should be primed for a great postseason and always steps up in the playoffs, but at his salary on this slate, there are better options on the board.
Tobias Harris is another strong mid-range play to consider as an alternative to Portis. Harris missed three games with heel soreness in April but returned to play two solid games against the Knicks and Bucks. He had 17 points in each of those games and earned 24 and 34 DraftKings points. While his ceiling isn’t quite as high as Portis’s, he has been a steadier option overall this season. In his four matchups with the Knicks, he averaged 28.9 DraftKings points per game.
If you need a cheap play at power forward, Dorian Finney-Smith has been getting good minutes for the Lakers and can offer good upside even though his usage is typically low. He contributes good rebounds and defensive stats while chipping in a few points as well. He finished the year with four straight games over 21 DraftKings points and even went off for 44.5 DraftKings points in a game against Houston at the end of March. The “three and D” specialist brings upside based on his workload and should be a decent value just over $4,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic brings an immensely high ceiling to every matchup since he can put up absolutely incredible stats in any matchup. He took it easy in the Nuggets’ regular season finale against the Rockets, but before that, he was on a run of eight straight games with at least 62 DraftKings points.
Jokic finished the year with averages of 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game after posting 34 triple-doubles in 70 games. Before his quiet finale, he had four triple-doubles in five games, finishing just one assist short of another triple-double in the one game he didn’t get there.
Against the Clippers and Ivica Zubac, he averaged 54.8 fantasy points, but he hasn’t faced them since December, and his recent numbers have been even better.
Getting almost a full week of rest should set him up for a great series against the Clippers, and Jokic will look to bring another title to Denver despite their in-season turmoil.
Value
Jalen Duren has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center in the ShotQuality projections and the highest of the options behind Portis and the expensive plays. Duren is a great mid-range target who still brings elite upside as his Pistons visit the Knicks.
He only logged eight minutes in his last game of the season, but before that, he was on a great roll, posting six double-doubles in his previous seven games and 40+ DraftKings points in three of four. He had 18 points on a perfect 9-for-9 shooting against the Knicks during that stretch with 13 rebounds and 41.25 DraftKings points.
Duren’s breakthrough hasn’t been as hyped as Cade’s, but it has been just as critical to the Pistons’ turnaround this season. He averaged a double-double of 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds per game for 32.3 DraftKings points in his 78 regular season contests.
Fast Break
Center is packed with excellent options led by Jokic and Giannis, but Karl-Anthony Towns is also a great option to consider. He helped the Knicks push to the finish line of the regular season even without some other key pieces at times. In each of his last five games, he had 40+ DraftKings points, including that matchup with Duren when he had 45 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes. He also had over 60 DraftKings points in one of those five games, showing his high ceiling.
Obi Toppin is a good value play at center and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus under $5,000 at the position. He showed off a very high ceiling in a few starts over the last month, but he was also very solid in his role off the bench. He scored double-digit points in nine of his last 13 games and showed he can pick up the team’s energy and some scoring slack if needed when he comes off the bench.
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Pictured: Bam Adebayo
Photo Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
