Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Jrue Holiday was exceptional for the Bucks down the stretch in Game 5. He drilled a massive 3-pointer to tie the game offensively and provided two of the biggest defensive plays of the season. Overall, he finished with a playoff-high 53.0 DraftKings points over 40.8 minutes.
Holiday should continue to thrive in the absence of Khris Middleton. He has seen the largest usage bump on the team with Middleton off the floor this season, and Holiday still has room for improvement as a scorer. He’s shot just 34.5% from the field in this series after shooting better than 50% from the field during the regular season. Holiday is simply too cheap at $7,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Tyus Jones has been priced up across the industry, but he’s still underpriced as the Grizzlies’ starting point guard. He racked up 37.0 DraftKings points in his first start of the postseason, and he followed that up with 46.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He also played just 24.4 minutes in his last game since the Grizzlies won by 39 points. Overall, Jones has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play closer to 40 minutes if Friday’s game is more competitive. That makes him a very tough fade.
Robert Williams has missed the past two games for the Celtics, and Derrick White has been one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s played at least 32.1 minutes in both contests, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. Williams is currently questionable for Game 6, so make sure to monitor the injury report heading into lineup lock. If he’s out once again, White can be deployed with confidence.
Steph Curry was limited to just 25 minutes in an embarrassing performance in Game 5, and he finished with just 21.6 FanDuel points. That said, he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his three previous outings, and his $9,400 price tag on FanDuel is very reasonable. He’s just $400 more expensive than Holiday, and he undoubtedly has the higher ceiling.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
The top shooting guard values on this slate are found on FanDuel, headlined by Klay Thompson. He’s priced at just $6,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. Thompson unsurprisingly posted a negative Plus/Minus in the Warriors’ Game 5 debacle, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his previous seven games. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a very reasonable option on this slate.
Dillon Brooks is another excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s been asked to take more scoring responsibilities in the absence of Ja Morant, and while he’s shot just 10-32 over his past two games, he’s still managed to return value in both contests. With some better shooting numbers on Friday, he has the potential to be one of the strongest plays of the day.
Jordan Poole also stands out for the Warriors on FanDuel. His $6,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he continues to play significant minutes off the bench. His per-minute production has decreased with Curry back in the lineup, but he’s still averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough for him to return value.
Jaylen Brown is one of the few shooting guards providing more value on DraftKings. His $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he leads the position with nine Pro Trends. He’s scored at least 47.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he could see a few additional minutes with the Celtics facing elimination. His ownership should also be reasonable.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Jayson Tatum has left a bit to be desired with his play vs. the Bucks. His fantasy production has been solid – he’s scored at least 52.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games – but he’s shot just 37-92 over that time frame (40.2%). That gives him some room for improvement moving forward.
The big downside with Tatum is his price tag. He’s priced as the second-most expensive player on this slate, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis clearly has more upside than Tatum, whose ceiling projection is closer to Curry’s and Holiday’s in our NBA Models. Tatum is a far better value on DraftKings, where his $9,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Pat Connaughton’s price tag has increased recently, but he’s still worth some consideration on Friday. He’s played at least 30.3 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this season. He managed just 19.25 DraftKings points in his last game, but he scored at least 24.0 DraftKings points in each of his previous two.
Desmond Bane finally snapped out of his funk in his last game. He played just 24.2 minutes in the blowout win, but he scored 21 points on 50% shooting. Overall, he finished with 28.2 FanDuel points, representing a sizable increase in per-minute production. He’s been a strong producer all year – he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute – so he has sizable upside at his current price tag.
Like the rest of the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins was a disaster in their last game. He finished with just 8.25 DraftKings points over 19.4 minutes, snapping a streak of four-straight games with a positive Plus/Minus. He’s a solid bounce-back target in Game 6.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
There’s not much left to say about Giannis Antetokounmpo at this point. He’s the best player in the league – it’s not even debatable at this point – and he has thrived in a brutal matchup vs. the Celtics. He’s scored at least 61.25 DraftKings points in four of five games, and he’s posted an average usage rate of 41.9%. That’s a significant increase for Giannis, who was already an elite per-minute producer. It’s hard to fade him at this point unless you think this game is a blowout. Given the 1.5-point spread, that’s an unlikely scenario.
Otto Porter played just 12.3 minutes in the Warriors’ last game, and he’s currently questionable for Game 6. As long as he’s able to suit up, he should be a nice source of value at just $4,200 on DraftKings. He’s played around 24 minutes per game since the injury to Gary Payton II, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season.
If Porter is ruled out, it would open the door for talented rookie Jonathan Kuminga. He’s started the past three games for the Warriors, but most of his minutes have come in garbage time. If Porter joins Payton on the sideline, Kuminga would likely be the biggest beneficiary.
Bobby Portis was absolutely massive for the Bucks in Game 5. He racked up 14 points and 15 rebounds, including an offensive rebound and putback to give the Bucks the lead late in the fourth quarter. Portis ultimately finished with 39.25 DraftKings points despite shooting just 4-14 from the field. He’s likely due for some regression on the glass, but he could make up for it with better marks as a scorer.
Al Horford came crashing back to reality in Game 5. He had scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in each of his previous three games, but he finished with just 34.5 in his last outing. That’s not terrible for his salary, but it still resulted in a negative Plus/Minus. He’s played all the minutes he can handle during the postseason, which is a bit concerning at nearly 36-years-old. He still has some appeal at this price tag, but it would not shock me if we’ve already seen the best from him.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of my favorite plays of the day at just $7,000 on DraftKings. He’s seen one of the largest usage bumps with Morant off the floor this season, and his 30.8% usage rate in that situation ranks first on the Grizzlies. He’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, despite playing just 25.2 minutes in his last outing. Overall, JJJ has increased his production to 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, giving him an immense ceiling at his current price tag.
Steven Adams drew another start in the Grizzlies’ last game, and he finished with 27.75 DraftKings points over 21.8 minutes. He’s provided elite value in each of his past two games, and he remains massively underpriced at just $4,500 on DraftKings. He’s a no-brainer selection.
Draymond Green has yet to have a true Draymond-like performance vs. the Grizzlies. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,800 on FanDuel, and he has plenty of appeal at that number. His 76% Bargain Rating is the top mark at the position.