NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Friday, Feb. 24): Evan Mobley is Breaking Out

Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The big news on Friday’s slate involves the Bucks. They’re currently just 1.0 game behind the Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, but they could be without Giannis Antetokounmpo for a few games. He will almost certainly miss Friday’s matchup vs. the Heat due to a right wrist sprain.

Antetokounmpo’s absence is obviously going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster. Jrue Holiday figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.1% with Giannis off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. In seven full games without Giannis, Holiday has averaged 44.89 DraftKings points.

Holiday has been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but he remains very reasonable at $8,000 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, while his 11 Pro Trends rank second at the position.

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Value

Mike Conley has stepped right in as the Timberwolves’ starting point guard after being acquired from the Jazz. He’s played at least 32.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Conley hasn’t been quite as impactful this season as he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged a strong 0.93 DraftKings points per minute.

Conley and the Timberwolves also draw one of the best matchups of the day. They’re taking on the Hornets, who rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. The total on this game sits at 241.0 points, while the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 123.5 ranks first on the slate.

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Fast Break

The Warriors will be on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means the team could be without Klay Thompson. Even if Thompson plays, the team will remain without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins. That leaves plenty of work for Jordan Poole. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.1% with Curry and Wiggins off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. That gives him plenty of appeal in a potential smash spot vs. the Rockets.

LaMelo Ball has been a phenomenal source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.09 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.85, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. Ball also remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards has struggled recently, failing to return value in six of his past eight games on DraftKings. However, he did snap out of his funk with 51.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s in a great spot to build upon that production vs. the Hornets, and his salary has also come back to reality. He’s down to $9,100 on DraftKings, and Edwards has averaged 46.88 DraftKings points with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool). Ultimately, this is an excellent spot to buy low on a very talented player.

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Value

The Rockets remain extremely shorthanded coming out of the All-Star break. Both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have already been ruled out, while Eric Gordon is now plying his trade in Los Angeles. That opens up a ton of playing time in the backcourt for Friday’s matchup vs. the Warriors.

Josh Christopher is currently projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models at a very reasonable $3,300 price tag. He has historically been a solid contributor when given the opportunity to play, and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His matchup vs. the Warriors also comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59, making him an appealing punt play.

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Fast Break

I’m not sure when Josh Okogie turned into a good basketball player, but the Suns have to be delighted with what he’s given them recently. He’s played a vital role over their past four games, scoring at least 31.5 DraftKings points in each. He’s played at least 35.3 minutes in three straight contests, and he should be locked into another sizable role with Kevin Durant and Landry Shamet sidelined.

Jevon Carter is another potential option in the Bucks’ backcourt, and he’s particularly useful on FanDuel. His $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s projected for approximately 27 minutes vs. the Heat. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so that should be more than enough for him to pay off his minimal price tag.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

As usual, small forward is the weakest position on Friday’s slate. Edwards is projected for approximately seven more fantasy points than every other option on DraftKings, so locking him in is certainly a viable strategy.

However, Kyle Kuzma would become a very appealing target if Bradley Beal is unable to suit up. He’s currently listed as questionable with a knee injury, while Will Barton was recently waived. Kuzma has increased his usage rate to 30.8% with Beal, Barton, and Rui Hachimura off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.

Kuzma has also been priced down to $7,800 on DraftKings, representing a decrease of -$1,000 over the past month. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.46 with a comparable salary this season, so he has some buy-low appeal.

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Value

Karl-Anthony Towns remains injured for the Timberwolves, so Kyle Anderson should continue to be a big part of their rotation. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Anderson has increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His price tag has also come down across the industry, so he stands out as one of the best per-dollar options on the entire slate.

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Fast Break

Tari Eason is another potential option for the shorthanded Rockets, particularly on DraftKings. His $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Eason has a very fantasy-friendly skill set. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value. He’s projected for 21 minutes vs. the Warriors, giving him a bit of upside at his current price tag.

Jonathan Kuminga has played a slightly larger role for the Warriors of late, and that should continue Friday with Wiggins still out for personal reasons. Kuminga hasn’t been quite as good this season on a per-minute basis, but his average of 0.83 FanDuel points per minute is still reasonable. He’s expected to play around 27 minutes vs. the Rockets, and his FanDuel salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Evan Mobley had a quiet start to his sophomore season. The team acquired Donovan Mitchell in the offseason, and Mobley struggled to find his offense with an additional scorer in the lineup. He posted a usage rate of 18.7% over the first three months of the season, and he averaged just 14.5 points per game.

Mobley started to turn things around in January, but he has really picked things up in February. He’s increased his usage rate to 24.7% over his past nine games, and he’s averaged 20.0 points and 9.2 rebounds in those contests. Overall, he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Mobley came out of the All-Star break strong, posting 48.25 DraftKings points Thursday vs. the Nuggets. His salary has yet to reflect his increased production, and he draws a much friendlier matchup Friday vs. the Hawks. They’ve allowed the fifth-most points in the paint per game this season, while they rank just 24th in team rebound rate.

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Value

Bobby Portis has been removed from the Bucks’ injury report, so he should be in the lineup for the first time in more than a month. He will likely be limited in his return to action, but he’s hard to ignore with Antetokounmpo doubtful. He’s increased his production to 1.18 FanDuel points per minute with Giannis off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 33.26 FanDuel points in 11 games with Giannis out of the lineup. Portis is priced at just $6,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, so he’s definitely viable in his first game back.

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Fast Break

The Rockets have eased Jae’Sean Tate into action this season, but they’ve started to ramp up his workload. He’s started each of their past three games, and he’s played at least 24.3 minutes in three of his past four. He’s projected for more than 26 minutes on Friday, so it’s possible he takes another step forward following the All-Star break. Tate has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 with a comparable salary on FanDuel, so he’s another potential option for the shorthanded Houston squad.

Jaden McDaniels has played at least 31.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s responded with at least 27.0 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should continue to provide some value with that much playing time. He’s a particularly strong option on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Alperen Sengun showed a glimpse of his upside earlier this season. He had a stretch of 10 straight games with a positive Plus/Minus, including at least 54.0 DraftKings points in four of five. The supremely talented young big man has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should serve as one of the team’s offensive focal points with Green and KPJ sidelined.

He hasn’t played a ton of minutes this season with Green, KPJ, and Gordon off the floor, but he’s increased his usage rate by +5.0% in that scenario. Sengun has also displayed plenty of upside as a distributor, so he’s a triple-double threat Friday vs. the Warriors. His price tag has dipped to $7,500 after peaking at $9,100, so this seems like an excellent buy-low opportunity.

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Value

Mark Williams has been extremely impressive as a rookie, averaging 1.24 FanDuel points per minute in limited playing time. Now that Mason Plumlee has been traded to the Clippers, Williams has had a chance to play a few more minutes for the Hornets. He’s played at least 30.8 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 31.4 FanDuel points in each contest.

Williams has gotten more expensive across the industry, but he remains underpriced at $5,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he should have plenty of opportunities in an up-tempo matchup vs. the Timberwolves.

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Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic is almost always underpriced on FanDuel, and he very rarely commands much ownership when the team is at full strength. Friday shouldn’t be an exception. His $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends. Vucevic has also increased his production to 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.17 over his past 10 games.

Rudy Gobert is off the Timberwolves’ injury report after being questionable for most of the past month. He’s also turned in two of his best performances of the year alongside his old Jazz teammate Conley. He’s coming off 48.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s in a great spot to duplicate that production vs. the Hornets. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and Gobert represents a nice value at $7,200 on DraftKings.