Friday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET with a trio of Game 3’s in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Brunson hasn’t shown any signs of rust after resting toward the end of the regular season for the Knicks. He had 27 points in just 29 minutes in Game 1, but he ramped up to 36 minutes in Game 2. He only had 20 points, but his non-scoring numbers were better, and his four steals and six assists propelled him to 42.75 DraftKings points and 45 FanDuel points. Duel points. His Game 1 usage of 39.3% shows he can carry the team as the focus of the offense and gives him a high ceiling in Game 3.
Brunson produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute in his first season with the Knicks. He has been even sharper recently, producing 1.26 DraftKings points and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over his nine most recent contests.
He has an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he matches 10 Pro Trends. He also matches nine Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
At point guard on FanDuel, the only player with a Projected Plus/Minus of over 1.3 is Mike Conley, who has a Projected Plus/Minus of 5.01. The wide margin shows how great of a value he represents at the position. Only Bruce Brown has a higher Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings.
Conley had 14 points, seven assists, 25.25 DraftKings, and 24.7 FanDuel points while playing 38 minutes in Game 2. In the postseason, the Timberwolves seem to be ready to let the veteran guard take on an expanded workload. While there are definitely options with a higher ceiling, Conley should have a very good floor for a player priced at his salary and is projected for 16.9% usage and 36 minutes in Game 3.
Fast Break
The point guard pool is extremely deep, thanks to the two star guards for the Hawks and Cavs. Trae Young hasn’t been great, partly due to the defense of Marcus Smart, but Dejounte Murray has been very good. Young is a proven playoff performer, and it does feel like, at some point in this series, he will have a massive game in him. He’s less reliable than Brunson or even Murray, but his ceiling is undeniable.
Darius Garland had a huge bounce-back game in Game 2 after a disappointing Game 1. He’s a little tricky to trust due to a potential takeover by Donovan Mitchell (discussed more below).
The Celtics have gotten solid work from Smart, but it has been Derrick White and NBA Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon who have excelled from a fantasy perspective. We’ll discuss White more below but don’t overlook Brogdon, who stepped up a balanced 13 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists for 37.75 DraftKings points and 38.4 FanDuel points in Game 2.
In addition to all the great Eastern Conference options and Conley, Jamal Murray reminded everyone of his playoff pedigree with a pair of monster games in the Western Conference playoffs. With the series headed to Minnesota, he may be due for a little bit of regression, but his production of 1.47 DraftKings points and 1.4 FanDuel points per minute has been impressive.
He brings a high ceiling but doesn’t come with quite the reliability of Brunson as the top option.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Of all the options in the backcourt, the highest ceiling projection on the slate belongs to Donovan Mitchell. Spida had big games in each of the first two games of the series. In Game 1, he had 38 points and eight assists on a 35.9% usage rate in 44 minutes. In Game 2, he took on more of a facilitator role with only a 17.6% usage rate but finished 13 assists to go with his 17 points for a strong double-double.
With the series tied and the Knicks crowd into the game, Mitchell will likely take on more of a scoring role once again. He shredded the Knicks at the end of the regular season, too, and has made it a personal mission to eliminate the team he almost joined this past offseason.
Mitchell has produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute in the first two games of the playoffs. With a 33% usage projection and 40 projected minutes, he has the potential to be even better on Friday night.
Mitchell has an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and an 86% Leverage rating since he is projected for low ownership on FanDuel. If you’re playing on DraftKings, he makes sense because he’s affordable, while on FanDuel, people are passing on him because he costs more, which makes him a great spot to pay up for some leverage to differentiate your lineup.
Value
The Nuggets’ role players all stepped up in their first two victories at home against the Timberwolves. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope brings the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, where he’s just $4,200. He has the second-highest at the position on FanDuel, only because his teammate Bruce Brown is eligible at shooting guard.
He played 31 minutes and had 15 points in Game 1 and followed that up with another productive game in 39 minutes in Game 2. Since he’s carrying such a big workload and can contribute in different categories, he is a nice bargain option again in Game 3. Only Murray has logged more time on the court for Denver than KCP.
He scored double-digit points in each of his three games against the Wolves in the regular season and usually chips in good defensive numbers as well.
Fast Break
The Celtics got a monster game from Derrick White in Game 2, but he has been priced way up after exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his past five games. If you can fit him in your roster construction, he brings good upside, but he’s a little spendy since his role isn’t consistent from game to game.
There’s a lot of upside potential in Immanuel Quickley at his salary, but his minutes have been drastically reduced in the postseason with Brunson and RJ Barrett getting most of the work. If he gets more time due to game script or rotation in Game 3, he could end up being a massive value.
For Atlanta, Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a great value lately, producing above salary-based expectations in four of his five most recent games. He is one of the Hawks’ players that needs to step up if the Hawks want to climb back into the series, starting with a win on Friday.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The best news for the Timberwolves coming out of Game 2 was that Anthony Edwards looked like he was back in form after struggling in the Play-In Tournament and in Game 1 of the series. Edwards was held under 20 points in three straight games before getting his groove back on Wednesday. As you can see in the Game Flow below from Game 2, he started strong and led a big charge in the third quarter in a strong overall performance.
Edwards finished with 41 points, 62 DraftKings points, and 63.4 FanDuel points in that contest, but the Timberwolves couldn’t quite even the series.
His usage has been over 30% on a regular basis, and now that he has his postseason legs under him, I expect him to be ready to resume his breakout season with a strong postseason. Throughout the season, he was significantly better at home, so coming back to Target Center should give him even more momentum Friday.
Value
The Nuggets have used Bruce Brown in a wide variety of roles this season, and the durable contributor has continued to be critical to their success in the postseason. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he brings unique eligibility at both point guard and small forward. On FanDuel, he’s a shooting guard and small forward and brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
In the two games in this series, he has played a total of 54 minutes, producing 0.77 DraftKings points and 0.79 FanDuel points per minute.
He has such a wide range of ways he can get involved for Denver that he brings a high floor. In Game 1, he scored 14 points, and in Game 2, he had five assists. Coach Mike Malone has shown lots of confidence to turn to him in multiple situations, and his versatility and productivity at such a low salary make him a great option on both FanDuel and DraftKings in Game 3.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown is hard to pass up after strong showings in Game 1 and Game 2, but he has a slightly lower ceiling than Edwards, and his role is less consistent since he often makes way for Jayson Tatum. The emergence of White and Brogdon has also lifted the load off him a bit, which is great for team balance but makes his fantasy potential hit or miss.
Josh Hart played through an ankle sprain in Game 2 against the Cavs, but he was much less effective coming off the bench. He went off in Game 1 with a double-double, and his performance will be key to the outcome of the series. If you think the Knicks come back and win Game 3, Hart will need to be closer to his Game 1 production than his Game 2 production.
With Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert all getting their busy workloads, Kyle Anderson has been more of an afterthought. While he still contributes in other ways, his salary is a little elevated for the workload he’s projected to get on Friday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Tatum has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate and should be set for another big game against Atlanta as the series shifts for Game 3. He had a double-double with at least 25 points in each of the first two games of the series, producing 1.27 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute.
Aside from a quiet second half to Game 1, Tatum has dominated and seemed to be able to get whatever he wants against the Hawks. The last time the Celtics visited Atlanta, Tatum went off for 34 points, 15 rebounds, and six assists in Boston’s nine-point victory.
Tatum has an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate. Even though he costs almost $10K, he is projected to be a good value.
The Celtics do have more options on offense right now, but Tatum is still the clear No. 1 option, and he looks intent on carrying his team on a long playoff run. After being pushed to play too many games last season, Boston will look to wrap up their early-round series quickly and can take another step in that direction by going up 3-0 Friday.
Value
After a down game in Game 1 despite playing 30 minutes, De’Andre Hunter bounced back in Game 2 with a double-double of 18 points and 12 rebounds for 38 DraftKings points and 32.9 FanDuel points. He’s an especially good deal on DraftKings, where he is only $4,600.
Hunter and the Hawks actually have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, and their matchup with the C’s has the highest over/under of the three games. Young and Murray will need some scoring from their auxiliary options, and Hunter is one of the better places for them to find that production.
He seems to have held off Saddiq Bey and has played the third-most minutes for the Hawks in the playoffs behind only the two superstar guards. In his 67 minutes, he has produced 0.84 DraftKings points and 0.78 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
Julius Randle hasn’t been great to this point in the playoffs, but he offers elite leverage if he’s able to bounce back in Game 3. He could be buoyed by the return to Madison Square Garden and brings a high ceiling despite the tough matchup against the excellent Cavs’ frontcourt defense.
For Denver, Aaron Gordon had a nice double-double in Game 2 but remains a fairly low-volume option, with the rest of the Nuggets rotation offering higher ceilings or better returns on investment. Michael Porter Jr. could also go off for a big game but hasn’t been able to get rolling with Murray and Nikola Jokic doing most of the heavy lifting.
Karl-Anthony Towns has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate at power forward, but he has fallen well below salary-based expectations in each of the first two games of the series. KAT definitely still has upside, but I think this is Ant’s team and his year to lead them in the playoffs.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
No surprises here–the highest ceiling projection on the whole slate belongs to Nikola Jokic. Jokic was limited by foul trouble in Game 1 and fell just short of a triple-double with 27 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists in Game 2. He actually seems due for some positive regression since he hasn’t reached 50 fantasy points in either game in this series.
Jokic produced 59.1 DraftKings points and 55.7 FanDuel points per game during the regular season at the rate of 1.64 DraftKings points and 1.65 FanDuel points per minute.
Despite his slightly lower production in Games 1 and 2, he still has been doing everything needed to lead his team to two comfortable victories. He is dealing with a right wrist sprain, but as long as that isn’t a bigger deal than expected, he should be ready to post a huge number in Minnesota on Friday night.
Value
In our sims for Friday, Evan Mobley is in more optimal lineups on FanDuel than any other center or power forward on the slate, per our Perfect%. Mobley had 13 points and 13 boards in Game 2 and added two steals and two blocks. In Game 1, he played 38 minutes and had eight points and 11 boards.
Mobley also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards and centers on FanDuel and matches nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he also has both a solid floor projection and a good ceiling projection.
Fast Break
On DraftKings, the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate belongs to Onyeka Okongwu, who comes at a great deal at only $4,100. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games dating back to the regular season and had 24.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. He had eight points and nine rebounds in that performance, so a low-grade double-double is definitely within the realm of possible outcomes.
Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and John Collins are all solid midrange targets, but their workloads aren’t as consistent as Jokic’s, Towns’, or Mobley’s.
Jarrett Allen has also proven to be a reliable play in the middle, and he comes with a nice 69% bargain rating on DraftKings.
For Boston, Al Horford goes back to where his career began in Atlanta, but he doesn’t come with quite as high a ceiling as the options highlighted above.
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