The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson vs. Atlanta Hawks – $8,900 DraftKings
Despite being the fifth-most expensive point guard eligibility player available, Jalen Brunson leads the position in projected ceiling and ranks second on the entire slate. Priced under $9,000, Brunson looks like an incredible pay-up option in a positive matchup against the Hawks, who are third in the league in pace. The Knicks are 6.5-point home favorites implied for 121.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate.
Brunson has returned a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games and has the highest projected Plus/Minus among the expensive options. During that four-game stretch, he is averaging 34.8 points and 6.5 assists per game with one double-double while shooting 53.7% from the field with a 36.9% usage rate. Brunson is projected for the highest usage rate tonight and is an elite pay-up option in all formats.
Top Value: Ty Jerome vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,400 DraftKings
Arguably, the best pure punt play on the slate is the Cavaliers’ backup point guard, Ty Jerome. Since the calendar year changed, Jerome has been given more playing time and has taken advantage. He has returned a positive Plus/Minus in six consecutive games and is averaging 11.2 points and 22.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 59% from the field and 53.8% from behind the arc during that time.
At $3,400, Jerome is a fantastic way to get exposure to the Cavaliers without breaking the bank. This matchup against the Suns presents the best game environment on the slate, with a total of 236.5 points. The Cavaliers lead the league with a 35-6 record and are one of two teams with a double-digit Plus/Minus making it more likely Jerome continues to see valuable playing time. He is simply too cheap on this slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,100 DraftKings
Anthony Edwards is the perfect tournament option for this five-game slate. He is a boom-or-bust fantasy producer with two 65 DraftKings point games in his last four games, with his other two performances failing to record 45 DraftKings points. He has either had a +20 DraftKings Plus/Minus or a negative one. Which Edwards comes to play is a toss-up, but he does have the highest projected ceiling at this position.
This is an extreme pace-up spot for the Timberwolves. They rank 27th in pace, while their opponent, the Grizzlies, leads the league. That will feed right into how Edwards wants to play with his team-leading 3.8 transition possessions per game. Donte DiVincenzo is out, while Rudy Gobert is questionable with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Gobert’s status because that would open up more driving lanes for Edwards.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Boston Celtics – $4,700 DraftKings
Shooting guard Buddy Hield is projected to start and be an incredible value play with all of the Warriors’ injuries. Stephen Curry is questionable, while Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Kyle Anderson, and Brandin Podziemski are all out tonight. Hield has returned a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games and is projected for the fifth-highest on the slate. At $4,700, Hield should thrive in his role tonight.
The Warriors are double-digit home underdogs, which may increase if Curry is also unable to play. They have a difficult matchup against the Celtics, who rank fifth in defensive rating this season. Despite the tough spot, Hield will get so much playing time and field goal attempts that he will have plenty of time to pay off his cheap $4,700 salary. With guard and forward eligibility, Hield is easy to fit into all lineup builds.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Golden State Warriors – $10,000 DraftKings
The top two small forwards to target on this five-game slate both play for the Celtics. That would be Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The latter is $2,000 more expensive but is projected for nearly double-digit points more. Tatum continues to lead the Celtics in the main categories of points, rebounds and assists per game. He is nearly averaging a double-double with 27.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game.
The Warriors lack of size due to their injury situation is a big reason why Tatum is -105 on the DraftKings sportsbook to record a double-double tonight. Tatum is the second-most expensive option for this slate and has the third-highest projected ceiling. The Celtics are fully healthy, which will keep his ownership in check. There is enough value to pay up for Tatum in this favorable road matchup against the Warriors.
Top Value: Max Strus vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,800 DraftKings
Back to the Cavaliers’ value, we go with shooting guard and small forward eligible Max Strus. He has only played in 13 games this season but was a valuable player last season for the Cavaliers, averaging a career-high 12.2 points per game. Strus has shown glimpses of his ceiling but is more than capable of displaying a dud. Even at his $3,800 salary, it is recommended to play Strus in tournaments only. He has surpassed 20+ DraftKings points in six of his last nine games but has two games with under double-digit points.
Most of Strus’ fantasy production comes from his perimeter shooting. Over 83% of his field goal attempts have come from downtown this season, where he is shooting 37.1% from distance. The Suns have an average perimeter defense, so it is worth getting exposure to Strus, especially at his cheap price tag.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant at Cleveland Cavaliers – $9,500 DraftKings
Kevin Durant is coming off a 36-point game in a road victory over the Pistons by four points. Not only was Durant filling it up in that last game, but he stuffed the stat sheet with seven rebounds, five assists, three blocks, and two steals for 62.25 DraftKings points. This is a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers, but Evan Mobley and Jusuf Nurkic are out, while Bradley Beal is listed as questionable to play tonight.
With Nurkic and Beal off the floor this season, Durant has a +2.95% usage rate and a +2.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). Durant’s usage rate increases to a team-high 34.1% with a 62.1% true shooting percentage. Durant could easily have the highest-scoring fantasy game on this five-game slate and will not cost that much at his $9,500 salary. He is a great way to differentiate lineups tonight.
Top Value: Santi Aldama vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,900 DraftKings
Leading the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus is Grizzlies’ forward Santi Aldama. Priced under $5,000, Aldama has recorded back-to-back ceiling performances. Both games were against the Spurs, but Aldama averaged 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 41 DraftKings points per game while shooting 55.9% from the field and 40% from deep. He also posted a 27.8% usage rate in his 28.5 minutes per game.
The Timberwolves may be without Rudy Gobert who is questionable to play with an ankle injury. If he is out, they have no true shot-blockers, making this an even easier matchup for scoring in the paint. They are already allowing 43.6 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks 24th in the league. Aldama drew nearly 50% ownership on Friday night’s slate and will likely draw close to that total again tonight.

NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,700 DraftKings
Knicks newly acquired center Karl-Anthony Towns has been the best off-season pickup this season. He is averaging 25.4 points and a career-high 13.9 rebounds per game while shooting a remarkable 55% from the field and 44.9% from behind the arc. Over his last nine games played, Towns is averaging 28.9 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 57.6 DraftKings points per game. The only problem is he is currently questionable to play after missing the last two games with a thumb injury. If he plays, is the best option on the slate.
Towns has the highest projected ceiling on the slate and is priced under $10,000 in a favorable matchup against the Hawks frontcourt. In his two games against the Hawks this season, Towns is averaging 26.5 points, 17.5 rebounds, three assists, three blocks, two steals, and 64.4 DraftKings points per game.
Top Value: Jarrett Allen vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,600 DraftKings
With Evan Mobley unable to suit up tonight, that will provide a significant boost to Jarrett Allen. When Mobley is off the floor this season, Allen is averaging a +2.86 usage rate increase and a +4.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Allen is scoring 19.7 points per game without Mobley compared to 13.7 with him on the floor. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the center position with his $6,600 mid-range price tag.
The Suns are without their center Jusuf Nurkic, which decreases their defensive rating to 118.4 per game. They rank 20th in rebounding percentage, which makes this a great opportunity for Allen to record a double-double. Allen has not recorded a double-double since January 9th, when he rattled off one in five of seven games, but this is a chance to get back on track. Allen is a phenomenal value in all lineup builds.