Friday’s main slate on DraftKings features the first six games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: De’Aaron Fox vs. Detroit Pistons – $8,200
In Fox’s first start as a Spur without Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) last night, Fox stepped up and finished with 56.75 FPTS in a win over the Suns. The guard led San Antonio with a 28.8% usage rate and 37 minutes in the victory. Wembanyama is unfortunately out for the season, and Fox is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Wembanyama off the floor.
Tonight’s matchup with the Pistons is a downgrade from the Suns on Thursday, with Detroit ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, but this game still carries the third-highest total on the slate (232.5 points) and a tight 4.5-point spread. Fox is a sensational value in this situation that has a ceiling near 60 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,600
Paul is also an elite value play from the Wembanyama-less Spurs, and rostering Paul and Fox in the same lineup is a totally viable move tonight. Paul posted 40.25 DraftKings points across 31 minutes last night vs. the Suns, and he is now averaging 36.4 DraftKings PPG in the seven starts he has made without Wembanyama this season.
Paul’s usage rises a team-high 5.1 percentage points with Wembanyama off the floor, resulting in 1.2 DraftKings PPM for Paul, via the On/Off Tool. The veteran should score at least 30 DraftKings points tonight, and for the second day in a row, Paul is the No. 1 guard value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey Murphy at Dallas Mavericks – $8,400
Murphy continues to be underpriced for his current role as one of the Pelicans’ top options. The wing is generating 46.8 DraftKings PPG in his last eight starts while seeing a 24.1% usage rate and a team-high 37.1 minutes per game during this span. Included in this run is a 50-DraftKings point outing against the same Mavericks team he will face tonight.
Murphy is shooting 41.3% from beyond the arc this month, and due to injuries and new personnel, Dallas has been a mess defensively, ranking second-to-last in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This contest carries the second-highest total on the slate (236.5 points), and Murphy is a terrific high-end value in this setting.
Top Value: Cole Anthony vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,100
In the Magic’s first game following the All-Star break last night, they heavily relied on Anthony with Jalen Suggs (quad) still out. In 31.5 minutes, Anthony finished with 35.25 DraftKings points in a win over the Hawks. The guard finished in a tie for the highest plus/minus for Orlando in the victory, and with Suggs remaining sidelined Friday, Anthony should continue to see right around 30 minutes in this great spot vs. the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace.
The Magic rank dead last in pace, so this is a huge pace increase for them, and Anthony should easily outperform his salary in this up-tempo spot. For the last five occasions Anthony has logged at least 25 minutes, he is supplying 36.6 DraftKings PPG.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson at Dallas Mavericks – $8,500
Williamson went out with a bang in his last start before the All-Star break, erupting for 58.75 DraftKings points vs. the Kings. The forward has scored at least 43 DraftKings points in eight of his past 10 starts, despite seeing less than 30 minutes in all of these contests. Now, with nine days of rest in his favor due to the All-Star break, there is a chance that Williamson sees his workload increase to over 30 minutes tonight.
Nevertheless, Williamson is too cheap for his ceiling and is worth attacking in GPPs against this Mavericks team that is severely shorthanded up front. When Williamson faced this same Dallas club back on January 29th, he went off for 50 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Max Christie vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $5,400
Opposite of Williamson, Christie is an excellent bargain at this salary that is still too low for his new role with the Mavericks. Since coming over to Dallas in the Luka Doncic trade, Christie has been very efficient with over 30 DraftKings points in every game. His impressive play forced Jason Kidd to move Christie into the Mavericks’ starting lineup two games ago, and Christie posted 40.25 DraftKings points across 38 minutes vs. the Heat in his most recent game, which is his best output in a Dallas uniform.
With the Mavericks, Christie is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 20% usage rate while shooting an outstanding 45.5% on three pointers. Going against this Pelicans defense that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and is allowing the fourth-most made three-pointers in the NBA, Christie is the best way to attack this Dallas team that carries the second-highest implied team total on the slate (122 points).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,300
After an ugly rough patch, Banchero has regained his form. The forward exploded for 57.5 DraftKings points in last night’s win over the Hawks, marking his third straight effort of at least 46 DraftKings points. Banchero is leading the Magic with a 33% usage rate this season, and he is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
As we saw last night when Banchero faced a Hawks team that ranks second in pace, he has huge upside when playing at a faster tempo. Banchero will be playing at an even faster pace tonight against the Grizzlies, who lead the league in pace, and he is one of the best lucrative options on the board in this spot.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,400
Johnson is a steal at this low salary with Wembanyama sidelined. After scoring 24 DraftKings points in 25 minutes off the bench last night vs. the Suns, Johnson is now averaging 29 DraftKings PPG in the seven games Wembanyama has missed this season. With the big man off the floor, Johnson’s usage increases 2.7 percentage points to 23.7%, and he provides 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
On his home floor tonight, where Johnson has been 6.6 DraftKings PPG better than on the road this season, Johnson should cruise past five times value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo at Toronto Raptors – $8,100
Adebayo should be fresh after not playing for nine days, and he has been a menace against the Raptors this season, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in all three of his matchups with the club. Jakob Poeltl (hip) was available for Toronto in all of these games, but now, the starting center will be out tonight, making the Raptors even weaker inside than usual. Toronto’s defensive rating has been 3.2 points worse with Poeltl off the floor this season, and Adebayo should continue to feast against the Raptors tonight.
With Jimmy Butler now no longer with the Heat for their last 10 games, Adebayo has led Miami with 45.3 DraftKings PPG while handling a 25.3% usage rate.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $4,300
After impressing the Magic coaching staff with 25.25 DraftKings points in their final game before the All-Star break, Carter was moved into Orlando’s starting lineup last night and recorded 29.75 DraftKings points across 32.2 minutes in the win over the Hawks. Given this success, Carter Jr. should continue to start tonight, and this is an even faster matchup than Atlanta with the league leaders in pace, the Grizzlies, in town.
Carter Jr. is generating 31.4 DraftKings PPG for the last eight times he has started and is a superb value play if he remains a starter as expected. In our ShotQuality projections, Carter Jr. is a top-five value on the slate.
