Monday features a one-game showdown slate featuring the Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
If you’re new to single-game formats, be sure to check out the following pieces by Matt LaMarca:
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Stephen Curry leads all players on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus.
Steph’s average Plus/Minus over his past six games is +10.01 on DraftKings Showdown slates, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in every one of them. He’s averaging a 32.5/6.2/5.8 line in six meetings against Portland this season and has dropped at least 36 points in all three games of this series.
As Bryan Mears points out in our Warriors-Blazers Game 4 preview, Golden State’s incessant double-teaming of Damian Lillard appears to be taking a toll on him. Lillard is averaging 20.3 points on 15-of-46 (32.3%) shooting in the series, and his 7.3 assists per game have not been enough to offset his poor shooting or ball handling (4.6 turnovers).
Still, Lillard’s salary ($10,200) has dropped $400 below Draymond Green ($10,600), which is enough to give Lillard nearly a 2-point edge over Green in Projected Plus/Minus and slot him in as a top-three value on the slate.
Klay Thompson’s average stat line in seven games against the Blazers this season is 22.3/4.6/3.2 in 37.0 minutes. The only player that our NBA Player Models project for a better Plus/Minus than Thompson is his fellow Splash Brother, Curry.
The Dubs have mostly been lauded for their defensive efforts against Lillard, but they’ve also done a good job bottling up CJ McCollum, who is shooting 49-of-133 (36.8%) across seven games against them this season.
McCollum is averaging 19.1 points per contest against Golden State with minimal impact in other categories (3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.1 blocks).That said, he still checks in fourth in Projected Plus/Minus behind the Splash Brothers and Lillard.
Jordan Bell is averaging a 6.7/3.0/2.0 line in 13.3 minutes in the series, which has equated to a +5.51 Plus/Minus and a 100% Consistency Rating. We have Bell projected for 15.8 minutes tonight, which is enough to earn him the top Projected Plus/Minus among players $4,500 and below on DraftKings.
After playing 19 minutes in Game 1, Seth Curry played 29 in Game 2 and 30 in Game 3. He didn’t register much box score production in the latter game (5 points and 3 rebounds), but he is still the second-best value on DraftKings among players $4,500 and under.
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Pictured above: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30)
Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports