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NBA DFS Breakdown (Sunday, May 1): Curry is too Cheap

Sunday features a two-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

Stephen Curry ($8,900) is back, as he played 38 and 37 minutes in the last two games against Denver. In three games against Memphis during the regular season, he went for 59.75, 63.5, and 62.5 DraftKings points. Memphis did have the sixth-best defensive rating, but they boosted the three-point prowess to point guards by 19.33% above the league average. Curry is too cheap.

Value

Tyus Jones ($4,000) will only play around 20 minutes, but he averages 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 19 DraftKings points in each of the last six games. Jones contributes a little something in every category but blocks. The ceiling is low, but the floor is relatively high.

Fast Break

Jrue Holiday ($8,200) averages 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. During the regular season, he went over 50 DraftKings points nine times with a high of 60.25. Against the Celtics, he put up 50.5, 39, 37.25, and 59.5 DraftKings points. With Khris Middleton off the court, he saw a usage bump of 4.5% to 28.4%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jaylen Brown ($7,900) and Jayson Tatum are the offensive engines of the Celtics. Brown has scored at least 20 points in four straight and will get around 18-to-20 field-goal attempts. The last time he faced the Bucks, he went for 58.5 DraftKings points and a triple-double, the second of his career.

Value

Gary Payton II ($3,400) averages 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He played 26 minutes last game and put up 30.8 DraftKings points. He received seven minutes in the prior game, so the range of outcomes is extremely wide. He should rack up fantasy goodies if he plays, but there is no way of knowing how much run coach Steve Kerr will give him. During the regular season against Memphis, Payton played nine, 34, 23, and 14 minutes. Shrug.

Fast Break

Desmond Bane ($6,900) averaged 30.4 minutes per game during the regular season. In the first round of the playoffs, he averaged 38 minutes with three games over 40. He has really stepped up his offensive game, scoring at least 20 points in four straight with a high of 34. He’s put up over 40 DraftKings points in three of the last four games.

Small Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum ($9,400) is averaging over 40 minutes in the playoffs with a usage rate in the 35% area. In three games against the Bucks in the regular season, Tatum went for 48.75, 62.25, and 50.25 DraftKings points. The home team has won every game in the regular season series between the two teams. If that trend is to remain, then Tatum will have a big game, as he’s such a vital part of the Celtics offense.

Value

Grant Williams ($3,800) is a low-usage, 3-and-D player, but he’s become an important part of the rotation due to his defensive versatility and ability to stretch the floor on offense. He played over 30 minutes in the last three games of the Brooklyn series and went for 26.8, 16.8, and 30 DraftKings points.

Fast Break

Grayson Allen ($4,800) had a fantastic three games against the Bulls, as he got plenty of open looks due to the defense collapsing on Giannis Antetokounmpo. He scored at least 20 points in the two of the three contests and went for 23.3, 38.5, and 36 DraftKings points. Things should be more difficult against Boston, who suppressed three-pointers to shooting guards by 13.87% below the league average. They also allowed the third-lowest three-point conversion rate at 33.9%.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) averages 1.72 DraftKings points per minute and has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. The Celtics limited him to 34.5 DraftKings points in the first regular season meeting, but Giannis then went for 63 and 55.75 in the next two. He does it all and he’s going to get his. It’s just a matter of how much.

Value

Otto Porter Jr. ($3,700) averages 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He hasn’t been particularly good lately, having exceeded 20 DraftKings points only once in the last nine games. That said, he does contribute a little in every category, and there was a brief stretch when he was grabbing double-digit rebounds and scoring over 10 points. He went for 32.8, 37.8, and 42.5 DraftKings points during that heater. He will more than likely score in the low teens, but there is a path for ceiling — albeit a low-probability one.

Fast Break

Bobby Portis ($6,400) was great filling in for Middleton during the Chicago series. He played 25, 33, and 32 minutes, contributing 41, 28.5, and 37.8 DraftKings points. This is a tough matchup for him, though, as the Celtics neutralized the FPPM to small forwards by 10.58% below the league average, fourth-best in the NBA.

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Center

Stud

Draymond Green ($6,600) will rarely light up the scoreboard, so ceiling games won’t come often. That said, he contributes enough in every category that the floor is relatively high. With this being the playoffs, the small-ball, death lineup with Green at center will be employed more often. As a result, he should see minutes in the mid-30s. Green averages 1.06 DraftKings points per minute.

Value

Brook Lopez ($5,300) played 24 minutes the last time he faced Boston and put up 26.3 DraftKings points. He shot 7-for-16 from the field while going 1-for-4 from downtown. Against centers, the Celtics have boosted opponents’ three-point prowess by 5.55% above the league average.

Fast Break

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,900) is going to see plenty of time at center with Steven Adams out due to health and safety protocols. He has all the tools to rack up fantasy goodies at both ends of the floor. His main bugaboo is fouling. He should be matched up against Draymond Green, so the risk of fouling out is mitigated.

Sunday features a two-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

Stephen Curry ($8,900) is back, as he played 38 and 37 minutes in the last two games against Denver. In three games against Memphis during the regular season, he went for 59.75, 63.5, and 62.5 DraftKings points. Memphis did have the sixth-best defensive rating, but they boosted the three-point prowess to point guards by 19.33% above the league average. Curry is too cheap.

Value

Tyus Jones ($4,000) will only play around 20 minutes, but he averages 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s scored at least 19 DraftKings points in each of the last six games. Jones contributes a little something in every category but blocks. The ceiling is low, but the floor is relatively high.

Fast Break

Jrue Holiday ($8,200) averages 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. During the regular season, he went over 50 DraftKings points nine times with a high of 60.25. Against the Celtics, he put up 50.5, 39, 37.25, and 59.5 DraftKings points. With Khris Middleton off the court, he saw a usage bump of 4.5% to 28.4%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Jaylen Brown ($7,900) and Jayson Tatum are the offensive engines of the Celtics. Brown has scored at least 20 points in four straight and will get around 18-to-20 field-goal attempts. The last time he faced the Bucks, he went for 58.5 DraftKings points and a triple-double, the second of his career.

Value

Gary Payton II ($3,400) averages 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He played 26 minutes last game and put up 30.8 DraftKings points. He received seven minutes in the prior game, so the range of outcomes is extremely wide. He should rack up fantasy goodies if he plays, but there is no way of knowing how much run coach Steve Kerr will give him. During the regular season against Memphis, Payton played nine, 34, 23, and 14 minutes. Shrug.

Fast Break

Desmond Bane ($6,900) averaged 30.4 minutes per game during the regular season. In the first round of the playoffs, he averaged 38 minutes with three games over 40. He has really stepped up his offensive game, scoring at least 20 points in four straight with a high of 34. He’s put up over 40 DraftKings points in three of the last four games.

Small Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum ($9,400) is averaging over 40 minutes in the playoffs with a usage rate in the 35% area. In three games against the Bucks in the regular season, Tatum went for 48.75, 62.25, and 50.25 DraftKings points. The home team has won every game in the regular season series between the two teams. If that trend is to remain, then Tatum will have a big game, as he’s such a vital part of the Celtics offense.

Value

Grant Williams ($3,800) is a low-usage, 3-and-D player, but he’s become an important part of the rotation due to his defensive versatility and ability to stretch the floor on offense. He played over 30 minutes in the last three games of the Brooklyn series and went for 26.8, 16.8, and 30 DraftKings points.

Fast Break

Grayson Allen ($4,800) had a fantastic three games against the Bulls, as he got plenty of open looks due to the defense collapsing on Giannis Antetokounmpo. He scored at least 20 points in the two of the three contests and went for 23.3, 38.5, and 36 DraftKings points. Things should be more difficult against Boston, who suppressed three-pointers to shooting guards by 13.87% below the league average. They also allowed the third-lowest three-point conversion rate at 33.9%.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) averages 1.72 DraftKings points per minute and has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. The Celtics limited him to 34.5 DraftKings points in the first regular season meeting, but Giannis then went for 63 and 55.75 in the next two. He does it all and he’s going to get his. It’s just a matter of how much.

Value

Otto Porter Jr. ($3,700) averages 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He hasn’t been particularly good lately, having exceeded 20 DraftKings points only once in the last nine games. That said, he does contribute a little in every category, and there was a brief stretch when he was grabbing double-digit rebounds and scoring over 10 points. He went for 32.8, 37.8, and 42.5 DraftKings points during that heater. He will more than likely score in the low teens, but there is a path for ceiling — albeit a low-probability one.

Fast Break

Bobby Portis ($6,400) was great filling in for Middleton during the Chicago series. He played 25, 33, and 32 minutes, contributing 41, 28.5, and 37.8 DraftKings points. This is a tough matchup for him, though, as the Celtics neutralized the FPPM to small forwards by 10.58% below the league average, fourth-best in the NBA.

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Center

Stud

Draymond Green ($6,600) will rarely light up the scoreboard, so ceiling games won’t come often. That said, he contributes enough in every category that the floor is relatively high. With this being the playoffs, the small-ball, death lineup with Green at center will be employed more often. As a result, he should see minutes in the mid-30s. Green averages 1.06 DraftKings points per minute.

Value

Brook Lopez ($5,300) played 24 minutes the last time he faced Boston and put up 26.3 DraftKings points. He shot 7-for-16 from the field while going 1-for-4 from downtown. Against centers, the Celtics have boosted opponents’ three-point prowess by 5.55% above the league average.

Fast Break

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,900) is going to see plenty of time at center with Steven Adams out due to health and safety protocols. He has all the tools to rack up fantasy goodies at both ends of the floor. His main bugaboo is fouling. He should be matched up against Draymond Green, so the risk of fouling out is mitigated.