The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features a seven-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Kyrie Irving is playing in an up-tempo offense and playing against a Washington Wizards defense allowing a projected 1.91 more fantasy points per game to the point guard position than league average. There is an excellent group of high-priced point guards tonight, but Irving has proven to be worth his salary despite players such as triple-double machine Russell Westbrook having more curb appeal. Irving is averaging eight fewer FanDuel points per game but is also a $1,500 savings tonight.
Value
Despite leaving fantasy players wanting more, Ricky Rubio is the top point guard according to FantasyLabs’ Rating system. He has a more than suitable 82% Consistency Rating and leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points Per Salary and is tied for the second most Pro Trends among point guards.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray will see most of the point guard work for San Antonio tonight with Derrick White sitting (toe, rest). In four games without White, Murray has scored at least 35 FanDuel points in three of four contests.
The Bulls are a mess and will be missing four players again today due to health and safety protocols. Coby White lines up as the second-ranked point guard on the slate and could see an uptick in production if Luka Doncic (quad) sits out against Chicago.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George is another excellent pivot off a high-priced Washington Wizard. Bradley Beal has been great so far with Westbrook but is $1,800 more expensive on FanDuel and only averaging about six more fantasy points per game than George. Enough DFS players will also be off George with the return of Kawhi Leonard; he has a Leverage Score of 87%.
Value
In a word, Andrew Wiggins has been frustrating. He has shown signs of life and continues to see his usage over 25%. The Warriors take on the Trail Blazers tonight in a game with the second-highest game total on the evening. The lack of scoring consistency beyond Steph Curry should be the reason Wiggins shines in a matchup like this, but know there is risk to his reward.
Fast Break
On the other end of the Wiggins trade, D’Angelo Russell is the only shooting guard priced below $7,500 on FanDuel with a projected point ceiling above 50. Russell plays against the Denver Nuggets, who allow a Projected Plus/Minus of 1.91 points more than average against the position.
Like White, Zach LaVine is going to get run on a bad and shorthanded Bulls team.
Dennis Schroder has a FanDuel points floor of 21 and has hit and exceeded his Projected Plus/Minus in five of six games.
Josh Richardson is a correlation play with Doncic if he does play against Chicago. The two represent their highest correlation scores with each other.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has come out the gates scorching hot and is still the third-highest-priced small forward on FanDuel (Durant is only PF eligible on DraftKings). The Nets have the highest implied team total on the slate, and a stack of Irving and Durant could be the high-priced ticket to seeing a higher return on investment.
Value
Tim Hardaway and Otto Porter will be seeing a lot of each other tonight and represent top 10 plays at the position. Porter is the highest-rated SF on the slate, while Hardaway should have no problem scoring against whatever Porter calls defense. Porter leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus this evening (12.09).
Fast Break
The Kelly Oubre experiment has been a bust so far for Golden State, but it is encouraging to see back-to-back games of double-digit scoring and providing consistency in rebounds and steals.
Joe Harris has three consecutive games with 30-plus FanDuel points and is only $4,500. The Nets-Wizards game has the highest projected game total of the night.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the only power forward above $6,300 on FanDuel expected to play. Because of his price tag, he represents the second-best leverage play at PF with a fair amount of DFS players fading the position tonight. He leads the position in FantasyLabs’ in Scoring, Ceiling, and Floor projections.
Value
Robert Covington had his best game of the season on New Year’s Day and will see a mix of Draymond Green and Eddie Paschall. Green should see around 20 minutes tonight, and Covington should have his way with Paschall.
Fast Break
Naz Reid is the uber-chalk tonight as Karl-Anthony Towns’ replacement. Take advantage of his value as a power forward despite playing the majority of his minutes at center. Until FanDuel pricing catches up with Reid’s uptick in minutes and usage, it is difficult to fade him.
Center
Stud
How do you not play Nikola Jokic? He is averaging a triple-double like Russell Westbrook but is $400 cheaper than the Wizards’ guard. Even if he does not record another triple-double, Jokic finds a way to clinch a double-double without much effort. The Nuggets have impressively run an offense through their center, and I am here for the big man love.
Value
Thomas Bryant does not offer much outside of scoring at the position, but one thing he does well is not be a negative when he does have the ball. He has one game with more than two turnovers, which is acceptable at his $5,800 salary. He should see plenty of opportunity against the Wizards as long as he stays out of foul trouble.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has only had one true dud game but with Enes Kanter sapping his value, it is tough to trust him in a decent matchup against Golden State’s rotation at center.
Deandre Ayton is my favorite pivot off Jokic. His main rebounding threat against the Clippers is Kawhi Leonard, and the combination of Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac has not been consistent at slowing opposing big men. Ayton has a top-five Leverage Score and Ceiling Projection on FanDuel.
Pictured above: Kyrie Irving
Credit: Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images
