The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry got off to a slow start this season, but he broke out in a big way on Sunday. He scored 62 points and was ridiculously efficient, shooting 58.1% from the field, 50.0% from 3-point range, and 94.7% from 3-point range. He also posted a usage rate of 49.5%, and he finished with a season-high 75.75 DraftKings points.
Curry is in another excellent spot tonight vs. the Kings. They’ve been a below-average defensive team to start the season, and Curry owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.05. Curry has also historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.91 with a comparable salary on DraftKings, so he’s simply too cheap at $9,300 (per the Trends tool).
Value
Michael Carter-Williams moved into the starting lineup in place of Evan Fournier in the Magic’s last contest, and he would likely draw another start on Monday if Fournier is ruled out again. He’s listed as questionable, but NBA guru Justin Phan currently gives him just a 40% shot of suiting up using the Labs Insiders tool.
Carter-Williams ultimately played 31.6 minutes in his last game, which is more than enough to make him viable at $3,700 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute to start the year, and he managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last game despite shooting just 2-11 from the field.
Fast Break
Tonight’s game between the Warriors and Kings is expected to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. It leads the slate with a total of 232.5 points, and the Kings are listed as small 2.5-point favorites. Curry will likely be the most popular target at PG from this contest, but De’Aaron Fox also deserves consideration. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games.
John Wall has looked like his old self this season. There were some questions about how he would fare after missing all of last season with an injury, but he’s averaged 48.0 DraftKings points through his first two games. He led the team with a usage rate of 35.0% with James Harden out of the lineup in their last game, so Wall would become an elite option if Harden is unable to suit up once again.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Cavaliers have the chance to be pretty shorthanded today. Kevin Love remains out for the foreseeable future, while Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro are both listed as questionable.
If both players are unable to suit up, Collin Sexton would become an excellent option at his current salary across the industry. He’s increased both his usage rate and his assist rate with all three players off the court this season, so he has the potential to improve upon his average of 0.99 FanDuel points per minute.
His 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel are also tied for the most at the shooting guard position.
Value
George Hill is simply too cheap at $4,900 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Hill has scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in three of his first four games. Overall, he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 25.6 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins will never live up to the lofty expectations that were placed upon him when entering the league, but he has the potential to have a solid fantasy season with the Warriors. They’re looking for a No. 2 option offensively behind Curry, and Wiggins has clearly been better than Kelly Oubre in that department. He’s rebounded nicely following a poor start to the season, scoring at least 36.4 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is no longer in Sacramento, which has opened the door for Buddy Hield to handle the majority of the SG minutes for the Kings. He’s averaged 36.7 minutes through his first six games, and he has been letting the ball fly recently. He’s finished with at least 17 shot attempts in back-to-back games, and he attempted 12 3-pointers in both contests. He hasn’t shot the ball particularly well in those games, but he has big upside if his shot is falling.
Small Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum has the potential to put together a massive fantasy season. He’s on pace to post new career-highs in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, and he’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute through his first seven games.
He stands out as an elite target tonight on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%, and he also leads the position with 10 Pro Trends.
Value
Oubre has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster offensively this season. He’s shooting just 32.0% from the field and 6.7% from 3-point range, both of which are drastically lower than his career averages.
With that in mind, the fact that he’s still managed to average 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season is actually pretty impressive. He’s going to start shooting the ball better eventually, and when he does, he has the potential to put up excellent fantasy numbers. He’s underpriced at $5,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Rostering Harrison Barnes in DFS is like eating vegetables: You never really want to do it but it’s generally good for you. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in five of his first six games, and he’s carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball at the moment. He’s currently projected for 36.7 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the position. His $5,600 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Tobias Harris has thrived for the 76ers this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.58 through his first six games. He’s averaged 1.28 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s in a great spot today vs. the Hornets. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.72 on FanDuel, as do his 12 Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Stud
What in the world do you do with Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight? He has been just as dominant as ever this season, averaging 1.67 FanDuel points per minute through his first six games. He’s coming off back-to-back performances of at least 64.6 FanDuel points, giving him arguably the highest ceiling on the slate. The Bucks also own an excellent matchup vs. the Pistons, resulting in a slate-high implied team total of 120.25.
That said, it is still extremely hard to trust Giannis on today’s slate. The Bucks are massive 15.5-point favorites, and head coach Mike Budenholzer is not shy about pulling Giannis early in blowouts. If the Bucks are able to grab a comfortable lead in this contest, Giannis could be limited to as few as 24 minutes. Giannis has historically struggled to return value in comparable situations, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.44 when favored by at least 14 points.
Overall, Giannis is the premier boom-or-bust option on today’s slate. He’ll likely command lower ownership than usual, so he has the potential to be a GPP-winner if this game is more competitive than expected.
Value
I will continue to roster Marvin Bagley at a reduced price tag. He’s had a rough start to the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.04 on FanDuel through his first four games, but he is simply too talented offensively to struggle forever. He’s capable of averaging well over 1.00 fantasy points per minute, so he’s too cheap at $4,800 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Julius Randle has done a lot of heavy lifting for the Knicks this season. They’ve dealt with a host of injuries in their backcourt, and Randle has had to operate as their primary playmaker as a result. He’s recorded at least seven assists in three of his past four games, and he’s even posted a triple-double during that stretch. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Maxi Kleber is a strong value option at his price tag across the industry. He’s played at least 27.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s projected for a similar workload on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some damage when he sees a solid chunk of playing time.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic never seems to get the respect he deserves in fantasy. He’s one of the top centers in the game, and he’s even added a 3-point shot to his repertoire this season. He’s scored at least 47.6 FanDuel points in two of his past three games and draws a solid matchup today vs. the Cavaliers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.79 on FanDuel, and his 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
Value
Clint Capela is the easy choice at center in cash games. His price is still down across the industry after starting the season on a minute restriction, but he’s coming off nearly 31 minutes in his last game. Capela has averaged 1.2 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s going to smash his current price tag if continues to play a comparable workload.
Fast Break
It could be a good day to go with two centers on DraftKings. Like Capela, Richaun Holmes seems way underpriced given his recent workload. He’s emerged as the clear top center option for the Kings, and he’s played at least 32.0 minutes in three straight games. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his $5,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Most of the best values at the center position are found on DraftKings, but Al Horford is an exception. His $5,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%, and he’s scored at least 27.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling for GPPs, but he’s a safe bet to return value at his current price tag.
