The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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The Mavericks are going to be shorthanded once again on today’s slate. Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jalen Brunson remain out due to health and safety protocols, while Maxi Kleber will be out for the next 10-to-14 days. It is possible that Kristaps Porzingis will suit up for the first time all season, but he will likely be limited even if he is active.
With that in mind, expect Luka Doncic to carry another massive workload. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past four games, and he’s posted an average usage rate of 39.7% over that time frame. He’s also in a decent spot vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.53 on DraftKings.
The 76ers are another team that will be playing shorthanded. Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle, and Vincent Poirier remain out due to health and safety protocols, while Seth Curry is out of the lineup after testing positive for COVID-19. Ben Simmons will also miss this game due to a knee injury. That doesn’t leave them with a ton of available bodies.
Tyrese Maxey is one player who should be asked to carry a larger workload. He was the driving force for their offense in their last game, scoring 39 points with seven rebounds and six assists over 43.7 minutes. He shouldn’t need to do as much offensively with Joel Embiid back in the lineup, but he’s still way too cheap at just $4,700 on DraftKings.
The Suns are in an elite spot today vs. the Wizards. Washington has played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and they also rank just 28th in defensive efficiency. The Suns’ implied team total of 118.0 is tied for tops on the slate.
That makes Chris Paul an interesting buy-low option. He’s been priced down to just $6,900 on FanDuel, and Paul has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.90 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Malcolm Brogdon has been fantastic this season, averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently projected for 38.2 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s an excellent combination from a fantasy perspective. Brogdon is also tied for the most Pro Trends at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bradley Beal is in an interesting spot today. He’s been priced up across the industry, and his matchup vs. the Suns is not particularly appealing. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.21 on DraftKings, which is one of the worst marks at the position.
Still, Beal has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.6% in each of his past two games, and he’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in four straight. He should also benefit from Russell Westbrook being out of the lineup. Beal has posted a usage rate of 39.4% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.58 DraftKings points per minute.
The Hawks have a deep rotation of win players, but Kevin Huerter has emerged as the preferred option at the moment. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past six games, and he’s played at least 31.3 minutes in each of his past three. He should continue to see a large workload with Bogdan Bogdanovic out of the lineup, which makes him an appealing option at $4,900 on FanDuel.
De’Anthony Melton still isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Grizzlies, but he’s capable of putting up fantasy points in a hurry. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced at just $3,800 on DraftKings.
Devin Booker is significantly cheaper than Beal across the industry, which makes him an interesting pivot for those paying up at shooting guard. He’s coming off 45.1 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he also has a much friendlier matchup than Beal on today’s slate.
Small forward is the weakest position to pay up for today. Only one player is priced above $7,800 on FanDuel, and none of the top options really stand out as strong options.
Gordon Hayward seems like your best bet if you want to pay up at the position. He’s averaged a respectable 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s logged plenty of minutes for the Hornets early in the year. He’s also coming off a down performance in his last outing, which has caused his salary to drop to just $7,600 on FanDuel. That’s a reasonable price tag.
Rui Hachimura is a SF on FanDuel and a PF on DraftKings, but he’s an excellent option regardless of where you play him. The Wizards are going to be very thin in the frontcourt after losing Thomas Bryant to a torn ACL, and Hachimura is one of the players who will be asked to pick up the slack. He’s been eased into the rotation this season, but the team has ramped up his activity over the past two games. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him too cheap at his current salary.
If you’re looking for a pure punt play on DraftKings, James Ennis could be your guy. He’s priced at the absolute minimum, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. He’s currently projected for 20.7 minutes in our NBA Models, which should give him a chance to return value on today’s slate.
Cam Reddish is another member of the Hawks who should benefit from the injury to Bogdanovic. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season, and there’s a chance he sees more minutes with Bogdanovic out of the lineup. Reddish has already been a solid value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.89 over his first nine games, and his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 69%.
It’s getting hard to ignore what Julius Randle has been doing for the Knicks this season. He’s carried a ridiculous workload in terms of minutes and opportunity. He’s logged at least 37 minutes in seven of his past eight games, and he’s on pace to shatter his previous career-high in terms of assist rate. Randle has always been an excellent scorer and rebounder, so his added upside as a distributor has taken his fantasy stock to new heights. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.19 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Randle is in a fantastic spot today vs. the Hornets. They’ve struggled against opposing big men this season, giving Randle an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.53 on FanDuel. He also leads all PFs with 13 Pro Trends, and players with a comparable number have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.79.
Mike Scott is another potential punt play on today’s slate. He’s priced at the minimum on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he should see a healthy handful of minutes for the shorthanded 76ers. He hasn’t been effective on a per-minute basis this season – he’s averaged just 0.58 DraftKings points per minute – but he has historically been much better in that department. He’s shot just 33.3% from the field and 26.3% from 3-point range through his first five games, so his per-minute production should improve with some positive shooting regression.
Domantas Sabonis continues to get the job done on a nightly basis. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his first nine games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 57.4 FanDuel points in his last contest. He has an elite matchup today vs. the Kings, who rank dead last in terms of points in the paint allowed per game.
P.J. Washington hasn’t seen the most consistent minutes this season, but he’s been very effective when on the court. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s played at least 36.5 minutes in two of his past three games. If he sees that much playing time again today, he’s going to be a massive value at just $6,300 on FanDuel.
Andre Drummond stands out as an elite value on DraftKings. His $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s in a solid spot vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.97.
Drummond should also continue to benefit from the Cavs’ current injury situation. Darius Garland and Kevin Love remain out of the lineup, while Collin Sexton is currently listed as questionable. Drummond has posted a usage rate of at least 33.6% with all three players out of the lineup recently, which gives him more upside than usual as a scorer.
Willie Cauley-Stein may lose a few minutes if Porzingis returns to the lineup, but his role should be safe with Kleber out. He’s currently projected for 25.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. That combination makes him too cheap at just $4,000.
Joel Embiid has the potential to carry a huge workload today. He’s only played 13 minutes this season with both Simmons and Harris off the court, but he’s posted a ridiculous usage rate of 55.5% over that stretch. His usage shouldn’t be that high over a full contest without both players, but he could realistically eclipse 40%. That gives him a monster ceiling. It’s pretty easy to pair Embiid with Doncic or any other stud you prefer given the number of value options on today’s slate.
Brook Lopez has been a solid value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, which coincides with a boost in playing time. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three of those games, and he’s going to continue to return value at $4,500 on FanDuel if he plays that much.