The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Luka Doncic was sensational in his last game, recording 25 points, 15 assists and 17 rebounds in a win vs. the Sacramento Kings. Only a select group of players have recorded a triple-double with at least 15 points, rebounds and assists, and Doncic was the first to accomplish that feat before his 21st birthday.
He’s in another tremendous spot today vs. the Blazers given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21 on FanDuel. Doncic also sees a big bump in value with Kristaps Porzingis out of the lineup. Doncic has increased his usage rate to 38.0% in 11 games without Porzingis this season.
He’s a very tough fade on FanDuel, where his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Derrick White is an interesting punt play vs. the Atlanta Hawks. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.41 over his past 10 games. That said, his price has actually decreased over that time frame.
He isn’t seeing an ideal amount of playing time, but he could see a few additional minutes today with Rudy Gay out of the lineup. Even if he doesn’t, White can do some damage in limiting playing time vs. the Hawks. They rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and White owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.16.
Collin Sexton has been an awesome source of value recently on FanDuel, posting a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his past 12 games. The only exception was a game vs. the Lakers, who have been one of the toughest matchups in fantasy this season.
He should find much less resistance today from the Grizzlies, who rank fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. Sexton owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.89 on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Malcolm Brogdon is still priced down across the industry after missing an extended period of time with an injury, which seems like a mistake. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both games since returning, and he’s played at least 30.7 minutes in each game. Fire him up with confidence in a strong matchup vs. the Timberwolves.
Jimmy Butler is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 25.25 DraftKings points over 34.7 minutes vs. the Spurs. That’s caused his salary to decrease from $8,600 to $7,800 on today’s slate, which makes him a prime buy-low target. It results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and Butler has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.50 with a comparable price tag this season (per the Trends tool).
His matchup vs. the Thunder isn’t great — he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.29 — but this is simply too good of a value to pass up. It’s been difficult to find values on DraftKings recently, so plug him into your lineup and move on.
Kevin Huerter is coming off a monster performance in his last outing, scoring 54.0 FanDuel points vs. the Suns. He’s been excellent over the past month in general, increasing his output to 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. He remains affordable at $5,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
DeMar DeRozan has quietly been one of the best assets in fantasy recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.40 over that time frame. There’s no reason to expect his production to decrease today vs. the Hawks, which makes him an elite target at $8,100.
The Timberwolves could be a strong source of value on today’s slate. They traded away Jeff Teague and Treveon Graham, and the newly-acquired Allen Crabbe is not ready to make his debut. Karl-Anthony Towns is also questionable, and his absence would leave the team pretty shorthanded.
Josh Okogie should see a bump in playing time today vs. the Pacers, which makes him an appealing punt play at $3,800. He’s currently projected for 28.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.27.
The Raptors are an interesting team on today’s slate. They have one of the best possible matchups vs. the Wizards, who rank fourth in pace and last in defensive efficiency. The Raps are currently implied for 120.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate. With that in mind, they’re a team to which you probably want some exposure.
Pascal Siakam stands out on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by $1,100 over the past month, which makes sense given his extended injury absence. He’s played fewer minutes since rejoining the rotation two games ago, but he was still able to score 37.8 FanDuel points in his last game. If he sees a few additional minutes today vs. the Wizards, he has massive upside at his current price tag. His ownership should also be modest.
Matisse Thybulle will always have appeal on FanDuel because of his ability to rack up stats on the defensive end. He recorded two steals and four blocks in his last game, which is a big reason why he scored 28.1 FanDuel points. He has a chance to play bigger minutes with Joel Embiid on the sidelines, and he remains reasonably priced at $4,100.
Sticking with the 76ers, Tobias Harris stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s coming off 53.5 FanDuel points in his last game, and he’s averaged 33.53 FanDuel points in 11 games without Embiid this season.
Jarrett Culver is another member of the Timberwolves who should benefit from their current roster situation. He could potentially start at PG, and he’s increased his production to 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Al Horford continues to be underpriced given the absence of Embiid. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.9 on FanDuel in 11 games without Embiid this season, and he’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Bulls. They rank just 28th in team rebound rate, and they’ve hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing big men. Horford owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 on FanDuel, which is one of the top marks at the position.
The Porzingis injury opens up some additional minutes for the Mavericks frontcourt, and Maxi Kleber is someone who could take advantage. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s in a dream spot vs. the Blazers given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.63. He’s a strong value at $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Kevin Love sat out the last game for the Cavaliers, but he’s expected to be back in action tonight. He’s been productive when on the court recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.05 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Cavaliers are also in the largest pace-up spot of the day, which further increases his appeal.
John Collins has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which ranks second at the position among today’s PFs. His playing time has kept his fantasy value down a bit over that time frame, but he has big upside vs. the Spurs if he sees a few additional minutes.
Hassan Whiteside has a tough matchup today vs. the Mavericks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.30 on DraftKings. That said, he’s tough to ignore at $8,400. It results in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and Whiteside has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.17 with a comparable salary this season. His average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month ranks second at the position, and he’s coming off 37 minutes in his last contest.
Jonas Valanciunas is the only center on today’s slate who has been more productive than Whiteside over the past month. His workload is much more modest — he’s currently projected for just 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models — but so is his price tag on FanDuel. He’s nearly $3,000 cheaper than Whiteside at just $6,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%. His matchup vs. the Cavaliers is also much friendlier, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10.
Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel are both questionable today, and Mike Muscala would become a very appealing value play if both are unable to suit up. Muscala has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and the Thunder wouldn’t have much depth in the frontcourt behind him.
Dwight Powell is another member of the Mavericks who could see a few additional minutes today with Porzingis out of the lineup. He’s been very productive over the past month, averaging 0.89 DraftKings points per minute, and his matchup vs. the Blazers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.04.
Photo credit: Glenn James-NBAE via Getty Images
Pictured above: Mavericks PG Luka Doncic