Let’s get to it.
Indiana Pacers (-11) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Totals: 107 – 96, O/U: 203
Though their 11-point spread is concerning for his overall run, there’s no denying Paul George as arguably the most valuable player in this slate. With an 86% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, George additionally includes an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52. With a projected floor 5.9 points greater than any other small forward, it seems better to pay the additional $1,100 for George rather than “settle” for Kawhi Leonard at the position.
Despite Philadelphia’s bevy of injuries, Ish Smith remains a cash play at DraftKings due to his Bargain Rating of 93%. In fact, his lower salary has allowed him to accumulate a Dud Percentage of 7% over the last month. Robert Covington should remain an option strictly at FanDuel where his lower salary includes a positive Opponent Plus/Minus — although minuscule, his Opponent Plus/Minus at DraftKings remains in the red due to his implied total being 3.27 points higher.
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls (-2.5)
Implied Totals: 101 – 103.5, O/U: 204.5
Expected to be without Taj Gibson yet again, exposure should only be focused towards Pau Gasol. Bobby Portis, for instance, started against Houston, but finished with only 10.1 minutes on the night. And, although an average of 45 DraftKings points over his last two games, Nikola Mirotic includes a horrid Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.63. Rather, with a 97% Bargain Rating at DraftKings (and a slate-high 15 Pro Trends), Gasol should be considered atop his position. Andre Drummond can confidently be slotted in the Utility alongside him as he includes the highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+6.09) at his position.
If searching for a cheaper option at small forward, look no further than Marcus Morris. Despite the fourth-highest projected floor at his position, Morris is still implied to score only 23.09 points — he’s exceeded salary-based expectations by +10.10 points over his last five games.
Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs (-11.5)
Implied Totals: 91.5 – 103, O/U: 194
Feel free to keep this one simple. Toronto, after all, is implied to score fewer than 92 points. In turn, only Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge warrant tournament consideration due to their Bargain Ratings of at least 95%. However, while Aldridge is a viable cash option — projected floor 10.9 points greater than the next power forward and all — Leonard should be honed more towards tournaments (given his reduced minutes). Despite playing only 22.1 minutes Wednesday night, note Leonard’s performance of 40 DraftKings points.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets (-9.5)
Implied Totals: 103.5 – 113, O/U: 216.5
Short DeMarcus Cousins, Rajon Rondo, and Omri Casspi tonight, Darren Collison is essentially mandatory no matter the format. With a Projected Plus/Minus of +9.2, I wouldn’t even care too much about his ownership rate (otherworldly) in tournaments; unique lineup construction is still plausible. Kosta Koufos, despite his underwhelming 22 minutes last night, warrants cash exposure at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 93%. The duo can additionally be stacked with Willie Cauley-Stein, whose Projected Plus/Minus of +11.1 leads tonight’s player pool.
Although he went 0-for-8 from the field Thursday night, Will Barton should still be considered an elite option at his position. His minutes, after all, have suddenly come around as he’s averaged 31.2 over his last four games. Note his advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.56. It also helps that the Nuggets are implied to score the most points of any team tonight.
Miami Heat at Portland Trailblazers (-5.5)
Implied Totals: 102 – 107.5, O/U: 210
At a power forward position lacking in elite options tonight, Ed Davis’ play as of late is a sigh of relief:
It’s admittedly not the best spot for him, but it bodes well that Portland is (somehow) favored by 5.5 points. Of course, if you believe Damian Lillard to be the reason for that line, limit his exposure to FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 95%. He should be an afterthought in cash given his poor Plus/Minus of -6.74 over the last four games (and 35% Dud Percentage).
Implied to score minimum at DraftKings, Gerald Green is certainly a cash play if Wade (technically questionable) is ruled out. Either way, the strongest option for Miami in that circumstance would be Goran Dragic, whose usage rate of 26.5% without Wade remains a team-high. Implied to score 2.89 fewer points at FanDuel, Dragic and Collison should be automatic if rostering two point guards.
Good luck!
