With 11 games on slate tonight, please don’t ask me to waste anymore brain power on this lede.
Let’s get to it.
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic (-7)
Implied Total: 95.8 – 102.8, O/U: 198
Although Nikola Vucevic has exceeded expectations by an average of +8.94 points over his last four games, one could argue that Elfrid Payton is the most valuable player for the Magic in tonight’s slate. For example, Payton logged only nine second-half minutes in their last game against the Hawks as Atlanta rushed out to a 25-point lead in the third. Still, with no Victor Oladipo available (a status that remains the same for tonight), Shabazz Napier played only 12 minutes behind Payton. Even as home favorites of seven points, Payton, who our models show with a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.1 points, should receive exponential run against Philadelphia and their horrendous Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 points above expectations allowed at the point.
7:38. That’s how many minutes Jahlil Okafor logged of a possible 34 following halftime of their double-overtime loss to the Knicks. Though Brett Brown rode a smaller lineup featuring Nerlens Noel at center and Isaiah Canaan at shooting guard in their comeback, Okafor needs be seriously considered tonight. Not only has he exceeded expectations by an average of 9.93 points in back-to-back games (Knicks matchup included), but the Magic allow +1.8 points above salary-based expectations to opposing centers. Consider Canaan – 29.5 and 24.75 DraftKings points in consecutive games — a salary-saver only if named starter.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards (-4.5)
Implied Total: 96.5 – 100.5, O/U: 197
Name a bigger letdown this season than Tyler Johnson’s performance against the Bucks. Even in finishing with 34 minutes under his belt, Johnson sat out most of the first half in foul trouble and in the end, undershot expectations by -11.18 points. Unfortunately, no one sealed the well overnight. Our models show Johnson with a Projected Plus/Minus of +2.1 points as he’s assumed to start for Udrih yet again. Just note his salary has increased $300 up from $5,100 this time around. If looking elsewhere in Miami, however, it should surprise no one to see Hassan Whiteside with a Projected Plus/Minus +1.7 points higher than the next closest at his position.
The Wizards couldn’t even muster a 5-on-5 walkthrough this morning. That’s how restricted they’ve become due to injuries. Randy Whittman even went to the combination of Marcin Gortat-Nene in their last game only to immediately pull the plug following three minutes of absolute hell. Instead, Jared Dudley remains the most underwhelming benefactor in Washington’s small-ball approach, forced to log 36.2 minutes without Otto Porter and Kris Humphries available. With Drew Gooden joining their bunch of reserves tonight, consider Dudley and Garrett Temple (each implied to score 20.79 points) punts guaranteed the work.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-12.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Implied Total: 104.8 – 92.3, O/U: 198
Though a blowout immediately comes to mind, these two fought well into the closing seconds of their last matchup prior to LeBron James hitting the go-ahead jumper with two seconds remaining. Brooklyn obviously won’t be able to target Kevin Love as efficiently as the Warriors did, but Brook Lopez leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends tonight. It should be noted that he finished with a line of 22-9-2 in their aforementioned last game against one another.
Speaking of Love, our models show him with the fourth-highest projected floor at his position. His usage and overall scoring are down since Kyrie Irving returned, dropping from 24.4 to 20.6 and 17 points per game to 12.7, but the Nets have allowed +1.3 points above salary-based expectations to opposing power forwards. Unfortunately, that’s nothing in comparison to how they’ve defended back courts. Since Donald Sloan has started, after all, no team has allowed more raw fantasy points to opposing point guards than Brooklyn.
Utah Jazz and New York Knicks (-2.5)
Implied Total: 92.3 – 94.8, O/U: 187
Exposure hinges on the availability of Kristaps Porzingis. Though he said he could’ve played in overtime against Philadelphia if called on, he remains questionable for tonight. Stock up on all the Melo if Porzingis is out – despite Utah’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.8 points allowed to small forwards, Anthony’s usage of 29.8 would assuredly only increase. Same goes for Derrick Williams (currently implied to score 18.95 points) if either Porzingis or Lance Thomas are officially out.
Although this game is slated with the lowest implied total of the evening, Rudy Gobert has forced his own consideration each and every night. In his last two games alone, Gobert has exceeded expectations by an average of +20.25 points (not a mistype), logging 30.4 and 43.4 minutes respectively. He still includes a Bargain Rating of 80% at DraftKings, and the Knicks have allowed averages of 22.5 points and 12.9 rebounds to opposing enters over their last five.
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors (-3)
Implied Total: 99.8 – 102.8, O/U: 202.5
Kyle Lowry has exceeded expectations by an average of +7.56 points over his last 10 games. He’s also tied atop the list of point guards with Pro Trends in tonight’s slate. Considering the Raptors are only favored by three points, it’s criminal not to at least look his way. Even in cash, his projected floor of 28.7 points is more than suitable as the Celtics have allowed +2.6 points above salary-based expectations to opposing point guards. If looking for cheap options in Toronto, note that Patrick Patterson has logged at least 29 minutes in three consecutive games. His projected floor of 7.0 points is certainly worrisome, but his implied total of 18.95 points is a score he’s exceeded in his last three performances.
Prior to Boston’s small-ball era, there was a point in time in which Amir Johnson could be trusted. Over his last three games, however, Johnson has logged greater than 20 minutes only once, failing to meet expectations by an average of -6.88 points over that span. Instead, Marcus Smart – logged over 30 minutes in four of his last five – has continued to share the floor with Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. With the Raptors allowing +1.2 points above expectations to off-ball guards (+1.9 at the point), all three warrant a hard look (especially in cash) tonight.
Golden State Warriors (-7) at Chicago Bulls
Implied Total: 111 – 104, O/U: 215
The Warriors defeated Chicago by 12 points earlier this season, but they led only by four points heading into the final quarter. With Golden State favored by a reasonable number, all bets are off in a game that Stephen Curry should be within reach at every second. And, as one of two games that have an implied total of 215 points, I’ll personally be looking to stack each matchup rather than spreading exposure throughout this slate.
That method, of course, begins and ends with Curry. Not that you need any explanation, but his salary has quietly fallen for the third consecutive game. Even at $10,600 and $10,500 in previous nights, note that Curry has exceeded his implied total by an average of +11.26 points over that time. He’s currently the highest-overall rated player in our Phan Model for a reason.
Though it’s not exactly the best matchup, Jimmy Butler has a Bargain Rating of 80% at DraftKings and leads his position with 13 Pro Trends. His usage is obviously higher without Rose, rising from 23.8 to 31.4 in those instances, but Butler’s Projected Plus/Minus of +4.4 is highest among off-ball guards. Pau Gasol is also fine as, despite his implied total of 37.81 points, his projected floor of 23.8 leads his position. Also, in a poor small forward pool (that’s already been complained about numerous times), there are admittedly worse options than Doug McDermott on this slate. Needing only score 13.43 points in order to return value, McDermott has scored at least 16.5 DraftKings points in two of his last three performances.
Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets (-3.5)
Implied Total: 101.5 – 105, O/U: 207
Nothing but the usual culprits here. There seems to be a misconception that Andre Drummond locks down opposing centers, but it’s just that: Detroit has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 points allowed to centers. Though that may seem like the best matchup, it’s not. Houston will be answering with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 in the paint, the equivalence of the Saints attempting to defend opposing receivers. This is when we would normally suggest to lock up Drummond except he’s still implied to score 39.65 points – a total he’s failed to exceed by -0.65 points over his last 10. And as for James Harden, it’s no secret that he has the highest projected floor (29.9). For $1,300 less, however, one could just as easily pivot towards Jimmy Butler’s floor of 27.1.
Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9.5)
Implied Total: 98.8 – 108.3, O/U: 207
There’s no need to talk about Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant. Instead, let’s focus on the fact that our models show Kemba Walker with a Projected Plus/Minus of -5.7, third-lowest among point guards. Take his 80.75 DraftKings points, a number that still seems ridiculous to type, out of the picture for just one second. Prior to that performance of MLK Day, Walker had failed to meet expectations by an average of -1.01 points in the nine games prior. Then, BOOM! 80.75. Although the Thunder allow +1.0 points above expectations to point guards, Russell Westbrook personally has allowed only 98.4 points per 100 possessions. I think it’s as good of night as any to allow others to chase while we, the tight-knit Fantasy Labs readers that swear not to pelt me if this goes wrong, spend elsewhere.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
Implied Total: 95.3 – 102.3, O/U: 198
With the recent announcement of Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton being declared out (Zaza Pachulia is currently questionable), the value sought in this slate should easily be accessible in this particular matchup. Dwight Powell has averaged 32.7 DraftKings points and 29.3 minutes in three games without Nowitzki. Charlie Villanueva, implied to score only 12.51 points, has averaged a usage of 25.5 in that span. Our models clearly favor both, although Villanueva holds a Projected Plus/Minus of +7.4 due to the fact he’s priced at the absolute minimum. JaVale McGee would also need to be late-swapped immediately if you aren’t shaking from nightmares of the last time we went through this ordeal with Pachulia.
It’s not considered point-chasing if looking to go back to Karl Anthony-Towns. After all, his projected floor of 16.7 points is fourth-highest at his position. Nikola Pekovic will suit up tonight, but be aware that in six games without Kevin Garnett (out), Anthony-Towns has averaged 20.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 43.7 DraftKings points.
Sacramento Kings (-6.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
Implied Total: 110.8 – 104.3, O/U: 215
The Kings are favored by a number that would imply DeMarcus Cousins is needed for the entirety of this game. Simply put, fit him in. His Projected Plus/Minus of +5.9 points is second highest at his position and should certainly stand as the Lakers have allowed +1.3 points above salary-based expectations to power forwards. If Willie Cauley-Stein is your fear in rostering Cousins, fear not: DeMarcus has averaged 28.4 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 50.1 DraftKings points as a power forward this season, up from his averages of 22.6/10.5/45.2 as a center.
Sacramento has been absolutely decimated by opposing back courts, allowing +2.3 points above expectations at the point, +3.9 to off-ball guards. Even though Kobe Bryant is expected to suit up, he’s failed to meet expectations by an average of -8.82 points while battling his Achilles injury. One would be much better off hoping for another explosion from Lou Williams who, despite failing to meet expectations in three straight, has finally seen a salary decrease for the first time since December 28.
Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) at Portland Trailblazers
Implied Total: 104.8 – 103.3, O/U: 208
Eight different Hawks have averaged at least 18 minutes in their last three games, with Al Horford being the only player to average over 30. With tonight not exactly being the best spot for Paul Millsap – the Trailblazers have limited opposing power forwards to -0.7 points below expectations and Millsap has a Projected Plus/Minus of -3.0 – I can’t say the same for Horford, who currently has a Bargain Rating of 80% at DraftKings. His projected floor of 18.2 points is second among centers, making him more than suitable for cash games.
Those who have rostered Damian Lilliard at some point over the last week have either cashed or shower-cried. In his last seven games alone, Lilliard began by overshooting expectations by an average of +17.6 points in the first five, only to fail by -19.16 in his last two. With the Hawks allowing +1.1 points above expectations at his position, however, a bounce-back is surely in the cards. It also helps that his Projected Plus/Minus of +5.1 points is the third highest among points guard (and involved in the third-highest total of the night).
Good luck!
