Tonight brings a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
I guess I’ll keep this train rolling: Russell Westbrook is one of the most talented players in the NBA and currently putting up usage numbers the NBA has never seen (per Basketball Reference) . . .
He’s expensive at $12,900 DK and $12,000 FD but you have to remember that caveat when analyzing him as a DFS asset: This usage isn’t fluky. Tonight, he has a tough matchup against Chris Paul and the LA Clippers, who have been the third-best defense through the first week of the NBA season. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Paul has held opponents to 0.6 DK points below salary-based expectations over the past year and he’s posted an impressive +2.4 Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Westbrook still has a +5.56 Projected Plus/Minus on FD because, well, even $12,000 isn’t enough for a guy with this usage rate, but note that this is a tough spot and it’s a big slate.
Per our Trends tool, starting PGs this year have scored 7.82 DK points above salary-based expectations when facing the Thunder. With such an incredible, Atlas-like offensive burden, Westbrook hasn’t been a great defender (for a while now, but especially this year). Paul has seen abbreviated minutes in his last two games — he played 29.9 minutes against the Suns and 28.9 against the Jazz — but we have him projected for 32.7 minutes and a 24.5 usage rate tonight. At $9,000FD, he represents a $3,000 savings from Westbrook and comes at lower (five to eight percent) projected ownership.
Value
Seriously, what is it going to take to get Tim Frazier‘s FD salary higherl? In three of his four games this year, he has scored at least 40 FD points. He started the year priced at $5,000, and now he’s . . . $5,500. This isn’t an ideal matchup: He’ll face Mike Conley, who rested last night (to the chagrin of many DFS users) and is one of the better PG defenders in the league. Frazier has a poor -0.17 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight on FD. However, what does any of that matter for a guy who can’t get above $5,500 and is projected for 33.8 minutes and 20.3 usage? He boasts the highest Projected Plus/Minus of PGs at +7.39.
Leverage Play
One leverage play I like a lot tonight is the guy just mentioned above: Conley. He burned a lot of DFS users last night by resting, but he has a really nice matchup against a Pelicans team that has allowed teams to score 105.2 points per 100 possessions on the season. Further, Frazier, while a nice DFS value, is pretty terrible defensively: He has allowed PGs to score 5.7 DK points above salary-based expectations over the past year. Conley scored 40.3 FD points in 37.6 minutes against the Wizards last time out and is now fully rested for this matchup against the Pels. He boasts the third-highest FD Projected Plus/Minus (+6.06) and is currently the highest-rated PG in the FD Phan Model.
Shooting Guard
Studs
It seems that James Harden wasn’t bothered by either his sore ankle or a tough Cavaliers defense last time out: He put up 72.9 FD points in 38.2 minutes of action on 41 points, seven rebounds, and 15 assists. Harden now has 47 assists through four games, trailing only Westbrook, John Wall, LeBron James, and other impressive names with his average of 11.75 per game. From an assist perspective, Harden has been a playmaker in the NBA this season. Tonight, he is expensive as usual at $11,200 on both sites but has a projected ceiling more than 10 fantasy points higher than any other SG’s. This Rockets-Knicks game has the highest total on the board at 217 and the Rockets are implied for 109.25 — the third-highest mark tonight. Potential matchups against Derrick Rose or Courtney Lee should have you salivating at Harden’s ceiling.
Values
The two SGs with the highest FD Projected Plus/Minus values in the slate are DeMar DeRozan (+4.28) and Bradley Beal (+4.17). DeRozan has been incredibly consistent this year, scoring at least 41 FD points in each of his first three games and hitting salary-based expectations each time. Tonight, he’ll actually face Beal, who has been decent against SGs in the past year, holding them to 0.3 DK points below expectations. Still, DeRozan should play a ton of minutes (37.6 projected) and use a ton of possessions (30.03 projected usage). Beal has a much lower usage rate (22.06) but is only $5,300 FD and thus has to hit only 21.13 points to meet value. He’s been poor in his first two games of the season, but there are encouraging signs: He played 39.8 minutes last game against the Grizzlies and is projected for over 32 minutes tonight. Beal has slightly higher projected ownership at nine to 12 percent on FD.
Leverage Plays
An interesting leverage play tonight is a guy who sits in the middle of DeRozan’s and Beal’s salaries and is actually the highest-rated SG in the FD Phan Model: Nicolas Batum. Batum hasn’t lit the world on fire — he’s scored 28.8, 26.2, and 29.7 FD points in his first three — but, given his low price tag, he’s met salary-based expectations in all three games. He’s an efficient player: Among players priced under $7,000, he ranks behind only Dwyane Wade (another interesting leverage play) with 0.87 FP/minute. Batum has a lower usage rate of 20.8 compared to other guys in his range, but he has a high floor of 18.4 points because of his ability to score fantasy points in a variety of ways. Oh yeah, and he’ll face Gerald Henderson, who has allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.2 in the past year.
One other guy to monitor if you want to be contrarian and go super stars-and-scrubs is Philly wing Hollis Thompson. This could be a little points-chasey — he scored 36.25 DK points in 28.2 minutes of action last game — but he’s worth a shot or two in GPPs given his minimum $3,000 price tag. At that level, he needs only 12.65 points to hit value, and he showed just last game that his ceiling is three times that. The matchup isn’t ideal — Charlotte ranks fifth in defense this year — but they will be without rim protector Roy Hibbert and, again, he’s $3,000.
Small Forward
Stud
Carmelo Anthony will get the Knicks tonight in the game with the highest-projected total (217). After two subpar games, Melo hit value in his most recent one against the Pistons, scoring 33.9 FD points in 35.2 minutes. That’s obviously still a far cry from the ceiling we’ve historically seen from Melo, but if there were a time to hit that ceiling it might be tonight: Houston has now taken over the title for worst defense in the league, allowing 113 points per 100 possessions. Combine that with Melo’s 35.2 minute projection and high 28.86 usage rate — easily the highest projected usage rate among SFs tonight — and there’s a recipe here for a huge game. He has the highest projected ceiling on both sites and is the highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model.
Value
The value play of the day is Boston SF Jae Crowder, who owns slate-high Projected Plus/Minus marks on both DK and FD of +6.15 and +5.36. He is easily the highest-rated SF in the DK Phan Model and is second behind Carmelo in the FD Model. Jae has been really solid so far this year, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his first three outings, including a 32.8-point FD game in 30.7 minutes against a tough Charlotte defense. Tonight, he’ll have to replicate that: He’s facing a Chicago defense that currently ranks fifth in the league and a defender in Jimmy Butler who has an impressive defensive reputation. This is interesting, however: Per our NBA Matchups tool, Butler has actually allowed opposing players to score 2.8 DK points above salary-based expectations. Given Jae’s low price tags, he’s still a guy to target tonight.
I’ll keep this short: TJ Warren is still just too cheap on FD, where he owns the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of +4.99. He has scored over 38 FD points in two of his three outings, hitting his salary-based expectations in each game, and he’s currently projected for 34.4 minutes and a 20.5 usage rate against a Portland team with a bottom-five defensive ranking this year. Like Frazier, he’s the beneficiary of a price that won’t budge: He’s $5,500, which is the exact same price he was last game against the Clippers — in which he again hit value.
Leverage Play
If you played daily fantasy NBA last night, you learned that it’s definitely still profitable to target players against the 76ers. In fact, our very own Team FantasyLabs member ‘TheClone’ won $100,000 last night using Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic against them:
Congrats to Team FantasyLabs member TheClone for winning the DraftKings $1 Million MEGA Bird. https://t.co/7B6QvxOLta pic.twitter.com/bSYv31LDt1
— FantasyLabs (@FantasyLabs) November 2, 2016
Tonight, the Hornets get them on a back-to-back. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been below 30 minutes in his last two games after playing 34.9 in his first of the year, but we have him currently projected for 30.5 minutes and an 18.4 usage rate. He’s been efficient in his action over the past year — which has sadly been limited —trailing only Melo and Butler at the position with 0.84 fantasy points per minute. Charlotte is 12.5-point favorites over the 76ers and implied for 104 points. MKG could go underowned in tournaments and pay off given the matchup.
Larry Nance Jr. doesn’t have especially impressive minute (23.1) and usage (13.19) projections. However, he is coming off a game in which he scored 31.25 DK points in 29.5 minutes of action and the Lakers will be without starting center Timofey Mozgov tonight. Nance doesn’t have the size to start at that spot against Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard — Tarik Black should get that starting role — but the Lakers could elect to go smaller with Nance and Julius Randle to combat the huge size disadvantage. This is definitely a contrarian play — Atlanta boasts the best defense in the league this year — but Nance is a near-minimum $3,100 DK. If you’re in a large-field GPP, he’s in consideration against the Atlanta second unit.
Power Forward
Stud
The highest-rated PF in the FD Phan Model is Anthony Davis, despite the fact that he is $10,700 — $1,600 more than the next option in Blake Griffin. Davis has simply been spectacular this year, scoring 67.0, 29.0, 76.9, and 95.7 FD points in his first four games. That 29-point outing is discouraging sure, but it was against the Spurs, who have a top-10 defense yet again this season. Tonight, he’ll face a Memphis team that has been shockingly bad defensively this season, ranking as the third-worst unit and allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ll start JaMychal Green — who was a big favorite of the podcasts last year — but, yeah, good luck with that. Green has allowed 3.7 DK points above salary-based expectations to opponents over the last year, and that number could increase after tonight.
Values
The guy with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD is . . . Davis, which is silly and shows how hard it is to price a guy scoring approximately one million fantasy points per game. The guy with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus among FD PFs is Dario Saric, who had a really nice game last night, scoring 25.1 FD points in 31.5 minutes of action against the Magic. He shot 9-15 and 3-4 from the 3-point line, scoring 21 points in total. Tonight, he is projected for 29.5 minutes and a 22.5 usage rate at just $3,900 FD. That salary gives him an implied total of 14.98, a mark he can easily hit if his minutes hold.
On the other side of this matchup is the PF who boasts the highest DK Projected Plus/Minus (+5.05): Charlotte’s Marvin Williams. Again, it’s still a good idea to target the 76ers and, in rostering Williams, you’ll get a starter projected to play 30.2 minutes and use possessions at an 18.2 percent rate while on the floor. Marvin missed salary-based expectations for the first time last game against the Celtics but will have a much easier matchup tonight against the rookie Saric. We don’t have a ton of defensive data on him yet, but in his short time he’s allowed opponents to score 3.9 points above expectations.
Leverage Play
The two leverage plays tonight are the PFs who have the second- and third-highest projected ceilings and sit below Davis in pricing: Blake Griffin and Paul Millsap. Blake is $9,100 FD versus Millsap’s $8,400 and has the higher-projected ceiling of 56.5 FD points. Despite the lower price tag, Millsap actually boasts the higher projected floor of 25.8 points. Blake has a really tough matchup tonight against the Thunder, who actually have the second-best defense in the league, despite the concerning Westbrook defensive data I shared above. Millsap, on the other hand, gets a Lakers team that yet again has a bottom-10 defense and will be missing Mozgov as the rim protector. The Hawks are currently implied for the highest team total at 109.75. Both of these guys are interesting leverage plays given Davis’ presence in the slate: He is projected at nine to 12 percent ownership on FD, compared to five to eight percent for both Griffin and Millsap.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond simply has the nuts matchup tonight: He boasts an Opponent Plus/Minus on FD of +7.95 and will face a Brooklyn team that ranks as a bottom-10 unit in the league so far. They’re bottom-10 in rebound rate and bottom-five in defensive rebound rate, which isn’t ideal against probably the best true rebounder in the league and a guy who has a chance at 20 rebounds any night. It gets even worse: Drummond will match up against Brook Lopez, who has allowed opponents to score 8.9 DK points above salary-based expectations and at a rate of 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past year. Drummond is projected for 32.5 minutes and a 24.72 usage rate. He is the highest-rated player among all positions in the FD Phan Model and is somehow only $8,000. I’ll get bold for a second: I’m predicting a 20-20 game tonight.
Value
Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas has certainly thrived as ‘the guy’ down low for the Raps this year, playing above 30 minutes in each of his first three games and averaging 18-12. Tonight, he’ll face a Washington team that ranks dead last in rebound rate this year. He’ll match up against Marcin Gortat, who has been solid, but the rest of the team has been pretty miserable, ranking 29th in total defense and allowing 110.1 points per 100 possessions. JV is currently projected for 32.2 minutes and a 21.1 usage rate in what should be a close game: Vegas has the Raps as two-point favorites right now. JV’s projected FD ceiling of 54.5 is merely 2.4 points lower than Drummond’s even though he’s $1,600 cheaper.
Steven Adams is another guy who just can’t seem to get a price bump: He had 39.4 FD points in 29.6 minutes of action last game — the only time he’s been below 30 minutes this year, by the way — and is now just $5,000. He has one of the highest Projected Plus/Minus values of +6.09. He is projected for 33.3 minutes and will face a Clippers team that has been tough on defense and on the boards, which should keep Adams’ ownership down: He’s currently projected for five to eight percent ownership on FD. His salary has an implied total of 15.54 points — a mark he should be able to hit despite the tough matchup.
Leverage Play
The two leverage plays tonight, in my opinion, are Marc Gasol and Dwight Howard. Gasol is an interesting leverage play for the same reason Conley is: He burned a lot of people after being scratched last night for rest. And tonight is a beautiful matchup: He’ll face Omer Asik, who has allowed centers to score 1.1 fantasy points per minute and 3.2 points over salary-based expectations over the past year. Gasol is the highest-rated center in the DK Phan Model. Howard is interesting tonight because of Drummond’s presence. We’ve already talked about Drummond’s elite spot, but it is actually Howard who will start for the team with the highest-implied point total of the night (109.75). He is $200 more expensive than Drummond and is projected for only two to four percent ownership on FD. Drummond is definitely the chalk tonight, but pivoting to Howard in this high-scoring affair — and perhaps a #NarrativeStreet game against the Lakers — could pay off in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
