The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The PG position is uncharacteristically thin today, even for a four-game slate. Only one player has a salary above $7,200 on FanDuel: Last year’s one-man wrecking crew Russell Westbrook. So far this season, Westbrook has struggled to pay off his exorbitant salary marks:
This isn’t entirely surprisingly: Westbrook had unprecedented usage and assist rate numbers last season, and those numbers had to be somewhat sacrificed to accommodate his new teammates. In response, FanDuel has lowered his salary by $700 since the start of the season, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. High-salaried players with comparable recent salary changes have historically been excellent values on FanDuel:
That said, he does have a tough matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks: They’ve allowed a Plus/Minus of -3.52 to opposing PGs so far this season, and their slow pace results in a slate-low pace differential (paceD) of -3.8 for the Thunder players. However, the total on this game has already jumped by three points, which does provide some optimism for the offenses. Westbrook is always a solid option for cash games – his Consistency Rating of 87 percent ranks first at the position – and the lack of quality alternatives will likely make him a popular option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Values
After battling Ish Smith for the second half of last season, Reggie Jackson seems to have grabbed hold of the majority of the PG minutes for the Detroit Pistons. So far this season, Jackson has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.96 on FanDuel, and he gets possibly the top matchup of the day against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are currently playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league and have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +4.78 to opposing PGs this season.
Darren Collison has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings, where he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.69 to start the season. He’s taking on a Sacramento Kings team that has allowed an average Plus/Minus of +4.86 to opposing PGs this season, and the Pacers are currently third on the slate with an implied team total of 107.75 points.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox disappointed a lot of people on FanDuel in his most recent game:
Despite getting the start over resting veteran George Hill, Fox managed to turn in his worst game as a young pro. He should return to his regular role today, which perhaps suits him better currently; he posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.46 through his first five games. He leads the PG position with a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Speaking of Hill, he costs just $4,300 on FanDuel and played over 30 minutes in his last game. He’s had ownership in the single digits in each game so far this season and makes for an intriguing GPP pivot from his likely chalkier teammate.
Tyler Ulis has played at least 21 minutes in each of the last three games for the Phoenix Suns and has outscored his implied fantasy point total in all three. Despite his success, he’s actually been priced down by $300 on DraftKings for today’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, which has the highest over/under on the slate by a margin of 16.5 points.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Victor Oladipo continues to thrive for the Indiana Pacers:
He’s assumed a massive piece of the offense without Myles Turner this season, who has already been ruled out for tonight’s contest. With Turner off the floor, Oladipo has posted a usage rate above 32 percent and has averaged over 40 fantasy points on FanDuel per 36 minutes:
That said, his salary has increased by $1,800 since the start of the season on FanDuel, and he has a tough matchup against the Sacramento Kings today. The Kings are not the fantasy gold mine they used to be, thanks mostly to the fact that they’re playing at the fifth-slowest pace this season. They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of -1.69 to opposing SGs on the year.
With Eric Bledsoe seemingly unlikely to play another game for the Phoenix Suns, Devin Booker has cemented his status as their top dog. So far this season, he’s posted a usage rate over 30 percent and averaged approximately 39 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Bledsoe off the floor:
Tonight’s game between the Suns and Nets has the potential for serious offensive fireworks. These teams have played at the fastest pace in the league this season, while also ranking in the bottom-six in defensive efficiency.
Value
Bojan Bogdanovic has SG-eligibility on DraftKings and has played at least 29 minutes in three straight games. Given his average of 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past year, he seems like a value at his current $4,000 salary.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell has had his minutes limited recently after returning from an injury, playing only 42 total over his last two games. Head coach Kenny Atkinson recently declared him to be “100 percent,” however, which could open the door for him to resume his normal role in the offense. He has an extremely juicy matchup against the Suns, who have allowed a ridiculous +7.29 Plus/Minus to SGs this season on FanDuel. Russell has dominated the usage this season with Jeremy Lin off the court:
Small Forward
Studs
To put it simply: Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the best fantasy player in the league this season.
That said, there are a few causes for concern with him today. He’s been priced all the way up to $12,500 on DraftKings, which makes him only the fourth player in our database to reach that mark. The previous three players were Westbrook, James Harden, and LeBron James, and their results have been somewhat mixed:
While Westbrook was capable of paying off this salary thanks to his unprecedented workload without Kevin Durant, both James and Harden struggled to consistently hit their salary-based expectations despite being elite offensive basketball players. To put it further into perspective, Giannis had a negative Plus/Minus in his last game at $12,400 despite posting 33 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists. He can’t just be great at this high a price tag; he’s going to need to be virtually flawless.
What really makes the salary tough to swallow is the absolutely brutal matchup against the wing defenders of the Oklahoma City Thunder. He will either draw the defense of Paul George or Andre Roberson, both of whom have been elite individual defenders throughout their careers. So far this season, SFs are averaging a dreadful -6.63 Plus/Minus against them. Given his salary, the matchup, and his slate-high projected ownership of 31-35 percent, the thought of fading Giannis might be worth entertaining.
Paul George has taken the biggest production hit among the Thunder’s Big 3, with his scoring average dropping over four points compared to last season. He’s also seen his rebounding and assist numbers drop and is surviving mostly due to his average of 3.2 combined steals + blocks per game. That said, his 15 individual Pro Trends lead the slate on DraftKings; that has historically led to good things for comparably-priced SFs:
He does have a tough matchup against the Bucks, however, who have allowed an average Plus/Minus of -2.14 to opposing SFs this season.
Values
T.J. Warren isn’t seeing extensive minutes for the Suns this season, but the minutes he has received have been meaningful: His current usage rate of 24.1 percent trails only Booker’s among Phoenix regulars. Warren has shot the ball at least 15 times in each of the last two games, and the Nets have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +3.94 to opposing SFs.
Stanley Johnson played over 40 minutes against the Warriors on Sunday, which marks the second time he’s accomplished that feat in his first seven games this season. While he’ll likely see fewer minutes against the Lakers, it’s clear he’s going to be a big part of their rotation this season. He has an excellent individual matchup against Brandon Ingram, who ranked 64th out of 67 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season.
Fast Break
DeMarre Carroll is questionable today with an injury, and that’s a situation likely worth monitoring. He’s in play if active – as is virtually everyone else with a pulse in this Nets/Suns game – and if he’s inactivate the stocks of Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe, and Joe Harris should all receive a boost. Harris in particular could be intriguing on DraftKings at only $3,100: He played 23 minutes and posted a Plus/Minus of +6.69 in the last game without Carroll.
Power Forward
Stud
Carmelo Anthony is the highest-priced PF on both sites today, although calling him a stud is a bit of a stretch. Still, he’s been extremely consistent this season on DraftKings with a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his first six games with the Thunder. His current usage rate of 28.4 percent is a decrease of less than one percent from his mark with the Knicks last season, while his field goal percentage of 46.9 percent is his highest mark in the last 10 years. He offers very little in the peripheral categories, but his elite scoring ability should keep him relevant on most nights.
Values
Thaddeus Young is coming off a game where he saw 36 minutes against the Spurs. The Kings have been obliterated by PFs so far this season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of +8.08, which isn’t all that surprising given that Zach Randolph ranked 73rd out of 76 qualifiers at PF in terms of DRPM last season.
Quincy Acy has already been ruled out of today’s contest, which should increase the minutes for both Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Trevor Booker. Booker is cheaper on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and he doesn’t need to play many minutes to pay off his current salary given his average of 1.05 fantasy points per minute this season. RHJ is a slightly better value on DraftKings and played 30 minutes for only the second time all season in his last game.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis has absolutely crushed value after the injury to Turner:
Unfortunately, Sabonis is dealing with an illness and is currently questionable for today’s game. If he were unable to go, it could open the door for Ike Anigbogu or T.J. Leaf to see some extended run today. Both are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings.
Tobias Harris has been up-and-down all season, but this seems like a good spot for him today against the Lakers. They’ve allowed a Plus/Minus of +6.29 to opposing PFs so far this season, despite the fact that Larry Nance Jr. has graded out as an excellent individual defender.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond is in a class of his own among centers on today’s slate: His current salary makes him roughly $3,500 more expensive than the second-priciest option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Drummond has played well all season, but he’s been especially impressive over his last four games, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.63 on FanDuel. The Lakers have been dominated by opposing centers all season, allowing a ridiculous +12.84 Plus/Minus to that position. That number will obviously come down as the season goes along, but, given Brook Lopez’s weaknesses as a defender, it’s not exactly a shock that they’ve been killed by opposing big men. Drummond has added some assist potential to his game this season, which is a nice addition to his 20-point, 20-rebound upside.
Value
Outside of Drummond, pickings are slim today at center. Four of the highest-rated options in our NBA Models are comprised of guys with limited minutes and questionable talent: John Henson, Tyson Chandler, Thon Maker, and Timofey Mozgov. Henson is coming off 27 minutes in his last game and has been the most productive of the group, averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute since the beginning of the season. Chandler has been the most reliable with a Consistency Rating of 83 percent, although he faces the most competition for minutes on his current team. Maker likely has the most long-term upside of the group but has played more than 20 minutes once all season. Finally, Mozgov is essentially a bum, but he has an elite matchup against the Phoenix Suns, who have allowed an opposing Plus/Minus of +12.31 to centers this season. None of these guys will make you feel good about playing them, but all four have clear paths to return value.
Fast Break
Willie Cauley-Stein has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent on FanDuel and has a nice matchup against the undermanned front court of the Indiana Pacers. This is also the front end of a back-to-back for the Kings, who have already shown a willingness to rest some of their veterans early in the season.
Brook Lopez has been terrible recently, thanks in part to playing less than 24 minutes in each of the last four games. There’s certainly a lot of risk in rostering him today, but he has historically fared very well against Drummond in their previous meetings:
He should have minuscule ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
