The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 8:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.82 over his first four games this season, and DraftKings has responded by reducing his salary by $1,900 over that time frame. That’s among the largest decreases Lillard has seen over the course of a month, and he’s historically provided excellent value with a comparable monthly salary change:
The Trail Blazers’ implied team total of 107.5 points currently ranks first on what Vegas has pegged as a low-scoring day: Ten teams on Wednesday’s slate had a higher implied team total than the Blazers do today. The one factor working against Lillard is his individual matchup against Patrick Beverley, who had the second-highest Defensive Real Plus-Minus among PGs last season.
Values
The Mavericks will head to Memphis today to finish the second leg of their back-to-back with the Grizzlies. Historically, targeting the Grizzlies in that situation has not made much sense:
That said, Dennis Smith Jr. has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings and posted 28.75 fantasy points yesterday against these same Grizzlies. He’s still not playing a full complement of minutes as the starting PG – he’s averaging roughly 28 minutes per game at the moment – but his usage rate of 24.0 percent is among the highest on the team.
Patrick Beverley played 42 minutes in the Clippers’ last game thanks to the injury to Milos Teodosic. He will likely draw the defense of Lillard in today’s contest, who ranked just 60th among 78 qualifiers at PG last season in DRPM.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis is unlikely to play after leaving a game early for the billionth time on Tuesday, and Jrue Holiday stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Holiday has seen the biggest spike in usage among Pelicans regulars and has averaged 35.14 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings with Davis off the court this season.
De’Aaron Fox has increased his minutes played in each game this season, culminating with over 30 minutes on Monday against the Phoenix Suns. The No. 5 pick in the draft has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.68 on DraftKings over his first four games and should continue to be a big factor for the Kings despite coming off the bench.
Mike Conley is facing a Mavericks team that has really struggled defensively this season, ranking just 29th out of 30 teams in terms of defensive efficiency. They make up for that by playing at a snail’s pace, but they’ve still allowed the fifth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing PGs so far:
Shooting Guard
Stud
C.J. McCollum has been the better value of the two Blazers guards this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.61 on DraftKings over his first three games. He draws a substantially better matchup than Lillard against Austin Rivers, who ranked 65th among PGs with a DRPM of -1.73 last season. The Clippers have had an elite defensive PG for each of the last seven seasons – first with Chris Paul, now with Beverley – so it would make sense for the Blazers to try and funnel more of their offense through McCollum in these matchups. That said, McCollum has been a poor fantasy producer against the Clippers over the past two seasons:
Values
Austin Rivers has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last two games and has seen his price decrease by $200 on DraftKings since the start of the season. He won’t command a high usage rate – he currently ranks just 10th on the team in that department – but he’s historically been an excellent value when projected for at least 28 minutes of court time:
E’Twaun Moore is similar to Rivers in that he may not have a high usage rate, but he’s usually safe for around 30 minutes of playing time. Just seeing that many minutes at a cheap salary is valuable: His Consistency Rating of 87 percent over the past year ranks second among all SGs on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans and Lou Williams are both playing the same role for their respective teams at the moment: They’re going to play around only 25 minutes a night but both will serve as key pieces of their offenses when they’re on the court. That role may not provide much consistency, but it can occasionally result in a big performance. Evans is more affordable on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, while Williams has a Bargain Rating of 83 percent on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
So far this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the best player in fantasy basketball:
Thanks to his success, Giannis has been priced up all the way to $12,000 on DraftKings, which puts him in rare company: Only seven previous players in our database have had a salary of at least $11,500 on DraftKings, and only two of them have proven the ability to pay off that price tag on a consistent basis:
While those are all great players, those numbers suggests that a player needs to have a Westbrook- or Harden-like season in order to justify a price tag that large. While Giannis has always been incredible at putting up peripheral statistics, his increase in scoring is what’s allowed him to jump up another level for DFS purposes. He currently ranks first in points per game and second in usage rate, and he’s worth a sky-high price tag if those levels continue. The Bucks’ implied team total of 104.75 ranks third on today’s slate.
Value
The Mavericks are in the midst of a stretch of six games in nine days, and it has been reported that Dirk Nowitzki will likely rest during one of those games. While nothing is official yet, tonight’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies seems like a logical candidate. Harrison Barnes would become a very interesting value play if he were to sit: Last year, Barnes saw one of the top increases in usage and averaged over 31 fantasy points per game on DraftKings in games without Dirk:
His $5,100 DraftKings salary comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Evan Turner has played at least 29.5 minutes in three straight games and has scored at least 25.5 fantasy points in all of them. His eight Pro Trends trail only Antetokounmpo’s among SFs on DraftKings, where Turner has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Danilo Gallinari has yet to find success as a member of the Clippers, thanks in part to a dreadful 31.6 percent shooting percentage through his first three games. However, he has averaged 34 minutes per game to start the season and has seen his price decrease by $200 on FanDuel over that time frame. As long as he continues to get minutes, he should eventually prove a value at his current price tag on FanDuel:
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin leads the Clippers with a usage rate of 30.4 percent this season, and he’s seen an even larger portion of the offense with Milos Teodosic off the court:
He gets an excellent matchup today against the Trail Blazers, who allowed the highest Plus/Minus to opposing PFs on FanDuel last season.
Value
Zach Randolph played just 15.5 minutes in his last game thanks to foul trouble but still figures to be a large part of the Kings offense this season. He’s seen his salary decrease by $1,300 on FanDuel since the start of the season, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Lauri Markkanen is playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment thanks to multiple injuries to the Chicago frontcourt. He’s responded by averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.27 on DraftKings through his first three games. He has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings, where his eight Pro Trends trail only Griffin’s, Davis’, and Cousins’ at the position.
Fast Break
If Dirk does sit, Dwight Powell could make for an intriguing punt play at the PF position. He’s currently priced at just $3,100 on FanDuel and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute.
Jayson Tatum has seen the biggest price increase among all PFs on both DraftKings and FanDuel since the start of the season. He’s yet to fail to hit value, owning a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on both sites, and has an average Plus/Minus of +9.13 on DraftKings over that time frame. He’s much more affordable today on DraftKings, where his $6,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Center
Studs
Assuming Davis is finally ruled out, it will be hard to pass on DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins leads the league with a usage rate of 37.2 percent, and that number has unsurprisingly increased with Davis off the court this season:
He’s averaged roughly 65 fantasy points per 36 minutes in that situation and has the top Opponent Plus/Minus among today’s centers at +3.66 on DraftKings. This is also a #RevengeGame for Cousins against his old team, who seems like the kind of guy who might hold a grudge. He should dominate ownership without Davis.
Marc Gasol lit up the Mavericks for 52.75 DraftKings points yesterday, which isn’t surprising given their awful rebound rate over the past two seasons. His current usage rate of 30.6 percent is tops on the team and would represent an increase of almost four percent from his previous career-high. He leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Value
Nerlens Noel is yet another candidate who could possibly benefit if Dirk sits. He’s averaged 1.12 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel but has been plagued by a lack of minutes so far this season. If he were to see even 25 minutes in this game, he has the potential to pay off his $5,000 salary.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has struggled so far this season and played just 20 minutes in his last game. His salary has decreased by $1,300 since the start of the season on DraftKings, leaving him at just $6,200 currently. Last year, he provided awesome value when comparably priced for the Trail Blazers:
The Blazers will likely need him on the court to match up with DeAndre Jordan, so this seems like a prime spot for him to bounce back.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
