The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features an eight-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET on DraftKings and 7:00 pm ET on FanDuel.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been priced down to $10,400 on FanDuel, which is his cheapest salary since May of 2016. Historically, he’s crushed with a comparable price tag:
That said, this clearly isn’t the same Westbrook from years past: His scoring has dropped by more than 12 points per game, and his usage rate of 30.4 percent would be his lowest mark since his second year in the league. His matchup against the Blazers is a bit of a double-edged sword: Damian Lillard is one of the worst defenders at the PG position – he ranked 60th out of 79 qualifiers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season – but the Blazers are allowing a Plus/Minus of -2.17 to opposing PGs this year. Today’s slate is surprisingly big for a Sunday, but it does lack top-end talent; it will be interesting to see what Westbrook’s ownership is given his poor track record this year.
Damian Lillard has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings, where he leads all PGs with 14 individual Pro Trends. Lillard always seems to bring his best effort when playing against other elite PGs, so it’s no surprise that he’s historically done well against Westbrook:
Values
Patty Mills has started two consecutive games for the Spurs, recording an average Plus/Minus of +6.32 over that time frame. He’s played roughly 28 minutes in both of those contests, so it’s not surprising that he’s done well given his average of over 32 DraftKings points per 36 minutes without Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard on the court last season:
He has an excellent matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, who have allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.18 to PGs on DraftKings this season.
Jarrett Jack has played at least 29 minutes in three of his last four games, with the sole exception being a 22-point loss to the Houston Rockets. He’s not going to be an impactful player when on the court – his usage rate of 12.5 percent ranks 13th on the Knicks – but comparably-priced PGs have traditionally offered value on FanDuel just by virtue of playing that many minutes:
Fast Break
Mike Conley is in an extreme pace-up spot against the Lakers today, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +6.1. Historically, a paceD that large has resulted in fantasy success for Conley:
The Lakers are surprisingly ninth in the league in defensive efficiency, but they’re still allowing a Plus/Minus of +3.23 to opposing PGs on DraftKings.
Kemba Walker has one of the best matchups of the day against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are tied for 26th in defensive efficiency and have allowed a Plus/Minus of +4.00 to opposing PGs this season. He has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings.
Ricky Rubio is in the top pace-up spot of the day against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a paceD of +8.9. The Rockets have allowed a Plus/Minus of +3.73 to opposing PGs this season on DraftKings, where Rubio has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden represents an interesting dilemma today against the Utah Jazz. On one hand, the Jazz are a brutal matchup, ranking third in defensive efficiency and last in pace last season. Even when Harden was lighting the world on fire last year he struggled in this matchup:
He’s yet to find the same level of fantasy success on a regular basis this season, but that has resulted in him being priced down to just $10,100 on DraftKings for today’s matchup. Even in one of the worst matchups possible, paying up for Harden gives you unmatched safety at SG: His current floor projection is tops at the position by almost 10 points.
Value
Donovan Mitchell appears to be a player on the rise in Utah. He’s played at least 31 minutes in back-to-back games, scoring at least 38.25 DraftKings points in each of them. He’s almost a free square on DraftKings, where his current $3,800 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Tyreke Evans has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and has almost returned value in every game this season:
He’s likely still underpriced given his current role and should benefit from the pace-up spot against the Lakers.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan has one of the top matchups of the day against Bradley Beal and the Wizards: Beal had a DRPM of -1.04 last season, and the Wizards are allowing a Plus/Minus of +5.24 to opposing SGs this season.
John Wall is currently questionable for today’s game; if he were to miss, Beal would instantly become one of the top plays of the day. Last season, Beal had a usage rate north of 30 percent and averaged roughly 38 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Wall off the court:
Victor Oladipo has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel and continues to smash value:
Myles Turner did return to the lineup last game but was limited to just 24 minutes off the bench. Assuming he fills the same role today, Oladipo should be clear to dominate usage for the Pacers once again.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George has been a consistent asset in Oklahoma City, returning value in all but one contest this season. He does have a difficult matchup today against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.28 to SFs this season and rank fifth in defensive efficiency. Still, he leads the position with 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which has historically correlated with fantasy success:
Value
Dillon Brooks has moved into the starting lineup for the Memphis Grizzlies and has played at least 29 minutes in four straight games. At just $3,800 on FanDuel, wing players with comparable minute projections and salaries have historically destroyed in pace-up spots:
Bojan Bogdanovic has scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +13.00 over that time frame. The game between the Pacers and Knicks profiles as one of the best of the day for DFS purposes: It has the third-highest total of the day at 215.5 points with just a one-point spread.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler has one of the top matchups of the day at the SF position – Charlotte has allowed an average Plus/Minus of +8.97 to SFs on FanDuel – but it’s tough to consider paying up for him at the moment:
His $8,500 salary results in a Bargain Rating of one percent on FanDuel, although that should lower his ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Minnesota leads the slate with an implied team total of 112.5 points.
Power Forward
Studs
Kristaps Porzingis has smashed this season, going for at least 30 real points in six of his eight games. He leads the league with a usage rate of 35.8 percent, while his average of 2.68 blocks + steals per game ranks first among today’s PFs by a substantial margin. It’s hard to find a player giving you more on both ends of the court at the moment.
He has an excellent matchup against the Pacers, who are allowing a Plus/Minus of +4.05 to opposing PFs on FanDuel this season. They’ve improved a bit on the glass, jumping from 25th in 2016-17 to 14th in 2017-18, but most of that improvement has come with Turner on the sidelines; it will be interesting to see how his presence on the court affects those numbers going forward. Porzingis’ ceiling projection trails only Westbrook’s, Harden’s, and Rudy Gobert’s on today’s slate.
While Porzingis might be the sexier option, it’s hard to discount the safety of LaMarcus Aldridge. He has one of the top matchups of the day against the Phoenix Suns, who rank second in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency this season. Aldridge’s current usage rate of 28.4 percent is his highest mark as a member of the Spurs, which makes sense given the absence of Leonard and Parker. As long as those two continue to miss time, Aldridge should serve as the focal point for a Spurs offense currently implied for 110.5 points.
Value
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been ruled out for the Hornets today, which should open the door for Frank Kaminsky to assume a larger role: He’s averaged roughly 25.5 points per game on FanDuel in contests MKG has failed to suit up:
That kind of production would make him a solid value at his current $4,300 price tag, but he has potential for more against the Timberwolves: They’ve allowed an average Plus/Minus of +6.89 to opposing PFs this season.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter has PF-eligibility on DraftKings and is coming off a game where he saw roughly 32 minutes of court time. Kanter may not always play a ton of minutes, but you can count on him to be productive in the minutes he does see: His average of 1.24 fantasy points per minute trails only Porzingis’ among PF-eligible players on today’s slate.
Aaron Gordon has been a bit of a rollercoaster in terms of his minutes recently, playing as many as 36 or as few as 18 over his last four games. That said, he has typically seen big minutes in games that have stayed close this season, and the Magic are underdogs of only 3.5 points on today’s slate. He offers as much upside at the position with the possible exception of Porzingis.
Center
Studs
Karl-Anthony Towns has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings today but has a brutal matchup against Dwight Howard and the Charlotte Hornets: His Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.50 is one of the worst marks on the slate. Even a player as good as KAT has historically been vulnerable to a matchup this difficult:
That said, the Timberwolves do have the highest implied team total on the slate, and KAT should check in with lower-than-usual ownership despite the lack of star power. That gives him some appeal in GPPs.
Rudy Gobert is in a massive pace-up spot against the Rockets and has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings. The Rockets have actually been stout against centers so far this season, allowing an average Plus/Minus of -3.38, but their typically fast pace can lead to a lot of rebound chances if shots are not falling.
Value
Brook Lopez has enjoyed life with Larry Nance Jr. off the court this season:
He played over 30 minutes last game for the first time in a while with Nance unavailable and should have a much safer minutes floor with one fewer big man in the rotation. He’s another center with a tough matchup today against Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies, but he may be too good of a bargain to pass up.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard isn’t really priced as a ‘stud’ or a ‘value,’ but that shouldn’t stop him from being the top name on your list at center today. He’s been a monster all season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.38 on DraftKings through his first nine games, and he gets an elite matchup against Towns, who posted the worst DRPM at the center position last year and has allowed a Plus/Minus of +5.53 to opposing centers this season. Howard has also been one of the most productive members of the Hornets with MKG off the court this season, owning a Plus/Minus differential of +2.5. He’s especially valuable on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Jusuf Nurkic has gone for at least 44 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and appears to be one of the primary beneficiaries with Al-Farouq Aminu out:
He remains an awesome value on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
