Every team playing today is on the second night of a back-to-back. Some teams have it worse than others: The Thunder are playing for the fourth night in five days, and the Hornets, Pistons, and Warriors will play for the sixth time in nine days. For the second straight day, the Heat will face the Grizzlies and the Knicks will battle the Hornets.
The status of most of the Heat and Grizzlies players hasn’t been finalized, so I can only speculate on how they’ll implement rotations as they face each other for the second straight day. John Wall could have his minutes monitored, and Draymond Green injured his ankle last night. There are more unknowns than knowns at this point.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook costs $11,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings. He will likely be guarded by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and that matchup marginally slowed him down in their first meeting. His second lowest-scoring DFS game over the past nine games came against the Pistons. Andre Drummond didn’t play in that game, and he’s a far worse rim protector than Aron Baynes, per NBA.com stats player tracking. The Pistons are currently ranked sixth in Defensive Rating, but their 109.6 Defensive Rating on the road ranks 25th in the NBA. I mentioned the Thunder’s schedule up top, but I’m not sure if four games in five nights could cause Westbrook’s downfall. On the second night of back-to-backs this season, Westbrook has averaged 58.17 DK points, which is one point higher than his implied point total today.
Stephen Curry costs at least $2,600 less than Westbrook on DK and FD. He’s also been more consistent than Westbrook on DK this season, and if Green is unable to play then Curry’s assist total could increase. Curry has played 51 minutes total without Green this season, so we can’t say anything definitive.
We don’t know how John Wall and Mike Conley will be handled on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Kemba Walker has struggled against the Knicks in home games over the past three seasons. I think the inclination would be to target Westbrook on a small slate in guaranteed prize pools in the event that he busts out for a triple-digit DFS night. It’s easier to accomplish on FF, but if you’re prompted to fade Westbrook on DK then take into account that Curry’s salary has leveled off sufficiently.
Values
Point guards have performed well against the Thunder this season, leading the league on both DK and FD in Plus/Minus. Ish Smith leads all players in the Player Models with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.33, no and in their first meeting he supplied 27.5 DK points. He’s the optimal play at the second point guard on FD, and he’s currently the second-highest rated DK player in the Phan Model.
After the Thunder, the Hornets have allowed the highest Plus/Minus to point guards this season, and neither defense — the Thunder by default — has faced Westbrook. Derrick Rose marginally exceeded salary-based expectations against the Hornets on Friday, and his average on the second night of back-to-backs this season is higher than his yearly average.
Leverage Plays
I’m not too keen on Wall, Conley, and Goran Dragic at the moment because of the accompanying uncertainty, and that leaves Walker in the mix. He struggled against Rose last night, and point guards have averaged a season-low -3.67 Plus/Minus on DK when facing the Knicks this season. Kemba is projected to have similar ownership to Wall, Curry and Westbrook on DK, and he’s been the second-most consistent point guard on the main slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Klay Thompson is just the fourth-most expensive shooting guard option on DK. That is to say, there is no stud option on this slate. They all have their warts, but Thompson leads the group with a 93 percent Consistency on DK and the highest ceiling projection. He’s the ultimate tournament play because of his streaky shooting, but it’s unsavory for cash games.
Values
Tyler Johnson, Rodney McGruder, Josh Richardson, and Dion Waiters: They all become relevant when Dragic and Justise Winslow aren’t available. Waiters has played the last three games despite a groin issue, but he offers the highest ceiling. McGruder is the punt play at minimum salary: In the three games he’s played at least 30 minutes, he averaged an uninspiring 19.75 DK points. Richardson is the cheapest option on FD ($4,000), and Johnson is technically the backup point guard, but he has shooting guard eligibility on DK.
Shooting guards have averaged a +2.76 Plus/Minus against the Grizzlies this season, and Johnson produced 34.75 DK points against the Grizzlies last night. Johnson remains the cheapest option of the four listed Heat on DK.
Leverage Plays
Nicolas Batum is the most expensive shooting guard on FD and DK. He missed a triple-double by one assist and one rebound against the Knicks last night. However, he led all players with 45 minutes played, averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. It’s easy to assume he’ll duplicate his performance, but if he doesn’t he’ll make for a better purchase on FD. Of course, he’s also been downgraded to questionable. Be sure to monitor his situation on our NBA News feed.
Small Forward
Studs
Kawhi Leonard leads all players with a Projected Plus/Minus on DK and FD. Jimmy Butler hung 64.1 FD points against the Wizards earlier this season, and that should bode well for Leonard’s prospects. Today marks the second game of a back-to-back set, and that could mean resting for players on the Spurs. When LaMarcus Aldridge is off the court, Leonard’s usage rate increases to 37 percent. It’s not confirmed that Aldridge will sit. I’m merely forecasting what may happen with the Spurs playing their third game in four nights.
Values
Carmelo Anthony scored a career-high 62 actual points against the Hornets three seasons ago, and last night he dropped 68.0 DK points. His third-highest averaged Plus/Minus on FD has come against the Hornets (+6.59), but he did play 41 minutes in an overtime win. I’m not sure if coach Jeff Hornacek is going to limit Anthony’s minutes on a back-to-back, but after he diced up Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last night Carmelo may get the extended opportunity to exploit that matchup once more.
Leverage Plays
Kevin Durant leads all players with 100 percent Consistency on FD this season. However, he’s averaged 37.38 FD points and a -4.94 Plus/Minus in five games against the Wolves. I’m not entirely sure how indicative those stats are, given that Durant isn’t listed above $10,000 anymore. Because Leonard has undercut Durant in pricing on both sites by a considerable margin, Durant profiles better as the leverage play at small forward. Most of the exposure should belong to Leonard.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green exited Friday’s contest with a left ankle contusion but plans on playing today. However, he admitted that if the ankle is hurting prior to game time then he’ll sit. To quote Steve Kerr, “Draymond rolled his ankle. He told me just now it’s not bad, but we’ll see tomorrow.” Green leads the Warriors with an +11.05 Plus/Minus on DK in his last seven games against the Timberwolves. The Warriors are presently 14-point favorites, and the game doesn’t begin until three and a half hours after lineups lock for the main slate. His recent performance (much like his salary) has tailed off, and there’s too much value at power forward to rely on Green in cash games.
Values
Frank Kaminsky played the final 26 minutes of Friday’s game against the Knicks. He made 3-of-17 shots and coach Steve Clifford didn’t use Spencer Hawes at all, which is telling. In Cody Zeller’s return to the lineup, Kaminsky led all frontcourt players in minutes. Over the past six games, Kaminsky has averaged 27.73 FD points, which is 9.67 points above today’s salary-based expectation. He hasn’t been named the starter yet, but Kaminsky’s minutes should be solidified with Marvin Williams doubtful to play because of a hyperextended left knee.
In the 23 minutes Kristaps Porzingis and Kaminsky shared the court last night, Porzingis scored all of his 16 points and recorded a 32.2 percent usage rate. When Williams was on the court, Porzingis went 0-for-2. In three games against the Hornets, Porzingis has averaged a +11.06 Plus/Minus on FD, where he carries a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Porzingis certainly provides value on FD, but he’s more of a leverage play on DK.
Leverage Plays
Jon Leuer is the cheaper, non-bombastic version of Kaminsky. His production has fluctuated, and he’s been less productive than Kaminsky recently, but coach Stan Van Gundy decided to roll with Leuer over Tobias Harris in the final quarter of last night’s game. That’s probably not a trend, but it show’s Van Gundy’s confidence in Leuer. He’s projected to go owned in 13-16 percent of FD GPP lineups, which is on par with JaMychal Green‘s ownership. Green will be afforded additional minutes with Zach Randolph away from the team due to personal reasons. Kaminsky will likely be the highest-targeted power forward under $5000, but Leuer and Green cost less.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside has recorded two consecutive duds, yet he’s able to record video game stats in any matchups, and he’s currently listed with the highest Projected Plus/Minus among centers on either site. In last night’s tussle with Marc Gasol, Whiteside accrued three fouls in the first three minutes of the second half, limiting his playing time, so he’ll be relatively fresh tonight. That Whiteside is still rated highly speaks to his unrivaled ceiling at his position. Teams are required to present lineups 30 minutes before the start of the game, and the Heat and Grizzlies don’t play until an hour after lineups lock. Grizzlies coach David Fizdale may opt to give Gasol the night off on the road, but more likely he’ll limit the minutes of his healthy players.
Values
Andre Drummond hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in the past two games, yet he’s managed to exceed salary-based expectations both times. The Thunder plays at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and in their first meeting Aron Baynes was able to record 20 points and eight rebounds with Drummond ruled out.
The Spurs are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. LaMarcus Aldridge has already rested on two separate occasions this season. On the other hand, Pau Gasol has played in all 16 games. This is purely conjecture, but if Aldridge sits again then Gasol enters cash consideration.
Leverage Plays
If Green doesn’t play, Karl-Anthony Towns could feast. He’s aided by the Warriors’ top-three pace, but over the past five games the Warriors have turned in a Defensive Rating of 93.2. The Timberwolves are presently 14-point underdogs, and the center position is filled with a ton of value today. Focus on Towns in tournaments, and remember that we probably won’t learn of Green’s status until after lineups lock.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
