The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Despite only eight teams being in action tonight, PG is absolutely loaded at the top. It’s headlined by Russell Westbrook, who has been the best player in fantasy recently. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.68 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which has resulted in an average Plus/Minus of +5.94 on FanDuel over his past 10 games.
His matchup today with the Sacramento Kings is pretty interesting. On one hand, the Kings rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, allowing an average of 110.2 points per 100 possessions. OKC’s resulting implied team total of 110.25 ranks just fifth on the slate, but it does represent an increase of nearly six points compared to their season average. Overall, it seems like it should be a really good spot for Westbrook. That said, the Kings have stifled opposing PGs all season, with only the Thunder allowing a lower average Plus/Minus to the position:
The Kings have played at the fifth-slowest pace this season, and the slow pace has trumped the poor defense for fantasy purposes so far. Westbrook can obviously go off against anyone, but this spot is far from as good as it looks on paper.
Chris Paul might be the safest bet at the top of the PG position with James Harden still sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate by 5.4 percent in games without his bearded running mate, resulting in an average of 48.54 DraftKings points per game:
He’s a slightly better value today on DraftKings, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Stephen Curry has the best matchup of the day against the Cleveland Cavaliers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.37. He’s also been red-hot of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.08 over his past 10 games:
The Warriors lead the slate with an implied team total of 118 points and are just 5.5-point favorites on the road. That should be a good thing for Curry: He’s historically smashed with a comparable implied team total and a spread of less than 10 points:
The ownership dynamic between these three stud PGs could go a long way in determining the winners and losers on today’s slate.
Value
De’Aaron Fox has maintained a big role for the Kings recently despite George Hill returning to the lineup. He played over 35 minutes in his last game, and that kind of playing time will give him an excellent shot to return value at just $4,900 on DraftKings given his average of 0.9 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings is also the top mark among PGs on today’s slate.
Fast Break
There’s not a whole lot of interesting PGs in the mid-range, which makes the thought of paying up for one of the studs even more appealing. One potential exception, however, could be Darren Collison. Believe it or not, Utah has actually been bad against opposing PGs this season, and Collison’s resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.62 ranks third at the position on FanDuel for today’s slate. This is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Pacers, but Collison should be relatively fresh after not playing in the fourth quarter of a blowout win yesterday. His Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel is also tied for the second-highest mark among PGs.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Cavaliers have been absolutely dreadful against opposing SGs all season, which puts Klay Thompson squarely on the radar for tonight’s slate. Not only has Cleveland allowed the highest average Plus/Minus to SGs this season, but they’ve done so by a pretty comfortable margin:
Thompson doesn’t offer the same floor as some of the other top SGs on today’s slate, but he can give you a similar ceiling at a slightly cheaper price tag. He should be popular for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Tyrone Wallace remains very affordable on FanDuel at $4,200 and has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games for the Clippers. He’s been impressive since joining the team earlier this month, averaging 0.83 FanDuel points per minute, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07 in what should be an uptempo matchup with the Houston Rockets.
Fast Break
The Jazz could be in a sneaky spot today against the Pacers. They’re currently implied for 105.75 points, which would represent an increase of more than five points compared to their season average. That could spell good things for Donovan Mitchell, who has crushed this season in games with a comparable implied team total:
He’ll obviously need to score more than that today to return value at his current salary ($7,400 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings), but it’s good to know he’s historically exceeded value when the Jazz have been expected to score points.
Small Forward
Studs
The top of the SF position is almost as strong as PG today, featuring two of the NBA’s best players in LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Unfortunately, there are negatives to consider with both players.
We’ll start with King James. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.95 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet he remains one of the most-expensive players on the slate. He’s been hurt fantasy-wise by the return of Isaiah Thomas more than most people would’ve expected, averaging 9.6 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with him so far this season:
It’s still early in the relationship, and things figure to improve the more they play together, but it’s concerning nonetheless. Further, the matchup with the Warriors isn’t great for LeBron, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.37. LeBron scored just 29.2 FanDuel points against the Warriors on Christmas earlier this season and has averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.17 against them over the past three seasons.
On the other side of this matchup, Durant should have no such problems with the Cavaliers. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.55 leads all SFs projected for at least 25 minutes on DraftKings, which is no surprise given the Cavs’ defensive struggles this season. The bigger concern with KD is his salary now that the team is back at full strength — particularly his price tag on FanDuel at $10,700. Historically, he hasn’t been able to return value at such a high salary as a member of the Warriors:
He’s much more appealing on DraftKings at $9,800, but even that is higher than we’ve seen him at for the majority of the season with Curry in the lineup. He gets the clear edge over LeBron if you’re paying up at the position, but there’s still risk involved here.
Value
Joe Ingles has been playing heavy minutes for the Jazz recently, seeing at least 31.5 in six straight games. He’s played even more than that over his past two games, and he’s currently projected for 34.2 minutes today in our NBA Models. That should give him a solid chance to return value given his season-long average of 0.79 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Gerald Green owns a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel and has played at least 32 minutes in each of the Rockets’ past two games. He has a solid matchup against the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.91, and he’s averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute since signing with Houston. He should be one of the more popular value options of the day on FanDuel.
Paul George has failed to hit value in four straight games on DraftKings, which will likely result in reduced ownership on today’s slate. That could make him an appealing buy-low candidate: He has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent and trails only LeBron at the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is not nearly as strong as some of the other positions on today’s slate, with only two players owning salaries above $6,500 on FanDuel. One of those options is Blake Griffin, who’s in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Rockets. He leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Paying up for Blake at PF could be an interesting way to make your lineup contrarian with most people choosing to pay up at PG or SF.
Value
Domantas Sabonis wasn’t really needed yesterday with the Pacers cruising to an easy win against Phoenix, but he still figures to be a solid value with Myles Turner out of the lineup. So far this season, he’s averaged over 30 fantasy points per game in that situation:
On the other side of the same matchup, Derrick Favors could be in a really nice spot. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.98 and has continued to play 30-plus minutes most nights in the absence of Rudy Gobert. He’s failed to hit value in each of his past two games on DraftKings but had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the five prior ones.
Fast Break
Like most of the Warriors, Draymond Green has an awesome Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Cavs. His mark of +6.94 ranks first on DraftKings, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He’s been a solid contributor recently as well, averaging an Plus/Minus of +3.33 over his past 10 games.
Center
Stud
Clint Capela has one of the best matchups of the day against the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.09 on DraftKings. He’s also benefited from the injuries to Nene and Tarik Black in the Rockets’ frontcourt, playing at least 33.5 minutes in two of his past three games. Black is currently a game-time decision, and Capela would likely need to log heavy minutes once again if he’s unable to go. Given his position-high average of 1.25 fantasy points per minute over the past month, that would be extremely appealing.
Value
While the Kings’ slow pace has made them tough against opposing guards this season, it hasn’t helped them at all against opposing centers. That results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.11 for Steven Adams on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Kevin Love has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel, which makes him a bit of an anomaly at the center position. Virtually every other option on today’s slate is a much stronger value on DraftKings:
That alone makes him very appealing, but he’s been plagued even more than LeBron by the presence of IT. So far this season, he’s averaged 13.8 fewer fantasy points when sharing the court with him. Ultimately, he makes a lot of sense for GPPs given the salary discount that he offers, but it’s very tough to trust him for cash games.
Good luck!
Photo via Cary Edmonson-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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