The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul has failed to return value in both games without James Harden this season, but there were some encouraging signs in his last outing. He posted a season-high usage rate of 33.4 percent, while falling just three rebounds and one assist shy of a triple-double. If he can add some defensive statistics and possibly eliminate a turnover or two, he doesn’t need to do much more offensively to be a value at his current salary. That said, he does have a tough matchup today with the Detroit Pistons. The Rockets’ implied team total of 108.75 ranks just fifth on the slate, and Paul has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.05 on FanDuel.
Value
The Kings have the potential to be really shorthanded at PG today, with Frank Mason III already ruled out and George Hill currently questionable. De’Aaron Fox played 33 minutes in his first game back from injury and could be forced into a similar workload today if Hill can’t suit up. With both Hill and Mason off the court this season, Fox has seen a usage bump of 3.1 percent and averaged just under 28 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Fox does not have a good track record this season when earning the start for Hill, averaging just 9.55 FanDuel points in four games without him this season, but this would be the first game with Mason also out of the lineup. Fox has appeal against a Denver team playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.
Fast Break
Detroit got their doors blown off by the 76ers last night, resulting in just 26 minutes of playing time and 22 FanDuel points for Ish Smith. Still, he figures to be a value at his current salary for as long as Reggie Jackson is sidelined: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.98 on FanDuel with a comparable salary ($6,000) and minute projection (31.3):
Elfrid Payton features one of the biggest pricing discrepancies of the day at the PG position, owning a $6,700 salary on DraftKings and $8,000 salary on FanDuel. That results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on the former in a solid matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Payton has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88, and that number figures to only get worse with Isaiah Thomas now factoring into the PG rotation.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo hopes to make his return today for the Indiana Pacers in what has the potential to be an awesome spot against the Chicago Bulls. The Pacers’ implied team total of 109 points is fourth on the slate, and Oladipo has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus ratings at the position at +5.03 on DraftKings. There’s always the concern of a minutes limit with a player’s first game back from injury, but Oladipo downplayed the issue when asked about it after Thursday’s practice. If he does play full minutes, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Sharp players were all over Avery Bradley yesterday on DraftKings. He was owned at 34.92 percent in the $1,080 buy-in level compared to just 14.34 percent at the $8 buy-in level, resulting in the second largest “Volatility” rating of the day on our Ownership Dashboard:
The high-stakes ownership makes sense. He played 38 minutes in his first game back from an injury, the Pistons were a bit shorthanded given the injury to Stanley Johnson, and he was in a great spot against the Philadelphia 76ers. He disappointed badly in a blowout, but there was a lot to like overall.
The same can be said about Bradley today. He still has the potential to play big minutes in a wonderful matchup — this time against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets rank eighth in pace this season and have been playing faster since the injury to Harden, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +5.4 for the Detroit players on today’s slate. Bradley also has one of the best Opponent Plus/Minus marks of the day at +5.73.
Fast Break
The Celtics defense was able to limit Jimmy Butler last night, but Butler’s fantasy numbers over his past 10 games are still very impressive:
He continues to get no love on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 99 percent yet again on today’s slate. He has a much more fantasy-friendly matchup today against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28.
Eric Gordon has been excellent in his first two games without Harden, averaging a usage rate of 30.8 percent and 42.63 DraftKings points per game:
Despite his massive production, his salary hasn’t budged on DraftKings. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James sits atop the SF position today and has a wonderful matchup against the Orlando Magic. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 for LeBron on DraftKings, and the Cavaliers’ implied team total of 115.25 is first on the slate by a margin of 5.5 points. Typically, paying up for LeBron is one of the safest things you can do in daily fantasy basketball: He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 89 percent on FanDuel and 88 percent on DraftKings.
That said, there’s a bit more risk today. That risk comes in the form of Thomas, who ate into LeBron’s workload in their first game together on Wednesday. Overall, this is a good thing for the Cavs – LeBron should not have been playing 40 minutes a night in December – but a slightly reduced workload and usage rate could have an impact on his fantasy numbers. LeBron’s salary was this high for just 24 games during the three years he played with Kyrie Irving, so it’s not crazy to think he’s a bit overpriced at the moment with the team getting closer to full strength.
Value
Otto Porter is questionable for today’s contest, and Kelly Oubre will likely enter the starting lineup if he’s unable to go. Still, he’s not exactly a slam dunk for a couple of reasons. First, Porter’s absence hasn’t really helped him much this season. He’s averaged just 26.9 minutes and 17 DraftKings points per game in the three games without Porter:
He also has a tough matchup against the strong wing defenders of the Milwaukee Bucks, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.49. He still might make sense as a cash-game play considering his current salary, but it might be wise to limit exposure in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
E’Twaun Moore is playing heavy minutes for the Pelicans of late, seeing at least 30 minutes of court time in four straight games. He’s always been a solid option when he receives minutes, resulting in a Consistency Rating of 88 percent over the past year on FanDuel.
Wilson Chandler has sandwiched a game of 36.75 DraftKings points in between two clunkers. He’s been very inconsistent all season despite routinely playing 34-plus minutes, but today’s matchup against the Kings seems like a potentially exploitable one. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total has increased by a slate-high 1.8 points since opening.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is coming off a huge outing in his last game, scoring 62.75 DraftKings points against a usually stout Jazz defense. That marked the third time in his past four games that he exceeded salary-based expectations – twice by at least 14.5 points – yet his salary over that time frame has decreased by $900 on DraftKings. His current $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and Davis has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.99 when comparably-priced over the past two seasons:
He also has a solid matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.78.
Value
It’s very difficult to decipher what the Kings are going to do on any given night, but the one constant has been Zach Randolph leading the team in usage. He’s led the team with a mark of 27.6 percent with both Hill and Mason off the court this season, which he’s converted into an average of 41.84 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He probably won’t approach anywhere near 36 minutes on today’s slate, but he doesn’t need to play that much to have a chance to return value at $5,500 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon leads all PFs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. He has a strong matchup today against the Cavaliers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61.
The Rockets are back on the road for today’s contest, which means it’s officially safe to fire Ryan Anderson up again. I honestly have no idea why this guy can’t shoot at home, but his home/road splits from the past two seasons are stark:
Continue to doubt the splits at your own peril.
Center
Stud
While Davis has a good matchup against the Timberwolves, DeMarcus Cousins has a great one. Karl-Anthony Towns continues to grade out as one of the worst defensive big men in the league in terms of Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM), and Cousins has historically eaten his lunch since entering the league three years ago:
That includes a 73.8-point performance earlier this season; Boogie’s current ceiling projection trails only LeBron’s on today’s slate.
Value
Death. Taxes. Mason Plumlee returning value in less than 25 minutes. Plumlee has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his past 13 games on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He has a tremendous matchup today against the Kings, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.38.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond leads all players on DraftKings with 13 Pro Trends, where he represents a nice value at just $8,600. He played just 28 minutes yesterday in a blowout, which eases the back-to-back concern today.
Domantas Sabonis has been so effective this season that he’s starting to eat into Myles Turner’s workload. He’s played at least 28 minutes in three straight games, and that kind of playing time should give Sabonis a solid chance to return value given his average of 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Good luck!
Photo via Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
