The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate features a lot of top-end talent, with seven players on FanDuel possessing salaries of at least $9,900. Of those players, Russell Westbrook has probably been the most disappointing to start the season:
That said, his salary has dropped by $1,200 since the start of the year, and his current $10,600 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. Westbrook has historically destroyed value with a comparable Bargain Rating on FanDuel:
He has a strong individual matchup today against Kyrie Irving, who ranked 69th out of 79 qualifiers at PG in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) last season. Westbrook may not have the same consistently-high floor he had last season, but he still has one of the highest ceilings in daily fantasy hoops.
John Wall gets a matchup with the Cavaliers, who have been a disaster on defense so far this season: They currently rank 29th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. They’ve been particularly bad against opposing PGs, with only the Nets allowing a worse average Plus/Minus to the position:
Wall has also historically enjoyed facing off against the Cavaliers, owning a Plus/Minus of +2.48 over 10 matchups in the last three seasons.
Value
Jarrett Jack seems entrenched as the Knicks’ starting PG at the moment, playing at least 32 minutes in two straight games prior to getting blown out by the Rockets on Wednesday. He has an excellent matchup today against the Phoenix Suns, who were crushed by opposing PGs on FanDuel last season:
This is a strong pace-up spot for the Knicks as well: Their pace differential (paceD) of +4.3 is the second-highest mark on today’s slate.
Kris Dunn has returned value in each of his first two games, yet DraftKings has reduced his salary by $300 over that time frame. He’s commanded a usage rate of 28.5 percent so far this season, and players with a comparable usage rate and salary have unsurprisingly been strong values:
He saw 29 minutes in his last game, and that number will likely rise if he continues to play well.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder has a paceD of +2.7 today against the Houston Rockets, and he has historically provided a Plus/Minus of +3.50 on DraftKings in comparable pace-up situations. He is dominating possessions for the Hawks this season with a usage rate of 30.9 percent and owns a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings today.
Dennis Smith Jr. is priced down to $5,100 today on DraftKings, which represents his cheapest salary of the season. He’s had some brutal matchups recently against the Jazz, Clippers, and Grizzlies, although things won’t get much easier today against Jrue Holiday, who ranked third among PGs in DRPM last season. That said, Smith leads all PGs with a paceD of +5.9, and PGs with comparable paceD marks, minute projections, and salaries have historically provided solid value:
Shooting Guard
Stud
Similarly to Westbrook, James Harden just has not had the same fantasy impact this season, even after the injury to Chris Paul. He’s been priced down to $10,900 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Hawks, which is a salary he hasn’t seen since April of 2016. He’s currently averaging close to seven fewer fantasy points this season on FanDuel, so the decrease is certainly warranted, but there are still some reasons for optimism with Harden. He’s actually posting a career-high in usage rate at 35.0 percent but has been hampered by shooting just 41.8 percent from the field and 80.0 percent from the free throw line. Those numbers should eventually progress back to his career-averages of 44.2 percent and 85.3 percent, respectively. The other major changes for Harden have been his rebounding numbers – he’s averaging roughly three fewer boards per game – and the fact that Houston currently ranks just 16th in pace this season. The Hawks are currently ninth in pace, averaging 102.8 possessions per game, so perhaps Houston can regain their fast-paced ways today.
Values
Jordan Clarkson isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Lakers this season, but he’s doing his best to take advantage of the minutes he is seeing: His usage rate of 31.1 percent is the highest mark on the team. That’s resulted in an average of 1.02 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel this season, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. The Lakers are taking on the Nets today, making this a battle between two of the four fastest-paced teams in the league so far this season. Clarkson likely won’t need many minutes to pay off his current salary in today’s contest given the amount of expected possessions in this game.
Donovan Mitchell has SG eligibility on DraftKings, where he has scored at least 33.75 fantasy points in two of his last three contests. He closed last game over Rodney Hood at the SG position, which is a big deal for a team with playoff hopes. He currently leads the team with a usage rate of 29.3 percent.
Fast Break
DeMar DeRozan has been priced down to $7,100 in anticipation of his matchup against the Utah Jazz. Despite the fact that the Jazz are very strong defensively and play at a snail’s pace, DeRozan has managed to find success against them historically:
Myles Turner is likely out again today, which means Victor Oladipo will continue to be the main show in town for the Indiana Pacers. So far this season, he’s absolutely dominated the usage with Turner off the floor:
He leads all SGs on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent and has a paceD of +2.8 against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Tonight’s game between the Lakers and Nets will likely be one of the best for fantasy purposes. It currently leads the slate with a total of 227.5 points and has a spread of just 2.5. Players projected for at least 25 minutes in games with comparable Vegas data have historically been excellent values on FanDuel:
D’Angelo Russell may not be fully recovered from his injury, but that may not entirely matter: He scored 45.2 fantasy points on FanDuel in just 28.5 minutes in his last contest.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo has returned to earth a bit after a scorching start to the season:
That said, there are plenty of reasons to expect Giannis to revert back to his early-season form. He’s played only 57 total minutes over his last two contests thanks to a mix of foul trouble and game script after averaging 39 minutes per game over his first six contests. He also turned in his worst shooting game of the season last time out against the Hornets, making just five of 16 field goal attempts. He still has a usage rate of 33.6 percent on the season, and as long as he can maintain that level of usage he should be a fantasy monster given his production in the peripheral categories. His current $11,200 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
The Cavaliers’ early season struggles have had nothing to do with the play of LeBron James. He has a matchup today against the Wizards, a team he has historically enjoyed playing:
He’s always a strong target for cash games – he leads the position on FanDuel with a Consistency Rating of 90 percent – and his current $10,600 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Values
Josh Richardson is playing heavy minutes for the Heat this season, seeing at least 32 in all but one game this year. He’s been priced down all the way to $4,400 on FanDuel for today’s matchup against the Nuggets, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Kyle Anderson is typically playing 25-30 minutes for the Spurs, and, given his average of 0.88 fantasy points per minute, that’s more than enough time for him to return value at his current $4,300 salary on DraftKings. Manu Ginobili is also considered unlikely to play today, which could open up a few additional minutes on the wing.
Fast Break
Given the presence of LeBron and Giannis on today’s slate – it’s hard to compete with two guys who are good enough to go strictly by their first names – Paul George could wind up being overlooked. He leads the slate with 15 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and SFs with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically done quite well:
Taurean Prince is playing big minutes for the Hawks at the moment and has responded with at least 30.5 fantasy points on FanDuel in four of his last five games:
Despite seeing a position-high increase of $2,500 since the start of the season, Prince still seems like a value at his current price tag.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins have seemingly found a way to coexist in New Orleans: Don’t let anyone else touch the basketball. They have a combined usage rate of approximately 63 percent this season and are both finding success when sharing the court:
That said, these guys truly shine in the handful of minutes each game they spend on the court by themselves:
They have an intriguing matchup today against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs play slow – they currently rank 27th in pace – resulting in a paceD of -5.9 for the New Orleans big men. Interestingly enough, both of these guys have actually enjoyed playing in pace-down games, with Davis in particular exceeding value by an extreme amount:
The Mavs have also been one of the worst rebounding teams over the last two seasons, and they currently rank just 27th in rebounding this year. There’s a lot of value at the PF position, so most people will likely look to pay up elsewhere, which could result in lower-than-usual ownership for Davis and Cousins on today’s slate.
Value
The big news on today’s slate is that Larry Nance Jr. will miss some time with a fractured hand. With Nance off the court this season, both Kyle Kuzma and Julius Randle have provided excellent value at their current salaries:
Kuzma will likely draw the start and could see as many as 30 minutes in today’s contests, while Randle should have a chance for some additional minutes as well. Both players should thrive against Brooklyn, who has been shredded by PFs to start the season:
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis continues to crush despite seeing an increase in salary of $3,100 since the start of the season:
With Turner doubtful for this contest, the coast should be clear for him to continue playing big minutes in the Pacers’ frontcourt.
Tristan Thompson is expected to miss 3-4 weeks with a left calf strain, which could potentially lead to increased fantasy potential for Kevin Love. He’s posted a rebound rate of 22 percent with Thompson off the court this season compared to just 19.3 percent with him on the court, and Love was one of the biggest beneficiaries when playing without Thompson last year:
Finally, I have to stay on brand by bringing up the Ryan Anderson home/road splits over the last two seasons:
The Rockets are on the road today against the Atlanta Hawks.
Center
Studs
Joel Embiid has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, where he has posted a ridiculous Consistency Rating of 94 percent over the past year. He will play only about 28 minutes a game, but, given his usage rate of 32.6 percent and average of 1.56 fantasy points per minute, they’re typically 28 of the highest-impact minutes you’ll see on any given slate.
Milwaukee has the second-lowest rebound rate in the league this season, which should set up well for Andre Drummond today. So far this season, the Bucks have allowed the fourth-highest Plus/Minus to opposing centers on DraftKings:
Like most centers, Drummond seems underpriced on DraftKings, where his current $8,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Brook Lopez is another candidate to see increased minutes after the injury to Nance. He played 29 last night after failing to crack 24 in each of his five previous games, and his current $5,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel. The Nets have allowed an average Plus/Minus of +2.04 to centers on FanDuel this season. Pairing the Lakers big men with the studs at the other positions is likely to be the chalk strategy today.
Fast Break
Elfrid Payton is going to miss another contest for the Orlando Magic, which should result in Nikola Vucevic taking on a larger portion of the offense:
Vuc has had a few tough matchups recently against Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins, and Dwight Howard, but he shouldn’t have nearly as difficult a time today against Robin Lopez, who ranked just 48th out of 69 centers in DRPM last season.
The Mavericks have been willing to start Nerlens Noel this season against big teams, and no team plays bigger currently than the New Orleans Pelicans. He still likely won’t play many minutes, but he’s shown the ability to do damage in limited minutes before given his ability to rack up steals and blocks.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
