The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded at the PG position.
Russell Westbrook leads all players in salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is coming off a monster triple-double in his last contest against the Pacers. He has a matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have the worst defensive efficiency in the league through the early part of the season. He’s looked more like last year’s version of Westbrook in his last two contests, posting a usage rate of at least 32 percent and averaging 21 field goal attempts per game. He was a major value on FanDuel when comparably-priced last season:
The Warriors lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 121 points, and a total that large has historically led to fantasy success for Stephen Curry on DraftKings:
His $8,900 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.62 over his last four contests.
Value
Spencer Dinwiddie played 32 minutes and scored 40.25 fantasy points on Wednesday in relief of D’Angelo Russell, who is unlikely to suit up in today’s contest as well. With both Russell and Jeremy Lin off the floor this season, Dinwiddie has averaged just under 35 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Delon Wright has assumed an important role coming off the Raptors’ bench, playing at least 25.5 minutes in three straight games. The Lakers’ breakneck pace this season results in a pace differential (paceD) of +3.7 for the Raptors’ players today, and players with comparable salaries, projected minutes, and pace differentials have historically been solid values on DraftKings:
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder is questionable to return for the Hawks today, but if he does suit up he’ll find himself in one of the top spots of the day. Last year, the Nuggets were very generous to PGs with a comparable salary on DraftKings:
Schroder leads the Hawks with a massive 36.2 percent usage rate this season and draws an excellent individual matchup against Jamal Murray, whose Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -1.6 would have ranked 62nd among PGs last season.
Kemba Walker is in one of the top pace-up spots of the day against the Houston Rockets, resulting in a paceD of +4.7. Kemba has notorious home/road splits, averaging roughly 3.5 more fantasy points when playing in Charlotte, and he’s historically been awesome at home in comparable pace-up situations:
His Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.04 is the top mark among PGs on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden played roughly 41.5 minutes against the 76ers on Wednesday and needed every single one of them to return value on DraftKings. So far this season, his results in games without Chris Paul have left much to be desired:
That said, there are some encouraging signs here. His usage rate of 35.6 percent is actually an increase compared to his dominant 2016-17 season, and his assist rate of 48.1 percent represents a very small decrease. Playing against slow-paced teams has plagued the Rockets early in the season; they currently rank just 17th in pace after finishing third last year. Assuming that Harden maintains his current usage rate and assist percentage, he will almost undoubtedly increase his fantasy output as the Rockets amp up their pace.
Value
Calling Tim Hardaway Jr. a disappointment so far would be an understatement:
Still, it’s hard not to expect some positive regression for him moving forward: He’s shot just 24.3 percent this season on a career-high 12.3 field goal attempts per game. Today’s matchup against the Nets seems as good a spot as any for him to find success, as they currently rank first in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency on the year.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal has a paceD of +2.5 against the Warriors today and has provided solid value in comparable pace-up situations:
The Wizards’ implied team total of 110 points ranks fourth on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is taking on his hometown Washington Wizards today. So far in his career, he hasn’t exactly thrived in this matchup:
Even after removing the contest in which he left early due to an injury, he still has posted a negative Plus/Minus against the Wiz. That said, it’s hard not to consider Durant today, especially on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. His year-long Consistency Rating of 85 percent is one of the top marks at the position, and he’s historically been a reliable producer as a member of the Warriors when comparably-priced:
Value
The Nuggets have been extremely disappointing on offense so far this season, ranking just 23rd in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top-five last year. That has resulted in most of their players failing to hit value early in the season, and therefore getting priced at a reduced rate. One such player is Wilson Chandler, who is currently priced at just $5,100 on FanDuel. He’s historically been an awesome fantasy value with a comparable price tag:
Fast Break
You never know how many minutes players will get for the Brooklyn Nets, which makes them such a frustrating team to target in DFS. That said, they have two potentially interesting SFs on today’s slate in Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. LeVert has been playing roughly 30 minutes a game and will handle some of the backup point guard duties with D’Angelo Russell (questionable) potentially out again. He’s averaged just over 40 fantasy points on DraftKings per 36 minutes with Russell and Lin off the court this season.
Hollis-Jefferson, meanwhile, saw his minutes spike to 34.5 in his last game, and he responded with a Plus/Minus of +13.44 on DraftKings. We currently have him projected for roughly 30 minutes in today’s contest, and he’s historically been a nice value when projected for at least 27 minutes of court time:
He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings.
Trevor Ariza has already been ruled out of today’s contest for the Rockets, which should result in a nice spike in playing time for P.J. Tucker. He played roughly 32 minutes in his last contest without Ariza and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.45 on FanDuel when projected for at least 30 minutes of playing time.
Power Forward
Studs
The only guarantees in life are death, taxes, and the Spurs being good. LaMarcus Aldridge has been a force so far this season thanks to the absence of Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker:
His current usage rate of 29.6 is in line with his usage from last season with Leonard and Parker off the floor; he averaged roughly 45.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes on FanDuel in that spot. He should continue to serve as the focal point for the Spurs offense with both players still sidelined.
The Knicks have been hot garbage to start the season, but that hasn’t been the fault of Kristaps Porzingis. He leads the team with a usage rate of 31.9 percent and is averaging over 25 points per game at the moment; both of those numbers represent huge increases compared to his marks from last season. He has an excellent matchup today against the Nets, resulting in a paceD of +5.0, and Porzingis has historically smashed in comparable pace-up spots:
He’ll obviously need to do more than that to pay off his current $8,800 salary on FanDuel, but it’s good to know he’s historically done well in fast-paced games.
Value
Ryan Anderson played 35 minutes in the Rockets’ last game without Ariza and should be locked into a similar role again today. The fact that he’s playing on the road only increases his value, as his bizarre home/road splits from last year have continued into this season: He’s currently shooting 37.5 percent from 3-point range on the road compared to just 25.0 percent at home.
Fast Break
The Raptors are going to be without Jonas Valanciunas again today, which could theoretically open the door for more minutes for Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has been a disaster this season, failing to play more than 28 minutes in a game and averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.59 on FanDuel, but he does have an excellent matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. This is also a pace-up spot for the Raptors – the Lakers are tied with Brooklyn for the fastest pace so far this season – and Ibaka’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.99 is the second-best mark among PFs on FanDuel. If he can’t get right in this spot, he may not get right all season.
Frank Kaminsky continues to crush this season without Cody Zeller:
He’s another Hornet who should benefit from the pace-up spot against the Rockets.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns seems like a solid bargain today on DraftKings. He leads the slate with 14 Pro Trends and possesses a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and centers with comparable numbers in both categories have historically done well:
He has a relatively tough individual matchup against Steven Adams, although it may not be as tough as his reputation suggests. He ranked 23rd among centers last season in DRPM but has historically allowed a fantasy-friendly 1.1 fantasy points per minute and a Plus/Minus of +2.6. Towns has averaged over 47 DraftKings points per game in this matchup over the past two seasons, which would be more than enough for him to hit value at his current salary.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon has not played nearly as many minutes as anticipated thanks to the success of rookie John Collins, but that hasn’t stopped him from being effective in limited minutes. Given his average of 0.95 fantasy points per minute, he needs to see roughly 25 minutes of court time to pay off his current $4,400 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic has been priced down drastically on DraftKings for today’s matchup against the Spurs, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. While targeting players against San Antonio is typically not wise, Vucevic’s current salary and role may be too good to pass on. He’s averaged a 27.4 percent usage rate and roughly 46.5 fantasy points per 36 minutes on DraftKings without Elfrid Payton this season:
The potential emergence of Aaron Gordon does limit some of the appeal for Vucevic, however, as his two best games of the year have come with Gordon sitting out.
Clint Capela smashed in a very tough matchup against Joel Embiid last time out, putting up 54.5 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes. The large minutes count was partially due to the absence of Nene, who has already been ruled out for today’s contest. Capela has another tough matchup against Dwight Howard, but the potential for increased minutes likely outweighs the matchup concern.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
