This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Per the Vegas Dashboard, their current implied team total of 5.1 runs is the highest mark in the all-day slate. The weather is forecast to be scorching hot in Arizona tomorrow, with a current projected temperature of 104 degrees Fahrenheit, which should help hitters: Per our Trends tool, batters in comparable conditions in Arizona have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +1.44 and an Upside Rating of 22 percent on DraftKings. Paul Goldschmidt in particular should be a popular target against Padres left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard; his split-adjusted .418 wOBA and .202 ISO are among the best marks on the slate, and Goldschimdt has a historical DraftKings Plus/Minus of +4.18 at home when facing lefties.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack consists of the projected 1-2-3-5 hitters for the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are facing Twins right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has been hit well over his last two starts with an average batted ball distance of 215 feet, an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard hit rate of 53 percent, giving him poor 15-day/12-month differentials in each Statcast category. Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano have batted ball differentials of +23 and +21 feet, and batters with similar distance differentials and implied team totals comparable to Seattle’s 4.8 runs have posted a historical Plus/Minus of +1.68 on FanDuel. Cano also sports a Bargain Rating of 93 percent, one of the highest marks among second basemen on the slate.
If you’re looking for a more contrarian stack for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), consider the Detroit Tigers. They’re currently implied for 4.7 runs and have the top stack in DraftKings Pro Trends:
A lot of the appeal of this stack comes from their recent Statcast data. Returning from injury three games ago, Ian Kinsler has an average batted ball distance of 281 feet over that time span. Alex Avila continues to mash with an exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 57 percent over his last nine games. Justin Upton has a distance differential of +36 feet, and Alex Presley has a distance differential of +19 feet and a hard hit differential of +16 percentage points. A 1-2-6-8 stack avoids both Miguel Cabrera and JD Martinez and is likely to have low ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review across multiple buy-in levels using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
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