In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? He’s someone who uses our free Trends tool. [Editor’s Note: That wasn’t too heavy-handed, was it?]
John Daigle: Kevin Gausman, BAL, SP
If yesterday’s slate of pitchers were discount quarter-pounders, today’s are gas station sushi. Still, at least Gausman isn’t highly likely to make you violently ill.
Four pitchers (per the Vegas spreads) are implied to allow fewer runs than Gausman’s 4.1, but only Clay Buchholz has received a higher percentage of moneyline bets in the slate. Houston’s .287 projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is also bottom-three tonight. And, as if Gausman didn’t have enough going for him, Houston’s .291 strikeouts per at-bat place the Astros only .008 SO/AB behind the Brewers — the fermented sausage under the heat lamp at said gas station.
Also, per our advanced stats (accessible in our Trends tool), opponents have recorded a below-average 25-percent hard-hit rate against Gausman in his previous two starts.
This hypothetical gas station isn’t especially tempting, but a look at our free Ratings tool shows that at least Gausman has an 87-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. As I said earlier, Gausman probably won’t make you sick to your stomach.
Check out the rest of John’s recommendations in today’s Slate Breakdown.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: Jon Gray, COL, SP
Gray is in an interesting spot tonight. He would likely be the top pitcher on the board if he weren’t facing the Boston Red Sox, currently implied for 5.4 runs.
When I analyze pitchers, I usually use opposing Vegas runs as an idea of what Vegas thinks of that pitcher. I do that more than even using it as a measure of the offense. A pitcher slated to give up over five runs? He must be a bad pitcher.
But what if he isn’t? Gray has allowed a batted-ball distance of 194 lately, which is a whopping 18 feet down from his yearly average. And he also has a fairly high K Prediction.
I queried Gray’s stats in our Trends tool: How have pitchers performed when A) expected to give up at least 5.0 runs, B) in the 70th percentile in terms of strikeout potential, and C) possessing great recent advanced stats. Historically, such pitchers have posted a Plus/Minus of +0.16 in that situation.
However, the trend has a measly sample of only seven pitchers, indicating how rare Gray’s situation is. The models and Vegas line are screaming at me to fade Gray tonight, but I must admit that I’m still intrigued.
Be sure to check out Bryan’s Trend of the Day, coming soon.
Mitchell Block: Carlos Gonzalez, COL, OF
In a matchup with the always exploitable righty Buchholz, CarGo and his enticing .187 ISO Differential will look to build upon what has been a decent start to the Rockies’ trip to Boston.
The matchup is far from intimidating: Lefties against Buchholz have posted an average .393 wOBA and .500 slugging percentage. His recent advanced stats aren’t any better. Using our Trends tool, we can see that Buchholz’s Hard-Hit and Distance Differential Scores put him in the ninth and 14th percentiles respectively.
Despite his struggles on the road this year — Gonzalez has an average Plus/Minus of -0.6 away from Coors — we can take solace in the fact that he has been dramatically better against right-handed pitching. His average Plus/Minus of +0.1 vs. RHP on the road is far more palatable than his numbers as a whole, making his .322 ISO Split all that more attractive on this evening’s small slate of games.
For more Mitch Magic, check out his KBXE Review, coming soon.
The Anti-Mitch Magic Play of the Day
It’s not that Freedman disagrees with everything that Mitch just said, but . . .
Matthew Freedman: Clay Buchholz, BOS, SP
Buchholz indeed might suck, but I think that he makes for a great tournament play on FD, where he is seemingly overvalued and has a putrid non-bargain Bargain Rating of five percent. #OwnershipArbitrage
At the same time, he has experienced a delicious -$2,200 Salary Change in the last month, and per our Trends tool a drop in price that extreme at FD is A) rare and B) historically exploitable, with a massive +10.58 Plus/Minus on 56.3-percent Consistency.
Additionally, he is the only pitcher in the main slate who matches for my “pitchers who throw a lot of innings (and win)” FD trend, a rather straightforward and non-aggressive query that has a 2,766-pitcher sample, 3.01 Plus/Minus, and 58.3-percent Consistency.
As Mitch says, Buchholz might be exploitable . . . but in a very good way, and if exploiting Buchholz is wrong, I don’t want to be right. (That sentence might be the craziest statement I’ve ever made on this site.)
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA.
