The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: The 11-game early slate starts at 1:05 p.m. ET, while the three-game afternoon slate begins at 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Note: The LAA-TEX game is not included on the FanDuel main slate.
Pitchers
Studs
High-end options are thin, with just two pitchers on the main slates priced at $9,500 or more on FanDuel.
- J.A. Happ (L) $9,400, NYY vs. TOR
- Mike Clevinger (R) $9,000, CLE vs. BAL
Vegas is a believer in Happ, as the opposing Blue Jays are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs, and the Yankees have top-two moneyline odds of -229. His 6.2 K Prediction is below average relative to his price tag, and the projected Blue Jays lineup has a middling 24.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. Per our Trends tool, comparably priced pitchers with similar Vegas data and K Predictions have still absolutely smashed on FanDuel with a +9.46 Plus/Minus and 76.2% Consistency Rating. They’ve actually been under-owned as well, with only a 12.6% ownership rate in large guaranteed prize pools, so Happ could end up as an underrated tournament play as many entrants flock to a much shinier object at the top of the salary scale.
That shiny object is Clevinger. He’s in a nut matchup against a projected Orioles lineup with a slate-worst 28.3% strikeout rate and slate-low .255 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Unsurprisingly, Vegas has taken notice. The Orioles have a slate-low 3.2 implied runs, and the Indians check in with the largest moneyline odds of the day (-266) and 88% of the public bets. He’s an even better value on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating. Clevinger’s 7.2 K Prediction leads an underwhelming pitching slate, so I’d advise you not to overthink this one.
It’s really a shame the prize pools are so terrible on the afternoon slate today, because the pitching options are much more polarizing with Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw, though they are both in terrible matchups facing Oakland and Seattle, respectively. The most intriguing high-priced pitching option on the late slate, though, is probably Zack Greinke. He has the benefit of pitching at Petco Park (82 Park Factor), and his matchup is extra juicy against the Padres, a team that ranks 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season, according to FanGraphs. His 7.6 K Prediction leads all pitchers on the slate, and San Diego leads the slate by far with a 28.3% strikeout rate.
Values
At $7,600 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, Luis Castillo is underpriced as he takes on a San Francisco squad that is 24th in wRC+ against righties. Their projected lineup has managed just a .298 wOBA over the past year. Castillo’s K Prediction (5.9) isn’t great but is actually just outside the top tier on this particular slate, making him a viable value option.
Fastballs
German Marquez: He provides a ton of tournament leverage, as the Rockies are +121 underdogs facing Anibal Sanchez and the Braves. His 6.8 K Prediction is second-highest in the slate, and despite his underdog designation, Atlanta is implied for only 4.3 runs.
Rockies-Braves sets up well for pitching in general, as Sanchez is also squarely in play for tournaments. The matchup doesn’t come without risk — the Rockies have a top-two wOBA against righties over the past year (.335) — but Sanchez has decent strikeout upside (6.1 K Prediction). His Statcast data is also magnificent: 172-foot batted-ball distance allowed and 17% fly-ball rate.
Gio Gonzalez: He doesn’t have much strikeout upside (5.7 K Prediction), but the Marlins are tied for a slate-low 3.4 implied runs while the Nationals are the slate’s third-largest favorite (-220). This one may be a trap, however: Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have historically averaged a middling +1.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus at an inflated 18.1% ownership rate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, whose 5.4 implied runs trail only the Nationals (5.5). Minnesota also has today’s highest Team Value Rating.
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 2. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Max Kepler (L)
- 6. Logan Forsythe (R)
Total Salary: $20,800
They could be a chalky way to save salary, but it may be worth it, as the Twins are set to take on Tigers righty Jacob Turner. He has a comically bad track record over the past 12 months, including a slate-worst 4.032 WHIP and 2.90 HR/9 over that time period as a relief pitcher who has spent a ton of time in Triple-A as nothing more than an organizational depth piece.
The player most likely to take Turner deep is probably Sano. He has two homers over his past three games and owns a team-leading 50% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Rosario is on the right side of massive batting splits, with significant +0.096 wOBA and +0.125 ISO differentials over the past year. He’s probably due for some progression with a team-leading +55 Recent Batted Ball Luck.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Indians, who are implied for a healthy 5.4 runs:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Yandy Diaz (R)
Total Salary: $17,000
Cleveland will square off against Baltimore righty Yefry Ramirez, who owns a bottom-two 1.60 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also been getting rocked lately, with a 227-foot batted-ball distance allowed and 50% fly-ball rate over his past two starts.
Some of the Indians bats have dropped off from the tear they were on back in July, but this could be a prime spot to capitalize on recency bias. Ramirez leads the team with an elite .376 ISO against right-handed pitching over this past year, and he’s still doing his part to get the ball in the air, allowing a 57% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
The Nats’ implied total of 5.5 runs is the highest mark on the main slate, and two Washington batters are especially intriguing. No. 6 hitter Ryan Zimmerman has historically struggled against righties, but he has by far the best recent Statcast numbers on the team, including a 236-foot batted ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity, and 52% hard-hit rate. And then there’s Bryce Harper, who has been an incredibly reliable fantasy asset over the past month, averaging 12.6 DraftKings PPG with a 63% Consistency Rating.
Cardinals top-of-the-order hitters Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina will likely be popular stacking options even though St. Louis’ implied run total of 4.4 is outside the top tier, as both are on the positive side of their batting splits. Carpenter probably carries more power with a split-adjusted .409 wOBA and .302 ISO over the past year. Molina has immaculate Statcast numbers, including a batted-ball distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 49%.
The Angels-Rangers game is not available on the FanDuel main slate for some absurd reason, but Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani are fantastic options on DraftKings in a game with an 88 Weather Rating. Both players are on the ride side of drastic batting splits and sport batted-ball distances of 234 feet or more over the past 15 days. Calhoun’s 61% hard-hit rate over that same time period is higher than anyone batting sixth or higher in the order on today’s slate.
If you’re sifting through bats on the late slate, you could do worse than the Diamondbacks. In particular, David Peralta (questionable has been hitting the cover off the ball lately. His average distance of 237 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 57% smash his 12-month averages with differentials of +26 feet, +2 mph, and +16%. Paul Goldschmidt is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but he could still provide upside in tournaments with impressive hard-contact numbers over the past 15 days. Te added bonus with Arizona bats is they don’t face the aforementioned Verlander or Kershaw on a small three-game slate, which seems +EV.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mike Clevinger
Photo credit: David Rachard -USA TODAY Sports
