In the MLB DFS Recent Form Report, we create trends with filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our free Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations.
The MLB DFS Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Wacha, Wacha, Wacha
If you ever played Pac-Man you remember the “Waka, Waka” sound Pac-Man made as he devoured dots on the screen while trying to avoid the deadly ghosts. Some demented person even made a clip of the sound extended for 12 hours.
Michael Wacha’s recent advanced data suggests that he should be dominating batters the way Pac-Man dominated the dots. Wacha’s average batted-ball distance allowed in the past 15 days has decreased by 20 feet (down to 186 feet), while his hard hit percentage allowed is down 12 points to an impressive 18 percent. Both of those marks are better than Jake Arrieta’s recent averages. His elite line-drive rate of 11 percent equals Arrieta’s.
Pitchers with comparable 15-day hard-hit and line-drive percentages have produced a highly desirable +6.96 Plus/Minus with an incredible 67.9 percent Consistency.
What’s more, Wacha has experienced a Salary Change of -$600 on FanDuel this month, likely because in that timeframe his per-game fantasy average has dropped 6.1 points.
Players in similar form who have seen their salary decrease by at least $100 on FanDuel have historically been good values.
Indians Chief
Corey Kluber has seen some improvements in all his recent advanced metrics. His average batted-ball distance allowed is down 34 feet and currently sits at an eye-popping 169 feet. Kluber’s exit velocity, as you might imagine, has also dropped four miles per hour and now sits at an appetizing 85 MPH. His 15-day hard-hit percentage has dropped six points as well.
Pitchers who have experienced similar changes in their advanced metrics have historically produced a +3.16 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Additionally, pitchers with comparably elite 15-day averages allowed have been good for an enormous +9.52 Plus/Minus with an extremely dependable 69.6 percent Consistency.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
In four starts in the month of June, Kluber has averaged 45.75 FanDuel points per game and has scored at least 57 points twice.
Kluber’s price on FanDuel has increased $1,000 this past month. When you factor in his price increase, somewhat surprisingly his expected Plus/Minus and Consistency improve.
Not Your Average Joe?
Joe Ross has been getting hammered lately. His hard-hit percentage allowed has increased 10 points all the way up to a scary 40 percent over his last four starts. Furthermore, both Ross’ distance allowed and exit velocity have increased the past 15 days.
However, despite these recent increases, Joe’s fantasy output is up an average of 5.6 points per game this month and his price has increased by $200 on FanDuel.
Pitchers with comparable ‘increases’ across their advanced data have traditionally accounted for a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Players who have coupled those recent increases with a salary increase have a very ugly -4.46 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, albeit in a smaller sample size.
Max’d Out
Max Scherzer is a stud. He offers as much Upside as any pitcher taking the mound on any given day.
That being said, his recent form is somewhat concerning. Over his last three starts, Scherzer has seen a 21-foot increase in his batted ball distance allowed, a 15-point increase in his hard-hit percentage, and an exit velocity increase of five MPH.
Players with recent form similar to Scherzer’s have not returned value on FanDuel historically.
Batters
La Potencia
For his sake, Joe Ross better hope that he doesn’t run into Yoenis Cespedes anytime soon. (Note to self: The Mets play a three-game set in Washington beginning today.) Just as Ross is getting hammered, Cespedes is knocking the sh*t out of the ball.
Let us count the ways in which Cespedes is destroying the baseball lately: His 15-day hard-hit percentage has increased by 20 points up to a ridiculous recent average of 60 percent his last 11 games. His batted-ball distance is up 10 feet and his line-drive percentage has risen 13 points up to a desirable mark of 36 percent.
But apparently the harder Cespedes hits the ball, the lower FanDuel prices him, as his salary has dropped by $100 this past month.
Yet even with everything Cespedes has going for him, players with comparable recent metrics have only a modest Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
My Brother Brian and Marwinian Evolution
My older brother’s name is Brian, but he doesn’t play for the Yankees. I also don’t have a brother named Marwin, although ‘Marwin McCann’ does have a nice ring to it.
The other Brian McCann, however, is in exceptional recent form, and Marwin Gonzalez is right their with him.
Both players have increased their recent average batted-ball distance by at least 40 feet to a 15-day average of more than 250 feet. Both players’ exit velocities have increased by at least six MPH to over 95 MPH, and both of their 15-day hard hit rates have climbed to a recent average of more than 50 percent.
Players with comparable recent increases to their advanced data have performed at a moderate +1.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Players with similar 15-day averages for distance, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage have also experienced an unexceptional +0.44 Plus/Minus with an unpredictable 38.5 percent Consistency.
Denard’s Demise
Of all the batters who have played at least 10 games in the past 15 days, Denard Span has seen the most significant decreases to his average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage.
His 15-day averages currently sit at frighteningly paltry totals of 158 feet, 84 MPH, and 13 percent. Rightfully so, his salary has also decreased by $800 this past month.
Players with comparable recent averages who have also experienced a salary decrease of at least $100 have not exceeded value on FanDuel.
Conclusion
As always, head over to our free MLB Trends tool and see what you can discover on your own.
