The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday MLB action features a split slate. The early slate differs by site — FanDuel offers a four-game slate starting at 3:10 p.m. ET, while DraftKings’ four-game slate doesn’t start until 4:05 p.m. ET — but both offer an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s games feature four pitchers with a salary of at least $10,400 on DraftKings, but it’s not a group of names we’re used to seeing at the top of the pricing spectrum:
- German Marquez (R) $12,000, COL @ SF
- Mike Clevinger (R) $11,200, CLE vs. DET
- Rick Porcello (R) $10,500, BOS vs. NYM
- Andrew Heaney (L) $10,400, LAA vs. SEA
The Giants have been pushing the limits of just how bad an offense can be. They’ve averaged fewer than 2.5 runs per game over their past 17 contests and rank dead last in wOBA against right-handers over that time frame. They’ve also posted the second-highest strikeout rate against traditional pitchers, so it’s not surprising that pitchers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.37 when facing them in September.
Marquez gets the pleasure of facing the Giants on Saturday and has been utterly dominant in the second half of the season. He’s pitched to an ERA of 2.63 and increased his K/9 to 11.72, and his 2.10 FIP suggests he’s been even better than his traditional numbers indicate. When you factor in that roughly half of his starts take place at Coors Field, you could argue he’s been the best pitcher in baseball recently.
His opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied for first on the day’s slate, while his K Prediction of 7.2 is tied for second. He’s also a solid -140 betting favorite. Sure, $12,000 is a lot to pay for Marquez given his limited track record, but it’s hard to argue against him as the top option of the day.
Clevinger is another pitcher who enters Saturday in impressive recent form. He’s allowed just four earned runs in his past three starts and has tallied 28 strikeouts in his past 18.2 innings pitched.
Clevinger has a nice matchup Saturday vs. the Detroit Tigers. They haven’t been as bad as the Giants recently, but their projected lineup has struggled to a .298 wOBA and 24.6% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction and opponent implied team total are identical to Marquez’s, and he’s also the largest favorite on the slate at -231. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.09 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
It’s harder to make a case for the other two studs. Porcello is taking on the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has posted a .321 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s also been roughed up a bit over his past two starts, and his resulting average distance of 228 feet represents an increase of +19 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Heaney is coming off a gem in his most recent outing, limiting the White Sox to just three hits while racking up 12 strikeouts over seven innings. That said, his recent Statcast data is not nearly as impressive. He owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +28 feet, and the Mariners projected lineup has averaged a .318 wOBA over the past 12 months.
Values
The Phillies’ Vincent Velasquez is one of the best values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95% — and he’s in one of the best spots, as well. He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, and their projected lineup has limped to a splits-adjusted wOBA of just .267 over the past 12 months. They’ve also been prone to whiffs given their strikeout rate of 24.6%, so Velasquez leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.2.
He also enters the game in good form. He hasn’t found success from a fantasy perspective — he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two starts — but that belies some excellent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of just 198 feet, which represents a decrease of -9 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.75 on FanDuel.
The only pitcher with a better Bargain Rating than Velasquez on FanDuel is Houston’s Charlie Morton, whose $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks, and has some of the best Vegas data on the slate: 3.4 opponent implied team total, -184 moneyline odds. His K Prediction of 7.0 also ranks fourth on the slate.
That said, his recent Statcast data is pretty terrifying. He’s allowed an average distance of 242 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +46 feet when compared to his 12-month average. That probably makes him best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fastballs
Yefry Ramirez: No pitcher on today’s slate enters in better recent form than Baltimore’s Ramirez, who owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -41 feet and hard hit differential of -13 percentage points. However, his pitch count could be an issue: He’s spent most of the past two weeks working out of the bullpen.
Jon Lester: The Cubs lefty has had a rough second half but has more upside than usual vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Their projected lineup owns a strikeout rate of 27.5% against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Lester is also a strong -214 moneyline favorite.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Yankees:
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 3. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 6. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 8. Luke Voit (R)
Total Salary: $21,500
They’re implied for 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the early slate. They have a great matchup vs. Blue Jays right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, who has pitched to a dreadful 1.62 WHIP and 2.57 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
The Yankees are also collectively in good recent Statcast form. McCutchen leads the way with an average batted ball distance of 254 feet, which represents an increase of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R) – questionable
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Yulieski Gurriel (R)
- 6. Marwin Gonzalez (S)
Total Salary: $14,400
The Astros are taking on Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Godley, and Houston owns the sixth-highest wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Godley has also been roughed up over his past two outings, allowing batters to compile an average batted-ball distance of 234 feet. The Astros resulting implied team total of 4.7 runs is tied for second on Saturday’s slate. Springer is currently listed as questionable, but he should be good to go after playing the full game on Thursday.
Other Batters
Chris Davis has been a disaster for most of the season, but he’s shown a decent increase in power after the All-Star break. Reynaldo Lopez has been significantly worse against left-handed batters this season, pitching to a 5.85 xFIP, and the Orioles are implied for 4.3 runs on today’s slate. Davis is priced at just $3,000 on DraftKings, which makes him a really cheap source of power in a strong matchup.
Alex Gordon could be another cheap batter worth considering. He enters Saturday in good recent form, owning a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +15 feet and hard hit differential of +13 percentage points. The Royals are also implied for 4.7 runs, and his matchup vs. Twins right-hander Chase De Jong puts him on the positive side of his batting splits.
Nolan Arenado is on the road and facing a big-name pitcher in Madison Bumgarner, which means most people won’t give him much consideration Saturday. That said, Arenado has crushed left-handers regardless of where he’s playing this season; He owns a .447 wOBA and .312 ISO against southpaws when on the road in 2018.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: German Marquez
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
