The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features eight games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out another weekend of late-Spring baseball action. All signs point toward a weather-free day of baseball.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Chris Bassitt ($8,900) New York Mets (-137) vs. Miami Marlins
New York Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday and looks to be in a prime position against the Miami Marlins. Miami is implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs with a 0.255 strikeout-per-at bat average. Bassitt, who is projected for 6.06 strikeouts, can certainly be a fantasy-relevant option Sunday, especially with an affordable $8,900 price tag on DraftKings.
In what has been an up-and-down first half of the season, Bassitt has a 5-4 record with a 4.01 ERA, 25% K rate, and 1.18 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Sunday’s matchup against the Marlins looks to be a get-right spot. Look for Bassitt to be very popular option at SP1.
Luis Severino ($10,300) New York Yankees (-155) at Toronto Blue Jays
One of the highest-priced pitchers on the slate, New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino, looks to have a more difficult matchup, facing the powerful bats of the Toronto Blue Jays. In 11 starts this season, Severino has a 4-1 record with a 2.56 ERA, 28.9% K rate, and 1.03 WHIP, which justifies his top-tier price tag. Keep an eye on the status of the Rogers Centre roof, which may have an impact on the conditions Sunday. Currently, Severino looks to be in an ideal pitcher-friendly venue, with Sunday’s matchup having the highest Weather Rating.
Further, Severino has win-bonus upside Sunday and should receive plenty of help from the surging Yankees bats. Projected for 5.91 strikeouts, Severino is definitely worth the spend-up.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Mike Minor ($5,800) Cincinnati Reds (+124) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Proceed with caution in looking at Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Minor on Sunday, who faces a tough Milwaukee Brewers offense in the batter-friendly venue of Great American Ballpark. Recently returning from injury, Minor has made three starts this season, posting a 1-2 record with a 7.36 ERA, 19.4% K rate, and 1.50 WHIP. Milwaukee can certainly score at will and is currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is the highest on the slate.
Projected for 6.06 strikeouts, Minor can quickly become a fantasy-viable option, especially with a discounted $5,800 price tag, and he’s likely to be low-owned. A risky choice, but rostering Minor could be the contrarian option that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kyle Hendricks ($6,100) Chicago Cubs (+129) vs. Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks comes in as one of the more low-owned options Sunday in a difficult matchup against the dominating Atlanta Braves. At $6,100 on DraftKings, Hendricks has seen a decline this season. In 12 starts, Hendricks has a 2-5 record with a 4.95 ERA, 15% K rate, and 1.30 WHIP. Sunday’s matchup might not be the best get-right spot for Hendricks, with the Braves implied for 4.8 runs and a .350 wOBA. However, it appears Atlanta might take the boom-or-bust approach, with the projected lineup posting a 0.272 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is among the highest on the slate.
Risk certainly doesn’t come without reward, and Hendricks might be the key to unlocking the slate Sunday, despite the tough matchup.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Luis Urias (5) ($3,600)
- Willy Adames (2) ($5,300)
- Andrew McCutchen (3) ($3,700)
- Christian Yelich (1) ($4,700)
- Hunter Renfroe (1) ($3,500)
Implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs, the Milwaukee Brewers offense look to be a top stack option Sunday, facing NL Central rival Cincinnati. The Brewers are scheduled to face Mike Minor, who has recently returned from injury and has only pitched three games this season with an ERA above seven. Despite a mediocre .316 wOBA, the top of the Brewers order is loaded with power and should kickstart Milwaukee’s scoring.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Brewers’ top-of-the-order comes at a very reasonable price, costing $20,800 for a five-man stack in one of the best venues for batters.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
In what looks like a spend-up from the Milwaukee Brewers, the Braves’ 1-2-3-4-6 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at $23,700 on DraftKings, the surging Braves offense gets a matchup against Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks with a 4.8 implied total. One word of caution surrounds the Braves’ boom-or-bust approach, with the lineup averaging 0.272 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
A very expensive stack, but expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Cedric Mullins OF ($5,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Corey Kluber)
Removing the Brewers and Braves in search of possible one-off plays, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins has the highest rating in our model. Mullins should be a popular option Sunday against Corey Kluber of the Tampa Bay Rays. Projected to bat leadoff, Mullins should kickstart the Orioles’ offense, which is implied for four runs. Look for the Orioles outfielder to be a great one-off option Sunday, despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Randy Arozarena OF ($5,800 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (Jordan Lyles)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing veteran pitcher Jordan Lyles, who has a 4-5 record with a 5.10 ERA in 13 starts with a 19% K rate and 1.52 WHIP, looks to be an ideal spot for Arozarena and the Rays, who are implied for 4.7 runs. Arozarena is slashing .257/.313/.419 with seven home runs. Despite the high price tag, Arozarena should be an easy choice for a ceiling outcome.
Riley Greene OF ($2,000 DraftKings, $2,000 FanDuel) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
When looking for value, recent Detroit Tigers callup Riley Greene jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Greene is priced at the minimum $2,000 and looks to be in an ideal matchup against Texas Rangers pitcher Dane Dunning. Despite Detroit being implied for 3.7 runs Sunday, at a minimum price tag, Greene can open up salary relief to unlock high-priced bats with top-tier arms or high-priced stacks.
