The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rowdy Tellez ($2,400): First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
The only hitter with a 98% Bargain Rating on this 12-game slate is Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez. Projected to bat sixth in the lineup, Tellez only costs $2,200 on DraftKings and is drawing nearly double-digit ownership. Capturing the value with Tellez who has upside given his 12 home runs this year, will make it easy to fit in the highest ceiling projected players.
Tellez will get the platoon advantage against Yu Darvish who has allowed four earned runs in back-to-back starts. After 16 wins last season, Darvish has half of that total this season as his WHIP has climbed to 1.28. Left-handed batters have a .342 wOBA against Darvish compared to a .289 wOBA for right-handed batters making this a great spot to buy low on Tellez.
Tim Locastro ($2,100): Outfielder, New York Mets
Priced $100 more than the stone minimum on DraftKings, Tim Locastro has an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Locastro is projected to bat second for the Mets who have a 4.5 run total against Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval. It has been a difficult year for Sandoval who has a 6-10 record with a below 20% strikeout rate for the first season in his career.
Locastro’s production has been hit-or-miss since being activated from the 60-day injured list earlier this month, but at this cheap price tag, he doesn’t have to do much to exceed his value. Last year was Locastro’s best year when it comes to his hard-hit rate.
He has already displayed a bit of his power with a home run in one of his 24 plate appearances this month.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Spencer Strider ($12,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel) at San Francisco Giants
Spencer Strider is in a class of his own on this slate when it comes to pitcher options. He has by far the highest ceiling projection among pitchers in both our in-house and THE BAT X projection models. In his most recent start against the Giants, Strider went seven innings allowing only one hit while striking out 10 batters and accumulating 38 DraftKings points.
Strider gets a rematch against the Giants tonight as he looks to capture his 15th victory this season. The Giants have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, while also ranking in the bottom 10 in runs scored and team wOBA. This is a fantastic matchup for Strider who can easily put up a repeat performance. To no surprise, he has the highest projected ownership for pitchers.
Mookie Betts ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
Winners of 19 of their last 22 games, the Dodgers are dominating offensively averaging 5.8 runs per game over that span. Mookie Betts is leading the charge with 15 double-digit DraftKings point games during the month of August. Betts has two or more hits in over half of his games played during that time. His dual-threat ability increases his ceiling in any matchup.
Having second base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and triple eligibility on FanDuel makes Betts incredibly easy to fit into all lineup builds. The Red Sox will start Kutter Crawford who has allowed a home run in three consecutive starts and maintains a 1.41 HR/9 this season. Betts is in a great spot to add on to his .423 wOBA, which ranks second in the league.
Over the last 30 days, Betts has an impressive .312 ISO and .514 wOBA against right-handed pitchers (via PlateIQ):
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Dylan Cease ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
After a career-high 14 wins in 2022, it has been an up-and-down season for Dylan Cease who has a 5-6 record with a 4.50 ERA. This is a great spot to take the discount on Cease as the Athletics rank dead last in runs scored and fifth in strikeout rate as a team. Cease is a -192 home favorite with the Athletics run total plummeting down to only 3.7 runs in this matchup.
Most of Cease’s production has come at home where he has a 3.79 ERA compared to a 5.32 ERA on the road. Everything is aligning perfectly for a great outing for Cease. He has the most Pro Trends for pitchers and is projected for 7.42 strikeouts, which is the third-highest on the slate. Cease is one of the best value pitchers with extreme upside on both sites tonight.
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Rafael Devers ($5,600 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Leading the way in our ownership projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers. Over the last eight games, Devers has been cooking with 14 hits, three home runs, and nine RBIs while accumulating 14.4 DraftKings points per game. He will get the platoon advantage against Dodgers right-handed starting pitcher Lance Lynn.
Since being acquired by the Dodgers, Lynn has been much better this season already posting a 3-0 record with a 1.44 ERA through four starts. However, he still struggles mightily with left-handed power hitters like Devers. This season, Lynn has allowed a .565 slugging percentage to left-handed batters compared to a .389 slugging percentage to right-handed batters.