The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($10,000) Houston Astros (-130) at Seattle Mariners
Hunter Brown is the only pitcher on the slate to crack the five-figure mark in salary, but his outstanding projections more than justify the price tag. He’s the clear leader in both median and ceiling projection on Wednesday’s early slate and tied for the lead in Pts/Sal.
Just two starts ago, Brown was $1,200 cheaper. He’s turned in consecutive strong performances that pushed his price tag up, and he also has his most favorable matchup of the young season on Wednesday. While the Mariners aren’t a bad offense overall, they have seven hitters in their projected lineup who have a 25% or higher strikeout rate against righties since the start of last season.
For a pitcher like Brown, who excels at missing bats (26% K rate), that’s a massive boost to his upside. With Seattle implied for just 3.6 runs, he’s also in a good spot for run prevention. The price point is a bit of a challenge, but if you can find the salary, Brown is a solid play for all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Tylor Megill ($8,700) New York Mets (-227) vs. Miami Marlins
There aren’t any truly cheap options on Wednesday’s slate that are projecting especially well, but relative to his Vegas data, Megill is pretty clearly underpriced. His Mets are the heaviest favorite on the early slate, while Miami is implied for just 2.9 runs.
A lot of that is due to the state of the Marlins offense, which is one of the worst in the league by any metric. It’s partially because of Megill himself, though. Since the start of 2024, he has a 3.67 ERA, but his xERA is nearly a full run lower at 2.82. He’s due for some positive regression in general, but the bad opponent and favorable pitching weather should further help that cause.
It’s somewhat challenging to find the salary for two expensive arms on today’s slate, but Megill is an excellent starting point since he’s a bit cheaper than the rest of the top options. That likely means he carries plenty of ownership, but there are enough options on the early slate where I’m not sweating that factor too much.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($8,500) Detroit Tigers (+128) vs. New York Yankees
It’s somewhat scary rostering pitchers against the powerhouse Yankees. The Bronx Bombers opened the season on a tear and lead the league in home runs and wRC+, among other offensive statistics.
However, they’ve been largely shut down by the Tigers in this series, scoring just two runs combined in the first two games. While part of that was a matchup with the Tigers’ Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, he was only involved in one of those contests.
Besides, Flaherty’s numbers aren’t that far off from his teammates. Since the beginning of last season, he’s had a 3.12 ERA and 30% strikeout rate and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. The weather (and park dimensions) in Detroit should also go a long way to limiting home runs, which obviously helps Flaherty’s projection.
Given the matchup, he should be a relatively contrarian play, which, coupled with his salary, gives him plenty of tournament appeal today.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
No surprises here, as the star-studded Dodgers are the only team with a total over five runs on Wednesday.
Of course, they also come with a correspondingly high price tag, making them hard to fit along with the slate’s expensive pitchers. One option is to opt for cheaper Dodgers players further down the lineup — Max Muncy ($4,000) has particularly strong numbers against righties — while another is to punt one of the pitcher spots.
Given the clear gap between the Dodgers and the rest of the lineups on today’s slate, rostering at least some of their hitters should be a priority one way or the other. They also get a guaranteed ninth inning of at-bats since they’re on the road, which further strengthens the cause.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Higashioka C ($2,600) Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
The combination of the matchup and his increasing price tag means Higashioka isn’t quite the free square he was a few days ago. Still, he has excellent numbers against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
I’m not excited to click his name by any stretch today, but it’s crucial to save salary somewhere, and at just $2,600, he’s one of the better options.
Xander Bogaerts SS ($4,400) San Diego Padres at Athletics (Osvaldo Bido)
While Bogaerts isn’t exactly cheap today, he’s certainly a value relative to his underlying numbers. He’s set to lead off for the Padres today, with San Diego having a 5.0-run implied total coming into the game.
That’s just slightly behind the Dodgers, whose leadoff hitter is more than $2,000 more expensive. Obviously Bogaerts doesn’t provide the same upside as Ohtani, but he might just be the better play when you factor in the price savings.
JJ Bleday OF ($3,800) Athletics vs. San Diego Padres (Randy Vasquez)
The A’s are also implied for right around five runs today, as they have a juicy pitching matchup in San Diego’s Randy Vasquez ($6,300).
Vasquez Has a 4.56 ERA and even worse underlying numbers since last season, with that discrepancy explained by his home park being extremely pitcher friendly. The A’s temporary home in Sacramento is not, so expect Vásquez to pitch more like his mid-5s SIERA and xERA than his stronger actual ERA.
Vasquez especially struggles against lefties, with a .418 wOBA allowed since the start of last year. That’s why I’m highlighting Bleday specifically, but the whole A’s lineup is worth considering.
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Pictured: Hunter Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
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