The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Webb ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-141) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Webb has emerged as an elite fantasy option this season, with three of his first five starts going for at least 28 DraftKings points. He’s always been strong in terms of run prevention, with an ERA under 3.50 in each of the past four seasons. What’s changed this year is strikeout upside, with Webb starting the season with a 32.8% K rate.
That’s probably unsustainable for him, as his swinging strike rate hasn’t jumped nearly as much. However, with his ability to limit scoring, a rate in the mid-to-upper 20s still makes him a solid fantasy option. That’s a realistic expectation given his swinging strike rate and the matchup against a relatively low strikeout team in the Brewers.
More importantly, there are not a lot of options on tonight’s slate. We’re a bit cautious with our projections on Webb and he still leads the slate in both median and ceiling projection. Which is to be expected, since the Brewers 3.1-run team total is the lowest on the slate.
Webb’s price tag is high enough he might not pay off for GPPs, but he’s a rock-solid cash game option. If he can sustain his strikeout rate, he’d obviously pay off in tournaments as well, but with that being unlikely, he’s not my first choice there.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
David Festa ($8,800) Minnesota Twins (-260) vs. Chicago White Sox
Just like yesterday, we have two options that stand out because of their matchup. The top two pitchers in Pts/Sal projection are Festa of the Twins and the Royals Michael Lorenzen ($7,300), who are facing the woeful lineups of the White Sox and Rockies, respectively.
Given the similar projection on both players, the choice ultimately comes down to how much salary you can free up. My preferred option, though, is Festa. Not only does he have better Vegas data, but he brings far more upside to the table.
In 73 MLB innings, Festa has a 27.6% strikeout rate. Lorenzen’s career mark is just 19.3%, and he’s been at 18% or less the past three seasons. Both should have a relatively easy time limiting runs, but I’m willing to pay a premium for the extra strikeout potential.
Of course, pairing the two together is a fine option as well. It’s not a reach to see them both outscore Webb from a Pts/Sal standpoint, while freeing up tons of salary for hitters.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,800) Milwaukee Brewers (+120) at San Francisco Giants
Intuitively, it feels off to pay nearly $10,000 for a pitcher whose team is an underdog in their matchup. However, the Giants/Brewers game has a total of just 6.5 runs, meaning neither team is expected to light up the scoreboard. That makes Peralta an intriguing option, even as a slight underdog.
Peralta has a career strikeout rate north of 30%, with a solid 28.9% mark this season. While that’s lower than Webb’s through the first month of the year, his swinging strike rate of 16.6% points to his mark being far more sustainable. If anything, he should probably have notched a few more punchouts this year.
On top of that, the Giants have struck out at a higher rate than the Brewers this season, expanding Peralta’s upside. They’re also implied for a bit more offense, making Peralta a higher-risk option. That makes him a solid GPP pivot from Webb that also saves a decent chunk of projected ownership.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
A matchup with German Marquez ($5,300) and the Rockies is the perfect get-right spot for the struggling Royals offense. Marquez has an ERA over 8.00 this season — and it’s not just because of his home ballpark. His park-adjusted ERA indicators are all around 5.00 as well.
As a team, the Royals wRC+ of 67 is better than only the visiting Rockies. However, they’re a much more talented group that seems to be collectively slumping and should get going at some point in the near future.
That creates an excellent buy low opportunity tonight as they’re implied for 5.1 runs, with cheap price tags across the board outside of superstar Bobby Witt Jr.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($4,300) Texas Rangers vs. Athletics (JP Sears)
Rangers sophomore slugger Wyatt Langford has big power in general, but especially against lefties. That makes this a great matchup for him against the A’s JP Sears ($7,700), whose 50% flyball rate is well above the league average.
Here are Langford’s numbers against lefties in PlateIQ:
Since we’re paying for his overall performance and not his numbers against lefties, we’re effectively getting a discount on him today.
Teoscar Hernandez OF ($4,900) Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (Michael Boyd)
Last night’s Dodgers-Cubs game produced a ridiculous 21 total runs, with much of that driven by the extreme hitting weather in Chicago.
We aren’t looking at conditions like that tonight, but it’s still a good spot for the Dodgers offense. They’re implied for 4.9 runs against left-hander Matthew Boyd ($8,000), with a guaranteed ninth inning of at-bats.
Crucially, Hernandez is one of the few Dodgers bats on the strong side of their platoon splits against the lefty, making him a solid choice. He could obviously be paired with his superstar teammates if you have the salary, but he’s a strong one-off option if you want some exposure to this game.
Byron Buxton OF ($4,600) Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox (Bryse Wilson)
Buxton is a high-variance option who is on pace for more than 30 home runs and 30 steals — with a 30% strikeout rate. Tonight’s matchup should ease some concern, though, as the White Sox’s Bryse Wilson ($5,000) has just a 15.5% K rate and a 6.38 xERA.
Buxton leads all outfielders in median projection and trails only Bobby Witt Jr. overall. With his $4,600 price tag, that makes him a borderline must-play, either alone or as part of Twins stacks. Minnesota’s 5.4-run implied total is the best on the slate.
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Pictured: Bobby Witt
Photo Credit: Getty Images
