The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Masyn Winn ($2,500): Shortstop, St. Louis Cardinals
As a 21-year-old rookie, Masyn Winn saw action in 37 games last season for the Cardinals. He managed a .172/.230/.238 batting line with two home runs and 12 RBI.
This season, as a 22-year-old, Winn seems a bit more comfortable at the plate with a .308/.321/.385 line through his first nine games. Winn has a low ceiling with just a triple in the extra-base hit column this season, but he rarely strikes out and is far down the shortstop salary chart.
The Cardinals take on righty Spencer Turnbull and the Phillies today. Turnbull is 13-29 over parts of six big league seasons with a 4.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. This could be a spot for Winn to notch his third double-digit DraftKings point game of the season.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zach Eflin ($9,900) at Los Angeles Angels
At $1,300 cheaper than the player with the highest projected ceiling (Blake Snell), Zach Eflin still provides high upside potential with a more palatable price tag.
In two starts this season, Eflin has failed to come close to that ceiling. He has allowed seven earned runs and three home runs through 12 innings.
Eflin set a career-high in 23 with 16 wins in his first season with the Rays. He notched an impressive 1.02 WHIP to go with a 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts. He finished in the top 7% of the league with a .270 xwOBA and a 3.4% walk rate.
Using PlateIQ, the Angels have a 27.3 K% against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. They have a very low run projection tonight. This is a get right opportunity for Eflin to return to his 2023 form.
Hitter
Ketel Marte ($5,500) at Colorado Rockies
Amidst the usual suspects at the top of the ceiling projections in Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr., Diamondbacks’ second baseman Ketel Marte has sky-high expectations in the Mile High City tonight.
Marte has earned those expectations with an impressive start to the season. He is batting .333 with a .994 OPS through the team’s first 10 games. He’s already swatted three home runs to go with three doubles and seven RBI. He has six games on the year with 12 or more DraftKings points.
The Diamondbacks get the Colorado jump with a high implied run total today against the Rockies and left-hander Kyle Freeland. Freeland is off to a historically rough start in 2024. He’s allowed 17 earned runs through 5.2 innings in his first two starts, both on the road. Marte and his fellow Diamondbacks will be in a lot of lineups today.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Jose Berrios ($7,100) vs. Seattle Mariners
If Jose Berrios can get back to his 2023 strikeout rate, he is a solid value at $7,100 tonight. Through two starts, Berrios has just eight punchouts after finishing 12th in the American League with 184 strikeouts last season.
The Blue Jays right-hander finished 2023 at an 11-12 record with a 3.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He had a 23.5 K% and 6.6 BB%. So far, through two starts in 2024, he has a 17.0 K% and 8.5 BB%.
Through 12 innings in 2024, Berrios has allowed two home runs and three earned runs. He faces a Mariners lineup that has scored two runs or less in four of its first 10 games. The model likes Berrios to have a positive Plus/Minus performance tonight.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Charlie Blackmon ($4,600) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Charlie Blackmon has notched four double-digit DraftKings point games on the season, all coming away from Coors Field. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, which gives him a lot of chances to take advantage of the friendly park rating at home.
In nine games this season, Blackmon is batting .306/.342/.444 with one triple and three doubles. The 14-year veteran has dropped off from his peak seasons with the Rockies but still managed a solid 2023 campaign, batting .279/.363/.440. His power numbers have diminished over the years, with just eight long bombs last season in 96 games.
The Rockies take on Zac Gallen today in Colorado. He has been lights out with just one run allowed in 11 innings through two starts.
Yordan Alvarez ($5,600) at Texas Rangers
It’s been boom or bust thus far for fantasy owners sticking Yordan Alvarez in lineups. He had a massive 38-point DraftKings game on April 3 but has failed to top 10 points in eight of his other nine games.
The Astros star is batting .256/.341/.513 overall on the season. He provides one of the highest ceilings on a nightly basis, as he has landed in the top 5% of hitters in xwOBA and xSLG each of the last three seasons.
The Rangers trot out left-hander Andrew Heaney to the mound today. Heaney allowed one earned through 4.2 innings in his lone start of the season. He finished 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 2023.
