The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes ($10,000) Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) at St. Louis Cardinals
There are three pitchers on the slate who clearly stand out above the rest, each of whom are projecting for around 30% ownership. Those three could be interchanged in any of those three sections fairly easily, though Skenes has the highest salary, making him a logical “stud” pick.
Skenes is having a slightly down year in 2025 compared to his Rookie of the Year 2024, but is still an elite arm. It almost feels silly to call his 2.74 ERA a “down year,” but that’s how high he set the bar last season. Some of that is due to the matchups he’s faced, with four of his seven starts coming against top-ten offenses.
The Cardinals also fall into that group, ranking tenth in wRC+ against righties. The bigger concern is that they’re 29th in strikeout rate, and Skenes’ K% has dipped below 25% this year. While he still projects well, it’s hard to pay off a five-figure salary without picking up plenty of punch-outs.
Still, St. Louis is implied for just 3.5 runs, which is tied for the lowest on the slate. That makes Skenes an extremely safe play, but it’s fair to question his GPP upside. I’ll have some exposure to him, but he’ll be the odd man out in many of my GPP lineups.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Chris Sale ($8,800) Atlanta Braves (-225) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Part of the reason it’s hard to pay up for Skenes is the presence of Sale. He has better Vegas data and a slate-leading K prediction that’s nearly two strikeouts ahead of Skenes.
Sale had a rough start to the season, allowing at least three runs while failing to top five innings in his first four starts. However, in his last three starts, he’s allowed just five runs over 16.1 innings, despite one of those taking place in Coors Field. His overall 4.84 ERA is a bit misleading as well, with all of his ERA indicators at 3.32 or lower.
More importantly, he’s missing bats at a high rate, with a 14% swinging strike rate and 29.3% strikeout rate. The Reds are a roughly league-average team in terms of strikeouts against lefties, which combines to create Sale’s slate-leading projection.
He’s the top pitcher in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection on Tuesday. He’s my favorite of the leading trio for all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zach Wheeler ($9,700) Philadelphia Phillies (-123) at Tampa Bay Rays
The last of the trio today is Wheeler, who finished second in the 2024 NL Cy Young voting to Sale. He’s off to an arguably even better start this season, with a 32.8% strikeout rate that’s third in the majors and a 2.48 xERA that’s a full run lower than his actual mark.
Today he draws a Rays team that ranks top 10 against righties in both wRC+ and strikeouts, creating a bit of a boom-or-bust spot for Wheeler. Tampa Bay can score runs, but they’re also liable to strike out plenty of times too.
That’s reflected in the betting lines, which have Tampa’s team total significantly higher than the rest of the opponents mentioned so far. Their four runs aren’t anything to shy away from — and could certainly come against the Phillies’ relievers — but it’s still a noteworthy data point.
Wheeler is also projected to have the lowest ownership of the group, though it’s very close and likely to change throughout the day. That makes him more of a GPP play than the other two.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
While the Royals scored just three runs as our top stack yesterday, they still paid off well for DFS. That was largely thanks to two steals each from Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr., which added an extra 20 points to the stack.
With the three best pitching options carrying hefty price tags, we’ll need the value provided by the Royals again tonight. Kansas City is implied for 5.2 runs, but their top five hitters are still priced at just $4,000 per player.
Get used to that for their series against the White Sox, who give the ball to Sean Burke ($5,400) tonight. Burke has a 4.91 ERA and 7.52 xERA on the season, so he’s certainly a solid matchup for the Royals.
This game also has the best weather for home runs on the slate, according to Weather Edge, which also helps the cause.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,300) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
I listed Marte in this space yesterday, and he put up a reasonable but unexciting seven points. However, the switch hitter is in a much better matchup today against Mets lefty David Peterson ($7,800)
Marte has some of the starkest platoon splits in the majors, and they immediately pop out in PlateIQ:
Last season he was a top-five hitter against lefties in terms of wRC+ and OPS and had a .342 batting average. Now he’s cheaper than he was yesterday, making him a priority play.
Alec Burleson 1B/OF ($2,700) St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Paul Skenes)
With three pitchers likely to dominate ownership today and lineups restricted to playing two of them, there’s obviously going to be an odd man out in any lineup you build.
I want to create some leverage against whoever that is by rostering a player (or more) against them. Not only will opposing players go underowned, but points scored for the hitter take away points from the pitcher, meaning one less thing you need to get right.
Burleson is more of an example of that effect than a play I’m excited about, but he’s cheap and fits around the Royals stack. He’s a solid option in lineups that fade Skenes.
Jorge Soler OF ($3,500) Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Urena)
The Angels’ offense could go a bit overlooked tonight with Mike Trout on the IL, but that might be a mistake. They have a solid 4.6-run implied total at home tonight but are even cheaper than the Royals overall.
Soler is set to hit third in their lineup, making his $3,500 price tag an obvious value. I’ll be mixing and matching their top hitters around Royals’ stacks in many of my lineups tonight, though. Toronto’s Jose Urena is a spot starter/opener with a career ERA just under 5.00, making this a very winnable matchup.
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Pictured: Paul Skenes
Photo Credit: Getty Images
